Unless you’ve been living under a rock (do we have any rock-dwelling readers?), then you should be well aware that I have an infatuation with Carlos Carrasco. It actually began last year, when I commanded you dear readers not to sleep on him in April, recommended him to deep leaguers over the summer, and then despite finishing the year with a gruesome 6.75 ERA, continued the love fest heading into this season.
A quick look at the player page of James Shields might lead you to believe that he has returned his draft day value for his fantasy owners. His ERA is only a tick higher than it was last year, his WHIP is exactly the same, and his K-BB% is virtually the same. But he’s only been the 39th best starting pitcher according to ESPN’s player rater despite being the 17th pitcher taken on average back in March. To be fair, there is value in a pitcher not being a bust. Shields owners are surely happier with what they’ve gotten out of him than are the owners of pitchers that he was sandwiched between in final ADP, Homer Bailey and Matt Cain. But because it might appear that Shields has been as good as people expected him to be and because he’s been good for four years now, his ADP is likely to be near the top 20 among starters again next year. And it would be a mistake to pay that price. Read the rest of this entry »
There are a few exciting names up today. You’ve got your Maikel Franco in Philly, your Joc Pederson in Los Angeles and your Daniel Norris in Toronto. They’ve been called up to the bigs! But, due to innings limits on young arms, and roster crunches on teams now as much as 50% larger, it’s fair to ask. Will any of these youngsters play regularly?
If you took a risk on Scott Kazmir on draft day, he has without a doubt surpassed every expectation you could have had for him this season. His rebound season last year was nice, but was not exactly too useful from a fantasy perspective. The peripherals suggested he should improve this year and he has certainly lived up to the pre-draft hype that some industry experts had for him.
Read the rest of this entry »
I am planning on publishing this piece on a weekly basis. I’ll be looking at a few interesting players. I try to work out for 30-45 minutes a day, so I will just watch a different player each time and give my thoughts on their game at the end of the week. This will not be a complete breakdown of the player, just what I saw. Also, I will probably be looking at average to below-average players to see if anything sticks out with them.
Why I watched: I noticed him while looking for pitcher with big curveballs. Looking at little deeper and found this:
Month:K%-BB%,GB%
May:4%,42%
Jun:9%,49%
Jul:12%,46%
Aug:10%,55%
A few days ago I released a way too early set of hitter projection values. Today, it is the pitchers’ turn. Truthfully, I wasn’t 100% sure I would release them. It requires a person using them to use their brain somewhat. I decided to go ahead and release and hope most people read a few lines of the article to understand how the spreadsheet is set up.
Notes on the data (PLEASE READ)
• I averaged the rest of season Steamer and/or ZIPS projections. Sometimes only one or the other was available so only one was used at times. The rest of season the projections are a good attempt at getting the player’s talent level right now. The values are close to the 2015 projection with the exception of the September numbers.
Right or wrong, significantly greater weight is given to how a player finishes a season than how he began it. If a hitter endures a second half swoon, he’ll be considered a prime bust candidate the following year, regardless of what he did during the first several months. The same goes for pitchers. Let’s discuss a trio of those second half starting pitcher busts in the American League.
No matter your league’s settings for starting pitchers, you’re forced to make decisions about whether to start or bench pitchers each time their turn in the rotation comes up. If you’re in a league with an innings or games started cap, you have to try to maximize the limited opportunities you have to start a pitcher. If you play in a league with no such limitations, the natural friction between the counting categories and the ratio categories forces you to make similar decisions. Sure, you can start Jake Odorizzi and take advantage of the tenth best strikeout rate among qualified starters. But his 4.23 ERA and 1.31 WHIP count, too.
The number one factor I consider when making such a decision is who the pitcher is facing that day. The strength of the other team’s offense against pitchers of my starter’s handedness usually determines whether I start or bench a pitcher I’m on the fence about. Matchup is probably the biggest factor for most fantasy owners when it’s not a must-start pitcher. I asked Twitter where the cutoff is for must-start guys. I got answers ranging from only Felix and Kershaw all the way to the top 25-30 starters.
Top 30 was sort of the number I had in my head. I recently wrote a fantasy football piece in which I examined how matchups affected fantasy production for the top 25 wide receivers last year. I just tested the correlation between a player’s weekly production and the strength of the opposing defense measured by pass defense DVOA from Football Outsiders. Some interesting results came from that exercise, but one thing that wasn’t a surprise was the lack of correlation between production and matchup for the top receivers. To amass enough points to finish the season among the best, a receiver has to accumulate points each week regardless of the opponent. Likewise, I thought the top starting pitchers would be matchup proof with the correlation growing stronger as we moved away from the elite guys. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s the last week before September call-ups, that frustrating nook of the fantasy season when playing time for DLWW candidates is subject to change. But in cases of our two veterans this week, one has just received what could be an extended opportunity to make an impact in NL-only leagues, while the other’s hot bat could make him an option in the junior circuit.
Read the rest of this entry »
Many of you are preparing for the head to head playoffs, which often involves looking at the worst couple of pitchers on your roster and thinking about what you want those spots to look like in two weeks. Even those of you in roto leagues are getting down to it and wondering how best to use the remaining innings you have available. In either case, a look at the schedule can be huge.
My method is to look at the free agents in my shallowest league, sort them by ownership, and move through the pitchers. It’s not the most rigorous method. I fail the people around me often.