Statcast data is now everywhere and everyone seems to be using it in some form. While detailed pitch information has been available via Pitchf/x, full season batted ball data was missing. Now the batted ball data is leading to some interesting findings, but it’s not a true answer. So far, 12.6% of the batted balls is missing data. I wouldn’t see this as an issue if the missing data was evenly distrusted, but it is biased. I have made a simple correction to the data and now how have available corrected overall data and leaderboards.

I went over the procedure I used to correct the data in this previous article. Here is a quick review of the problem and corrective procedure:

• 12.6% of all the batted balls are missed by Statcast. No bunts or foul balls were counted though.
• Most of the missing data are weak infield popups and groundballs. As a general rule, weak, groundball hitters are missing the most data. For pitchers, groundball pitchers are obviously the ones with more data.
• I found the average value for all detected batted balls fielded by each position.
• If the data is missing, I replaced it with the calculated league average values.

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Let’s take a short break from my Pod Projection recaps (only two left!) to review another Steamer and I, where I identify players I’m far more bullish or bearish on than Steamer is. Carlos Rodon was a heavily hyped prospect after being selected as the third overall pick in the 2014 June Amateur Draft. He jetted through the minors so quickly, you would swear he never actually made an appearance. In fact, he recorded a total of just 34.2 minor league innings before making his Major League debut in 2015. It was an excellent debut, at least from an ERA perspective, so expectations were high.

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The leader is good, the leader is great. We surrender our will as of this date.

Rich Hill’s renaissance has been remarkable in so many ways. Despite justified skepticism entering 2016, he finished the season as the 14^th most valuable starting pitcher, according to our auction calculator. And he did so tossing just 110 innings over 20 starts. He made contributions in ERA, WHIP, and when he pitched, strikeouts, that were so substantial, that he ranked among the back end of #1 or the very best of #2 fantasy starters. And no intractable three-eyed blister with its own Instagram account could stand in his way.

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The reviews are almost complete and now we jump on over to my actual starting pitcher Pod Projection recaps. Today, I’ll start with Jeff Samardzija, whose ERA ballooned by nearly two runs in 2015. With a move back to the National League and a pitcher friendly home venue, he was as in good of a situation as possible to drive a rebound. Let’s see how my Pod Projection turned out.

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Alas, we made it to the last Pod’s Picks & Pans recap, as we conclude with the starting pitchers. Since I pride myself on my pitcher projections, I always feel pressure to deliver more accurate forecasts, and ultimately, rankings. Let’s see how things turned out this year.

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Matt Moore didn’t post jaw-dropping numbers in 2016, but the year should be viewed as a success. He had a rocky 2015 season coming back from Tommy John surgery, and he set a new career high with 198.1 innings split between the Rays (130.0 innings) and Giants (68.1 innings) in 2016. Staying healthy enough to knock on the door of 200 innings is a success in its own right. The surface stats and ERA estimators weren’t great, and he finished 60th among starting pitchers, but I’ll once again be firing up the hype machine for the once highly-touted prospect. Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday, I released my Way Too Early Rankings for starting pitchers. It’s by far the hardest position to rank this early in the offseason because there’s just soooo much information to incorporate. Part of this exercise was designed to have you call me out when I made a glaring mistake. I may have done so with Danny Duffy.

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Baseball’s supposed to be a simple game and it is in theory. But the deeper a person digs, the more complex it gets. ERA estimators like FIP, xFIP, kwERA, and SIERA came along to help explain the limits of ERA. The main issue with each metric is how to deal with batted ball data. More specifically, they fail at it. I tried to answer the batted data question with pERA but it only explained some of the differences. Even with all those attempts to fill in the missing data, some differences haven’t been explained. Today, I am going to fill in on missing gap while examining a pitcher’s breaking ball zone rate.

Today’s study will be sponsored by Michael Pineda and Robbie Ray. Each pitcher has posted good strikeout and walk numbers which historically has pointed to good ERA’s. Instead, they get hit around and their ERA’s are quite a bit higher than their estimators. Here are the career stats for the pair.

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In his first plate appearance he knocked a two run double that short hopped the deepest part of the ballpark on his way to a three hit, four RBI major league debut.  He registered Division, Championship, and World Series starts during his rookie season.  He has a career 3.16 ERA after his sophomore season, a talent for spinning various household objects on his finger, and his grandfather is a baseball meme.  Of course I am talking about Steven Matz, the 25 year old Metropolitan South Paw.

A few weeks ago I claimed Steven Matz ranked 7th among the top starting pitchers using xStats (xOBA, VH%, scFIP, etc).  This may have been a little controversial to some, and I know it brought a smile on a few others.  While that ranking was, more or less, algorithmic, I do stand by the assessment of Matz.  He is good.  He is very good.  He may be one of the most underrated starters right now, and that needs to change.

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The fun continues as the fantasy-like trades are piling up! Yesterday, the White Sox continued their fire sale by making a four-player trade, with Lucas Giolito being the centerpiece of their return. Heading into the 2016 season, Giolito was an elite prospect, ranking as the best in the Nationals system, thanks to a lethal fastball-curve ball combo. But a poor showing over a small sample in the Majors has dimmed his star a bit. Now rather than trying to rebound in the more pitcher friendly National League and a neutral Nationals Park, he’s going to have to regain his status in the American League in one of the most home run friendly parks in baseball.

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