It might be the start of the second half so far as real baseball is concerned, but for us fantasy folks, we’re deep into the middle of the 2015 stretch run. Whether you’re looking to plug in some spare parts to aid your efforts or just need some warm bodies to fill your roster as you mull a fire sale, here are two players unowned in the vast majority of leagues who could help your cause.
The usual fine print: The players in this column are typically better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS. Read the rest of this entry »
In 2013, I began polling you readers on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. The two groups were determined based on ERA-SIERA disparity, pitting the underperformers versus the overperformers during the pre-all-star break period. You can view the results of the first experiment here. For some strange reason, it appears I never actually calculated the results of last year’s experiment, but here was the original poll.
I came up with this idea given my faith in using SIERA over smaller samples, rather than ERA. I generally ignore ERA completely during the middle of the season and it’s interesting to see how everyone else thinks. Will the SIERA outperformers continue to outperform, perhaps due to continued strong defensive support or will the magic vanish? And is it just bad luck that is due to reverse course for the SIERA underperformers or are they being hurt by something that should continue to play a role the rest of the way?
My population group consisted of 97 qualified starters, which included some that are no longer in a rotation. I have decided to only include those who will remain a starter. Group A is composed of the 10 largest SIERA outperformers, while Group B is composed of the 10 largest SIERA underperformers.
Amazingly, the two groups have nearly identical SIERA marks, but a nearly three run difference in ERA. The outperformers have exactly half the HR/FB rate as the underperformers, along with a lower BABIP and significantly higher LOB%.
I frequently hear/read about the importance of strikeouts on DraftKings. A strikeout is worth two points on DK, so hitting double digit strikeouts is a good way for a pitcher to put up a good total for the day. But 10-plus strikeouts is obviously a good thing no matter how much a strikeout is worth. That’s why I’ve always found the seemingly shared idea that strikeouts are king on DK to be a bit strange. On the other major DFS platform, FanDuel, a strikeout is worth only one point, but the average pitcher score on FD is a lot lower than it is on DK, so the simple “2>1” math isn’t really relevant. Read the rest of this entry »
In pitching, you have your Matt Cains and you have your A.J. Burnetts — there’s no one way to be a good starting pitcher. Sometimes you have a wide arsenal of representative pitches, sometimes you have one excellent pitch and you find a way to keep throwing it over and over again.
Today, let’s give some love to the Matt Cains and find pitchers with many good pitches. Maybe we’ll find an undervalued guy or two.
First, we’ll use the “above-average” benchmarks set up here, with a low minimum to allow for short-sample pitchers to get into the list. If you’ve thrown your pitch 20 times so far this year, that pitch is eligible for this list. Then, the simple question is, is your pitch over the benchmark? Let’s sum the starters for swinging strikes first.
When it comes to fantasy, it’s an arms race, both figuratively and, well, often literally, as pitching depth remains a precious commodity in deep leagues. This week, let’s take a look at two hurlers, one a newcomer to fantasy circles, the other back from the fantasy dead, who can assist pitching-hungry owners in NL-only leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
Two prospects have recently been called up to fill holes in their respective rotations. While Jungmann was once a highly regarded prospect (ranked 70 overall by Baseball America in 2012) and has since fallen off, Wisler is across the board a top 100 prospect. Despite their different paths to the majors, both are up and are performing, so let’s take a look and see if either or both are worth adding. Read the rest of this entry »
Mike Montgomery is on fire. He has risen from the ashes of old Baseball America Prospect Handbooks to all of a sudden become a key piece of the Mariners’ rotation. Podhorzer tried to get you on board a month ago. Did you listen? You didn’t, I knew it. Well, you missed 38 innings of a 1.64 ERA and 0.89 WHIP including back-to-back shutouts. So the best is almost certainly behind him, but it’s not like he has to maintain a 1.64 ERA or he can’t be picked up. He could reasonably add two runs to his ERA and still be a plus asset delivering quality innings.
It’s rankings update time! We’re coming up to the midpoint of the season, which means there are only a couple of months left of baseball to be played ::sad face::.
My usual caveat on how I rank pitchers follows:
It’s essential to remember that ERA is not a skill. It’s just a result. So I don’t really care what a pitcher’s ERA is at the moment. What I’m really interested in is their peripherals and any changes in pitch mix and/or velocity. And even if their peripherals have changed, you then have to ask yourself if its sustainable. Again, more likely is that what we initially forecasted is what is going to be posted the rest of the way, though obviously this is not always the case.
As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.
Continuing with my Hail Mary Pitchers from last week, here are the final two categories:
Young Unknowns
The Young Unknowns are the shiny new toys who are having some success this year, but carry risk due to a lack of track record. That volatility could definitely burn you, but when you’re in Hail Mary mode, that upside is desirable enough to take on the risk. These guys won’t necessarily come cheaply because they aren’t failing, but they will usually still be cheaper than what a peak version of him with a track record would cost.
Danny Salazar, CLE – Salazar has so many appealing aspects to his profile that it seems ludicrous to find him on any kind of list like this, but his ERA is now at 4.06 after his start on June 23rd against Detroit (4.3 IP/6 ER). He has absolutely devastating stuff: 30% K rate, 6% BB rate, 46% GB rate, and 13% SwStr rate.
These are all in line with his work in 162 IP from 2013-14, but his primary issue from those seasons – a 1.1 HR/9 – has been even worse this year at 1.4 HR/9. His 16% HR/FB rate is a career-high and could be ready to move closer to the 11% league mark. He also cut his flyball rate from 42% to 36% so the volume of homers should definitely drop if he gets that HR/FB rate in check.
Today, I’ll do something I will rarely do. That is, recommend not one, but two pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery. I typically ignore such returnees, as our own Jeff Zimmerman’s research confirms what we already knew anecdotally – that in their first year back, they suffer serious performance declines. But in a deep league where you’re scraping the barrel and choosing between a near guaranteed mid-4.00 ERA just for the potential for a couple of wins and some strikeouts, the possibility, even if small, of someone league average or better instead looks more intriguing.
