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Ewww, ugly board after the lock starters. And even some of the locks have wicked matchups (Hunter Brown, Sonny Gray, Bowden Francis, Cristopher Sánchez, and Brady Singer all facing top 6 offenses v. their respective handedness). The 2-x guys are either would-be 3-x’s who aren’t super trustworthy right now (Kutter Crawford,  Bobby Miller) or a complete wildcard who has impressed of late but still not sure we know who he is as a pitcher (Keider Montero). Just be careful out there, y’all!

Brayan Bello absolutely smoked the Jays tonight with 8 shutout innings, allowing just 2 hits and a walk with 9 punchies in his best start of the season. That doesn’t necessarily give me more confidence in Crawford, though, as he’s struggling more than Bello was ahead of this start. Crawford’s toting an 8.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 11% K-BB in his last 7 starts.

Miller was strong last time out (6 IP/3 ER/0 BB/7 Ks), but that was against Tampa Bay which is way different than facing Baltimore. He did still allow 2 HRs to account for all 3 of those runs. That’s a shakyyy 2-x reco. Just saying I could see it in 12s and 15s, but it’s more of an upside shoot-the-moon play. Hayden Birdsong and Cade Povich are even deeper Hail Mary shots.

I know Francis draws the difficult Red Sox, but he is absolutely dialed in right now and I just can’t see passing on the start: 1.91 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 26% K-BB in 33 IP since returning on July 29th. In that span, his ranks in those categories are 5th, 1st, and 7th in baseball (min. 25 IP).

Speaking of dialed in, Ryne Nelson’s been on fire even longer with a 2.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 21% K-BB in 62 IP since July 1st. He ranks 12th, 8th, and 18th in that time, though unfortunately is just 4-0 despite Arizona playing well and going 8-2 during those 10 outings.

By the way, MacKenzie Gore possibly finding his footing again with a 2nd straight gem (6 IP/2 ER/6 Ks, W v. NYY) on a night when Dylan Crews hit his first MLB HR and James Wood steals 3 bases as they go 4-for-8 with 3 RBI, 2 R has to give Nats fans some hope.

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We haven’t really seen Skenes limited so he’s still a full-go starter.

Bibee’s 2.86 ERA since May 13th is tied for 7th-best, juuust behind Wheeler and Ragans at 2.85 and Skubal at 2.83 in that same time period. I bring this up only because there was some concern about Bibee because of his 4.91 ERA in the 8 starts before that despite a solid 18% K-BB. The 1.3 HR9 was a big issue and he’s shaved it down to 0.9 during this current 17-start run.

Musgrove and E-Rod have looked a lot more like themselves over their last 3 starts and I’ve got them back in the lineup everywhere without incident. It doesn’t mean they are risk-free or anything, just that I’m once again trusting them at a level in line with their name value.

Arrighetti seems to have turned a corner with his 7 shutout IP v. COL which kickstarted a 3.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 24% K-BB in 58.7 IP after a rough 6.36 ERA through his first 13 starts that included two 7 ER starts.

TOR’s offensive surge of late is giving me some pause with mid-tier arms. I’m certainly open to starting Bello, but not racing to do so.

I consider myself pretty open to extreme runs on either end from just about any player over a given month, but I cannot fathom how many bold predictions I would’ve had to go through to get to Bido reeling off a 1.17 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 16% K-BB in his L4 starts (23 IP). And yet, here we are! I can see starting him in 10s in the right context, but it’s not a must in Cincy.

Leiter returns to the majors with the best possible matchup and he’s looked much better in the minors of late, highlighted by 44 Ks in his last 28 IP.

I barely trust Buehler in good matchups right now so I’m certainly not starting him v. BAL.

I’ll have my chat at 1pm CT today (Wednesday) if you have any questions!

