The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Let’s rewind to spring training of 2015. It was one in which the hype became deafening for Taijuan Walker. He pitched 27 innings, allowing just two runs, for a microscopic 0.67 ERA. His underlying peripherals (ya know, the spring stats that might actually matter) were strong too, but it was most certainly that tiny ERA that took Walker from sleeper and breakout candidate into that risky territory in which he has to break out just to break even for his fantasy owners. So how were his new owners rewarded? With a luscious 4.56 ERA. Oops. His skills were excellent though and he managed to post a more respectable 3.69 SIERA. So is this the breakout year?

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I’ve been batting over .300 on bold predictions for a while, and I’ve also been getting crap for not being bold enough. So, in the honor of So So Def, I’ll stop slacking on my pimping, and I’ll turn it up.

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It’s time for another (and perhaps final) comparison between my Pod Projections and Steamer. Today we’ll look at another starting pitcher who I am significantly more bullish on by ERA than Steamer.

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3/14/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Strategy Section: John Smoltz on Pitching

• His amazing nickname before “Smoltzie” (3:05)
• Evolution of arsenal (4:05)
• Success of FB/SL guys (8:00)
• Slider manipulation & movement (10:30)
• Best way for FB/SL/CB guys to succeed w/out changeup (13:40)
• Did the slider or splitter tax your arm noticeably (16:00)
• Postseason pitching as a stress factor (18:00)
• The SP-RP-SP transition (19:25)
• Closer vs. Setup/Middle Relief warm-up patterns (21:33)
• Today’s Elite RPs as Potential SPs (24:10)
• Preparation Needed for SP-to-RP Switch (27:12)
• Command (28:50)
• More ideal: 1 Dominant Pitch or Diverse, Lesser Arsenal? (37:00)
• Two SPs on the Rise? (39:00)
• Nola v. Rodon (41:33)
• March Madness Tips [spoiler alert: take MSU!] (44:00)

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Keeper leagues are fun. But one of the hardest things to predict is rookie pitching performances because there are so damn many moving parts on a big league staff. Below are three arms that have very high ceilings but no clear path to a big league job this April. Still, their talents suggest they could be impact players for their respective clubs in 2016.

Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins: Minnesota is loaded with young bats but the club has yet to see the fruits of its (development) labor on the mound. That could change if Berrios impresses the coaching staff enough to break camp with the big league club. Just 21, the Puerto Rico native made 12 starts in Triple-A during the second half of the year. In total, he threw 166.1 innings — a fairly large number for a young arm so he could shoulder a respectable workload in his freshman year. Although he has a modest frame and solid control, Berrios should not be confused with a soft-tosser or command artist. He has a firm fastball and could be an impact player for the Twins in short order. ETA: May

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

After a breakout 2014 performance, Jeff Samardzija followed up with a stinker of a season. His ERA spiked by nearly two full runs, his SIERA jumped by more than a run, and his strikeout rate plummeted, as did his ground ball rate. It’s no surprise then that the RotoGraphs ranking crew don’t exactly agree on his 2016 value. His individual ranking ranged from a bullish 25 to a bearish 69, but a “split” (difference between high and low ranking) of 44, the highest mark among the top 45 consensus pitchers.

Despite his poor 2015 results, the Giants gave him a five-year contract. Let’s find out if a return to the National League and calling the most pitcher friendly park in baseball home can spark a rebound.

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Everyone loves value, and paying down at pitcher is quite popular — even in writer/expert leagues. Waiting on pitchers puts some extra pressure on hitting on value plays to offset the lack of a “true” ace. That’s not to say the following pitchers will perform like fantasy aces, but they do appear poised to outperform their draft positions — some by a significant amount, in my opinion. Each of the five pitchers highlighted below is being selected outside of the top-50 starting pitchers in NFBC drafts, just one is being selected inside the top-200 picks on average, and three of the five are being selected, on average, outside of the top-250 players.

*NFBC ADP data current as of March 10th. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to move on to the starting pitching side of the ledger for our next set of Steamer and I entries. For the pitchers, I’ll be comparing my ERA Pod Projection to that of Steamer to identify who I am significantly more bullish and bearish on.

First, we’ll start with one of the pitchers I am far more optimistic on than Steamer is. But before we dive in, I wanted to note some of the pitchers I skipped over. Chris Young, Royals version, topped the list, for obvious reasons. He breaks all computer models and is a perfect example of why it is often better to rely on human forecasts than computer ones. After Young was the man that came back from the dead last year, Rich Hill. Obviously, a computer system is going to struggle with his projection and is also unaware of the work he did on his mechanics last season that may have been behind his improved control. He’s a total crapshoot though and a complete shot in the dark, so he’s not really worth discussing.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

After subjecting three straight hitters to the Pod Projection process, it’s time to move on to starting pitchers. I have decided to begin with everyone’s favorite sleeper, Reds sophomore Raisel Iglesias. After coming over from Cuba, Iglesias has pitched just 36 minor league innings and 95.1 Major League innings. And despite a lackluster 4.15 ERA during his debut, the hype machine has been running all offseason.

Such a limited track record and unimpressive ERA doesn’t typically result in an NFBC ADP that equates to the 40th starting pitcher selected. So what we have here is our classic so-called sleeper, who isn’t going for sleeper prices. As a result, he’s no sleeper, as everyone is on the bandwagon. Are fantasy owners justified in their optimism?

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Fresh off of the Hank controversy, the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves starting down another tough story to spin: A second consecutive season under .500. The Brew Crew haven’t gone back-to-back on the losing side of the ledger since 2009-2010, and even those teams flirted with an even record. To find the last time the Brewers won 68 games and had little reason for optimism, you’d have to go back to a Ben Sheets-led 2004 squad, and that team had Sheets, who was awesome. That might not seem like an eternity ago, but this is a team that’s grown accustomed to being decent, if not good.

Projections don’t like their chances for a rebound in 2016, and the pitching staff is a big reason why. A year after landing in the middle of the pack for wins above replacement from pitchers despite their rotation ERA jumping more than a run, nobody seems to think the Brewers will be able to prevent opponents from scoring. Out a Mike Fiers and a Kyle Lohse without a big acquisition or marquee prospect banging at the door, that’s understandable.

It doesn’t mean there aren’t a few fantasy arms worth keeping an eye on throughout the spring. It just means Hank II might not be the only one having an accident or two at Miller Park.
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