Last week, I discussed the importance of randomness in DFS, and some strategies one can use to take advantage of the large amount of random variation that occurs in daily fantasy. I’d like to expand further on that topic today by delving deeper into the process of focusing on specific portions of player projection distributions.
Pitchers seemingly undergo true talent level changes far more frequently than hitters do, especially on a game by game basis. The velocity and movement of a pitcher’s pitches, along with his command, on any given day go a long way toward determining his fate. Let’s talk about two pitchers who struggled earlier in the year. One of whom we may never know for sure what the root cause of his issues were, while the other was almost surely injury related.
The summer is heating up which means the standings are starting to solidify in your league. Big trades are going down and you find yourself uncharacteristically indecisive – do I make this deal or not? Will it actually improve my team enough to matter?
We’re back from a couple of weeks on the DL, and just like actual baseball players, we got ready for our return by playing catch, though in our case it was with a couple of 9-year olds. Then, in our quest for the sabermetric equivalent of extended spring training, we sought a nice, easy research project of no particular consequence. The results of this project are set forth below.
The occasion for this particular project is the imminent return of Daily Fantasy Sports to the State of New York, where we reside. The story of how DFS came to disappear from New York in the first place and how it came to return is one about which we harbor numerous and abrasive opinions, all of which we will keep to ourselves for the moment.
We aren’t ardent DFS guys—it’s too time-consuming, too hard. But sometimes, we grow weary of our life’s work of translating the plays of Corneille into Estonian, and like to unwind with a twenty-five-cent sporting flutter. And sometimes, more to the point, our Roto season goes so sour so early—that’s you we’re glaring at, Randal Grichuk—that we need a diversion beyond what our efforts to keep our teams from finishing last provide. So we’re glad to greet DFS upon its return.
“What makes a man, Mr. Lebowski? … Is it being prepared to do the right thing? Whatever the cost? Isn’t that what makes a man?”
I know how that exchange ends, and you probably do too. Perhaps the Dude’s response to the other Jeffrey Lebowski, the millionaire, was, indeed, right. But maybe there’s something else — something I’ve concocted to make myself feel better. Perhaps what makes a man is the capacity to admit he is wrong.
I was wrong. About Jeremy Hellickson, specifically. In late April, I pegged Hellickson as someone who would regress in his strikeout rate (K%) based on his zone contact rate (Z-Contact%). Technically, I was right — Hellickson’s 75.7% zone contact rate as of April 24 has converged almost all the way back to his career rate of 84.6% (it currently sits at 83.1%).
It’s the change-up I was wrong about. Hellickson’s change-piece posted some filthy outcomes through the end of April. I claimed nothing about the pitch changed. I looked at velocity and movement. I didn’t look at location. Hellickson is spotting the ever-loving crap out of his change-up, and it has worked wonders for him.
Who’s inducing more swings and misses? Let’s take a gander at the American League starting pitchers whose SwStk% marks have most surged versus last year. Perhaps it’s added velocity, a new pitch, or change in pitch mix driving the spike. Let’s find out.
There are over 30 starting pitchers on the disabled list right now. I tabbed about 29 of them as fantasy viable, while understanding that the viability ranges substantially from 10-team mixed to 12-team AL or NL only. The point is that the pool has taken a hit in the first 2.5 months, as it does every single year. We haven’t seen the spate of Tommy John surgeries that struck the league the past couple of years, but there are plenty of injuries that can be severe without being TJ. The piling up of injuries takes its toll on waiver wires everywhere and lowers our barrier for entry to tab a guy worthy of bidding.
In April, an exemplary start from someone available on the wire isn’t instantly going to draw attention. You might not have anyone you’re ready to cut to make for him and if a guy wasn’t worthy of being draft a week or two ago, one strong start isn’t likely to change that opinion. Now 2.5 months in, you’ve got high-strikeout middle relievers bridging the gap on your latest injuries and all of a sudden you’re making eyes at Jered Weaver because he has a two-start week.
First things first, don’t pick up Weaver. Five relievers have more strikeouts than Weaver’s 46: Dellin Betances (59), Andrew Miller (51), Seung Oh, Kyle Barraclough, and Brad Hand (47). Hand’s 35.7 IP is the high in that group and still less than half of Weaver’s 75.7. Beyond avoiding Weaver, you really have to be ready to act fast on pitchers. Magnitude takes on a bigger role at this stage in the season when we aren’t afforded the luxury of waiting for a reasonable sample. Truth be told, this act first, ask questions later model is just the new way to play, even early in the season. But as options dry up, decisions have to be even quicker.
This method will produce some duds. We’re using small samples and picking up guys who are still on the wire in June for a reason (or reasons), but if you’re going to find this year’s Cody Anderson (3.05 ERA in 91.3 IP after coming up on 6/21 last year) or Erasmo Ramirez (joined rotation in mid-May, but had 4.96 ERA at this time last year before finishing with a 3.17 in 110.7 IP), you have to be ready to pounce. Here are a few pounce-worthy arms who may still be on your wire depending on league size.
Throughout his career, Danny Duffy has shuffled between the Royals starting rotation and their bullpen. Let’s compare his underlying skills in each role:
| Role | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | SwStr% | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | ERA | SIERA |
| Starter | 18.6% | 9.7% | 21.6% | 36.3% | 42.1% | 15.1% | 8.3% | 0.288 | 75.5% | 8.7% | 3.89 | 4.48 |
| Reliever | 31.2% | 7.1% | 21.7% | 43.4% | 34.9% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 0.298 | 79.2% | 3.4% | 2.08 | 2.48 |
Jeff Sullivan wrote about Matt Shoemaker last week, being one of the first (to my knowledge) to note that Shoemaker had recently ramped up the usage of his splitter. I’m reluctant to overdo it, but you should read that first. I’d also like to borrow one of the main points he made in order to better establish my narrative. I hope you don’t mind.
Sullivan noted Shoemaker’s increased use of the splitter in all counts. Which is great, because it’s arguably his best pitch. His slider is good, too — both induce an almost-equal percentage of whiffs per swing — but it’s the splitter that has coerced a meager .117 isolated power (ISO) in his Major League career. That’s a big part of it. More splitters means fewer other things, and those other things, as Sullivan noted, have generally been bad.
Traditionally, daily fantasy sports projections use average projected points as the primary method of evaluating players. While one can get a sense of a player’s consistency and upside based on their batting profile and game log, it is difficult to accurately and precisely project players’ upside in terms of DFS points and performance relative to each other.