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I am so sorry about dropping the ball on the 2-start sheet today. It slipped my mind this morning and I committed to some other tasks that ate up most of my day. Of the 2-start guys whose team didn’t play Monday meaning they can still be adjusted in the lineup at a lot of outlets, here is what I’m thinking:

• Pfaadt is starting everywhere even w/a tough NYM and LAD combo
• Lodolo is 15s and deeper eligible even w/OAK playing better in general and MIL lurking on the weekend, but there is big risk given his poor Aug. (8.84 ERA in 18.3 IP)
• Cueto is one of my favorite SPs ever so full bias on the table but at DET/v. SEA is enticing. DET’s young roster is playing better of late (5.6 R/G w/a 6-2 record in the L8), but I’d still take a shot in 15s where I’m trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
• Myers is starting everywhere. I know the sparkling 2.85 ERA isn’t fully supported by his metrics but even 5-6 IP w/3-4 ER in each outing puts him in a good spot to pull win.
• Manaea is a lineup lock right now so even though the at ARI isn’t easy, he can hopefully make up any potential damage w/the at CHW weekend start.
• Webb is a must-start in all formats, of course.
• Heaney has an amazing 2-step w/at CHW and v. OAK (again, all respect to OAK playing competently and their strength of HRs is Heaney’s weakness, but I’m still starting him everywhere).

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I’ll the run 2-start chart in the morning and there are definitely some guys I’m leaning away from today that do become compelling in weekly formats with their weekend starts. — I totally dropped the ball on this as my morning got away from me with a few others things I had to get done. I’ll still discuss the 2-start guys who start on Tuesday in Monday night’s SP Chart. I’m sorry, y’all!

Miller/Pepiot could drop 30 Ks!

Whenever I start sobering up on Keller, he reels me back in.

I was surprised by TOR’s success vR of late. It isn’t all Vlad, but it’s mostly Vlad. His 228 wRC+ is 2nd best vR in over that time, but hilariously almost 100 pts behind Judge’s 321!!!!

Madden is interesting, but it’s his MLB debut and then BOS comes calling on the weekend so I’m inclined to sit this week out and reassess on Sunday.

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For a full slate, this is a brutal board! Be careful out there if you’re streaming. Just 8 full recos, three of whom aren’t in my Top 50 SPs right now meaning they are far from sure things. The 1-2 x recos are just a mess between brutally tough matchups, poor recent performance, or both.
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We had Hurter listed for Detroit tomorrow, but he’s pitching right now–well, he just got merked by a comebacker right as I’m typing this. He taking some warmup pitches and seems no more Hurter than he was prior to today, but the bottom line is that he’s NOT pitching tomorrow. Maybe it’ll just be Maeda who was slated for tonight (Wednesday) originally?

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I just don’t know what to expect from Crochet innings-wise, so he’s no longer a must-start.

Only 8 full scale recos before things start getting dicey because of matchup or performance and sometimes both.

Look, I’m on the Tobias Myers Train. I’m not entirely sure how it’s working this well and I don’t think it will continue at this pace but I’ll trade some ratio regression for win opportunity w/MIL.

I know TOR popped off tonight, but I’m still feeling pretty good about Martinez.

Gotta see one from Verlander before slotting him in.

I had zero clue Cueto was still playing… it’s awesome that he’s back!

Still plenty of risk with Montgomery, especially with MIA hitting better of late.

Wednesday morning update: Skenes is starting tomorrow and German is going today… I’m not re-running the full board, so I just made the janky-looking update of slotting German in Skenes’ spot and removing all the x’s since I wouldn’t start him anywhere.

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Let me know if you have questions about anyone in the comments below!

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I posted the 2-start board separately on Sunday evening.
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I had some extra time this Sunday evening so I got the 2-start board done early!

Kikuchi has 24 Ks in 3 strong starts w/HOU (2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 16.7 IP) and this’ll be a huge test for talented lefty, but I’m running him everywhere.

Lack of offensive support for Woo is why he’s just 2-0 in his L5 despite a blistering 1.48 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 30.3 IP; even if I’m Ws chasing, I’d still start him.

Bradley suffering a fatigue-induced wear down or just 3 off-kilter starts (9.64 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 13% K-BB in 14 IP)? Can’t say for sure, but I’m gonna run the 2-start and then reassess.

While Houck only allowed 3 ER in his last 2 starts v. HOU and TEX, he still had just 4 Ks and 5 BB in the 12.7 IP of work. With the previous 3 duds, he’s at 4.85 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 1% K-BB in 29.7 IP over his L5. I realize he’s been excellent on the whole this year, but this is a brutal slate at HOU and v. ARI so I think there are some sits to be found out there. The sweeper ain’t sweepin’! Meanwhile the sinker and splitter have come in and out, too, leaving him nothing to rely on right now. He does setup

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