Archive for Spring Training Notes

Spring Training Injuries & Notes (9/26/19)

The spring training fastball velocities are live and available in this spreadsheet with other spring training tidbits.

Note: I’m not sure not detailed and often I’ll be able to go with future notes. MLB.com had a nice free RSS feed with all of their stories and I could quickly find needed information. They ended the feed with no explanation. So now, I’m forced to go to each website to get information. I’m working on a solution but I haven’t found one I’ve liked.

Injuries

● I’m not tracking every injury unless it’s going to cost a position player some regular season time. For pitchers, I never assume they are healthy so they may see more notes. For example, Odubel Herrera has a hamstring strain but should be back in a week. I don’t care … for now.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 649 – Fireside Chat: SPs to Watch in Spring Training

2/22/19

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Spring Training Injuries & Notes (2/21/19)

I’m going to be working through news and game action this spring providing bits which may change a player’s talent or playing time projections.

Injuries

Carlos Martinez’s playing time and role are unknown after his latest injury.

Continuing concerns about areas of weakness around Carlos Martinez’s right shoulder prompted the Cardinals to transfer the right-hander to a two-week, no-throwing program that now puts his readiness for Opening Day in jeopardy.

Manager Mike Shildt relayed the change in plan on Tuesday, one day after Martinez was sent away for an MRI of his shoulder. Though the scan showed no change from a baseline test in 2016, the club is concerned about possible adverse effects if Martinez was to continue pitching through weakness in the surrounding muscles.

Martinez was candid, too, in telling the Cardinals’ medical staff that he “felt a little bit of inflammation and weakness” while throwing his last bullpen session. He won’t throw again until at least March 5.

This injury is not good for a pitcher with already suspect health. I wonder if it pushes him more towards the bullpen. I’d not be surprised to see his ADP drop from 126 to near 200 with the news.

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Hitters Who Need Replacement At-Bats

I’m finally at the point where I need to start working in replacement level production into my projections. Today’s focus is on hitters will miss a set time frame or just assume will miss some time. I’m not going to work in players who will miss time here and there (e.g.the Ryan Braun special) for this or that nagging injury. Instead, I’m focusing on batters who can be DL’ed and someone else can take their place.

To evaluate these players, their time off needs to be determined (my goal today) and then replacement level stats can be added in for these off weeks. The replacement level stats will be an average of the available waiver wire batters. While these replacement level players aren’t great, they will provide some production until the rookie/injured/suspended player returns. With every league being unique, owners are going to need to find this talent level for their own league.

And remember, these are my estimates (link to on-going updates). Each owner should make their own adjustments for their own risk tolerance.

Injured with a known time frame

Gregory Polanco: He had shoulder surgery in mid-September and had a seven to a nine-month recovery time frame with a mid-April to mid-June return.

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2018 Spring Training Starting Pitcher K% Surgers

Almost exactly six years ago, I published a study that suggested pitcher spring training strikeout and walk rates had some predictive value for the upcoming season. Not a lot, of course, but there was definitely something there that shouldn’t be ignored like the rest of spring stats. I looked at all pitchers who have logged at least 15 innings this spring, and then compared their strikeout rate to the Pod Projection strikeout rate. Let’s discuss the 10 starting pitchers that enjoyed the largest spikes. I’ll take a look back at the end of the season to see if these surges really were prescient.

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Spring Training Notes (3/23/17): Updated Friday Afternoon

This post will provide updated information on the upcoming draft weekend. I’ll update as I find relevant news over the weekend.

• A notice to those owners setting their Sunday waiver claims: I will be hosting a RotoGraphs chat every Sunday during the season from 8:00 pm EST for an hour or so starting this weekend. It will run every Sunday during the season. I may not host it every week but someone will fill in.

Friday Afternoon Update

Erick Aybar has opted out of his Twins contract meaning Eduardo Escobar will be the Twins the second baseman until Jorge Polanco returns from this 80-game suspension. As a replacement, owners could do worse than Escobar as a replacement. He’s projected for home runs in the high teens with a few steals.

Albert Almora Jr. seems to be batting 8th quite a bit. His value swings a ton depending if he is leading off or in the 8th spot (fewer AB and SB).

• Here are the spring training team stolen base totals with the new managers in yellow.

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Polanco, Murphy, and a Soler Eclipse of the Heart

Spring Training is interminably inching towards inevitable heat death. With the end of fake baseball comes the advent of actionable fantasy news. Introduction complete.

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Spring Training Notes (3/12/18) Diaz, Bush, Montgomery, & South Side Closer

Indians

The Indians have no desire to raise Yandy Diaz’s launch angle.

But the chanting for Diaz to put a few degrees of lift into his swing is not coming from manager Terry Francona and the Indians.

“The best way to mess him up is to try to get him to pull the ball in the air,” Francona told reporters in Goodyear, Ariz. “He won’t be the hitter he is. We know that.”

Diaz’s body builder’s physique is trapped inside the swing of a No.2 hitter. In Cuba, where he learned to play, he usually hit second. His right-handed swing is grooved to hit the hole between first and second base to advance the runner on first.

But no matter how hard Diaz hits the ball, the infield shift has largely neutralized his swing. Last season Diaz hit .263 (41-for-156) with no homers and 13 RBI. Nine of his hits went for extra bases.

Well great. No improvement here.

Rangers

Matt Bush is headed back to the bullpen after attempting starting.

Instead, Bush will be used as a reliever who will serve as a “bridge” in the middle innings and can pitch one-plus innings. Bush has been used strictly as a reliever in his first two seasons with the Rangers.

“We just feel that Matt is way too important to us in the bullpen,” manager Jeff Banister said. “Just his set of pitches, how he pitches, so we feel like that’s the best move for him as well as us as a team trying to structure the bullpen the best way we possibly can going forward.”

Bush may still be a nice pickup as a cheap middle reliever with a 100 IP workload.

White Sox

The White Sox are going to keep everyone guessing who’s going to be their opening-day closer.

Even with the experienced pair of Soria and Jones in tow, Renteria didn’t want to limit his closing options. He mentioned returning White Sox Juan Minaya, Gregory Infante and Danny Farquhar as players who saw high-leverage time last season. Chicago also has non-roster options such as Bruce Rondon, Jeanmar Gomez, Robbie Ross Jr. and has Luis Avilan — also acquired in the Soria trade — as options on the back end.

“I don’t want to tie myself down and say we won’t ultimately have a Minaya closing out a ballgame or an Infante or a Farquhar or whoever it might be in a particular situation, but I do know that those two young men have experience and have done it,” Renteria said. “Nate’s coming back healthy, capable of doing a lot of different things. Fortunately for us, our flexibility has improved. Through either experience, we’re gaining from the guys we have that fell into that role last year and the two men that are with us in Joakim and Nate.

I’m only going to target either Nate Jones or Joakim Soria. They’re projected for the best stats (about 10 K/9 and 3.50 ERA). I’ll prefer Jones and his 0.00 ERA with Soria posting one at 18.00 ERA. I’m betting on the White Sox playing the hot hand.

Yankees

Unless he completely falls apart, Jordan Montgomery will be given a Yankees rotation spot to start the season.

Coming off a campaign in which he paced all American League rookies in starts, strikeouts and innings pitched, Jordan Montgomery has all but secured his place in the rotation, manager Aaron Boone said.

Montgomery, whose next start will come on Sunday against the Marlins, has limited opponents to one run on five hits in 8 2/3 Grapefruit League innings (1.04 ERA). Boone said on Friday that he sees the fifth rotation spot as belonging to Montgomery.

“I viewed him as very much a front-runner for that spot,” Boone said. “We e really excited about not only the year he put together last year, but where we think he can continue to go. When I look at him, I look at him as one of our starters.”

He’s now a wild card heading into the season and these readings have me moving him down in my rankings.


Spring Training Notes (3/9/18): Archer’s Change, Astros at First, Brewers Leadoff

3/8/18

Brewers vs Diamondbacks

In the game, Christian Yelich led off with Lorenzo Cain batting second. In the three games when both have been in the lineup, Yelich has led off in each one. This lineup position will be a small hit to Yelich’s value. While he’ll get 30 extra at-bats during the season, he’ll start off the game with no RBI chances. Also, hitting after the pitcher limiting his opportunities even more.

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Spring Training Notes (3/8/18)

The Notes took a leave of absence while I was in Arizona for a few days. I spent most of my time on this article updating the spring training velocities, watching a couple pitchers, and waiting for my internet connection to return.

Astros vs. Nationals (3/6/18)

A.J. Cole
FB: 88-92 mph. Straight with nothing on it
CH: 78-81 mph. 12-6 break, threw it a lot, must of been working on it.
SL: 77-79 mph
Overall: His fastball is well below average with little movement or velocity. His breakers all move to the release side (slider), down (change), or both (curve). He no one to get excited over.

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