Starting Pitcher Chart – June 3rd, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
Added Sánchez to the 2-start chart for Wheeler (paternity leave); saw some stuff suggesting Landen Roupp was joining the 2-start party in place Verlander as now it looks like Verlander is just throwing a pen today and is penciled in for Sunday. Thus, it won’t be Roupp for 2 so I didn’t add him. That would line him up for a hideous at COL/at LAD next week. I still think there’s a decent chance Roupp gets the weekend start, too, if Verlander isn’t ready and since we’re Roupp tonight anyway, we’ll get the 2-step if it comes to pass in weekly lineup leagues.
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Starter Notes June 3, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | PIT v HOU | x | x | x | 75 | 2.15 | 0.92 | 20% | 19th | |
| 2 | Hunter Greene | CIN v MIL | x | x | x | 54 | 2.63 | 0.91 | 26% | 25th | |
| 3 | Carlos Rodón | NYY v CLE | x | x | x | 72 | 2.60 | 0.94 | 23% | 23rd | |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | TBR v TEX | x | x | x | 58 | 2.33 | 0.93 | 16% | 28th | |
| 5 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI at TOR | x | x | x | 59 | 3.32 | 1.31 | 19% | 7th | |
| 6 | Pablo López | MIN at ATH | x | x | x | 55 | 2.75 | 1.04 | 20% | 12th | |
| 7 | Freddy Peralta | MIL at CIN | x | x | x | 65 | 2.77 | 1.17 | 15% | 5th | |
| 8 | Tyler Mahle | TEX at TBR | x | x | x | 66 | 1.64 | 1.05 | 9% | 15th | Skills aren’t exactly blazing of late so the 1.95 ERA/1.13 WHIP aren’t terribly well-supported by his 7% K-BB in those 46.3 IP |
| 9 | Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU at PIT | x | x | x | 18 | 5.89 | 1.69 | 16% | 27th | Solid 22% K-BB in 16 IP outside of that insane 1 out/7 ER meltdown v. CIN incl. 20 Ks in his L2 |
| 10 | Shane Smith | CHW v DET | x | x | x | 57 | 2.68 | 1.16 | 13% | 17th | 5 BB really stung him at NYM |
| 11 | Cade Horton | CHC at WSN | x | x | x | 20 | 3.98 | 1.23 | 14% | 11th | Hasn’t allowed >3 ER in any of his 4 MLB starts |
| 12 | Spencer Strider | ATL v ARI | x | x | x | 14 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 15% | 2nd | He’s been OK and this is a tough matchup but he’s a rotation staple |
| 13 | Chase Dollander | COL at MIA | x | x | 38 | 6.28 | 1.42 | 12% | 18th | Solid on the road in 4 starts: 4.29 ERA/1.10 WHIP/27% K in 21 IP | |
| 14 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET at CHW | x | x | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 30th | Looking good in MiLB rehab and remember, SGL had a sharp little 4-start run to end 2023: 2.70 ERA/1.10 WHIP/22% K-BB | |
| 15 | Landen Roupp | SFG v SDP | x | x | 56 | 3.54 | 1.43 | 15% | 16th | Deserved more than 1 W in May w/a 1.73 ERA/1.19 WHIP/13% K-BB in 26 IP; Ks were light, but I love the 5% BB | |
| 16 | Michael Lorenzen | KCR at STL | x | x | 62 | 4.33 | 1.40 | 12% | 7th | I’ll definitely take on this start to get the at CHW on the wknd; more of a toss-up as a one-off | |
| 17 | Zac Gallen | ARI at ATL | x | x | 66 | 5.54 | 1.40 | 12% | 9th | We just have to divorce ourself from his name value as he’s at 4.78 ERA/1.37 WHIP since 2H of 2024; rosterable for sure, but no longer set-it and forget-it | |
| 18 | Tanner Bibee | CLE at NYY | x | x | 63 | 3.86 | 1.27 | 11% | 3rd | Sort of an AL Gallen and he’s been pitching pretty well of late but this is skippable | |
| 19 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL at SEA | x | x | 64 | 3.23 | 1.06 | 10% | 13th | Settled down after 3 ER in first 2 IP w/3.3 of 2-hit ball; no Ks and low W potential make mostly a ratios play | |
| 20 | Andre Pallante | STL v KCR | x | x | 61 | 4.23 | 1.36 | 7% | 26th | Essentially a poor man’s Sugano trading better W potential for worse ratios | |
| 21 | George Kirby | SEA v BAL | x | x | 8 | 11.42 | 1.85 | 12% | 14th | Let’s see where he’s at after 5-6 starts; at least hold even if you don’t start | |
| 22 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA at BOS | x | x | 64 | 3.06 | 1.52 | 8% | 8th | Survived 5 BB v. NYY and allowed just 7 ER all of May… schedule stays challenging though | |
| 23 | Tylor Megill | NYM at LAD | 53 | 3.52 | 1.36 | 19% | 1st | No longer slated for the step that would’ve included a trip to COL so I’m skipping this | |||
| 24 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA v COL | 51 | 8.47 | 1.67 | 5% | 29th | You cannnn bc it’s COL, but what are we really chasing here? | |||
| 25 | Bowden Francis | TOR v PHI | 55 | 5.04 | 1.36 | 12% | 10th | ||||
| 26 | Trevor Williams | WSN v CHC | 55 | 5.69 | 1.45 | 11% | 4th | ||||
| 27 | Jacob Lopez | ATH v MIN | 15 | 6.32 | 1.85 | 10% | 24th | ||||
| 28 | Brayan Bello | BOS v LAA | 40 | 3.83 | 1.63 | 4% | 24th | ||||
| 29 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD v NYM | 11 | 4.91 | 1.55 | 10th | |||||
| 30 | Ryan Bergert | SDP at SFG | 4 | 0.25 | 14% | 23rd |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
—
2-START CHART
2-Start Chart for the Week of June 2nd
| RANK | PITCHER | TYPE | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | Pitch+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 1 | HOU/PHI | 75.1 | 2.15 | 0.92 | 20% | 110 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 1 | at TOR/at PIT | 59.2 | 3.32 | 1.31 | 19% | 94 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 1 | SDP/ATL | 73.1 | 2.82 | 1.21 | 22% | 108 |
| 4 | Joe Ryan | 1 | at ATH/TOR | 63 | 2.57 | 0.83 | 26% | 105 |
| 5 | Carlos Rodón | 1 | CLE/BOS | 72.2 | 2.60 | 0.94 | 23% | 98 |
| 6 | Pablo López | 1 | at ATH/TOR | 55.2 | 2.75 | 1.04 | 20% | 114 |
| 7 | Drew Rasmussen | 2 | TEX/MIA | 58 | 2.33 | 0.93 | 16% | 101 |
| 8 | Tyler Mahle | 2 | at TBR/at WAS | 66 | 1.64 | 1.05 | 9% | 112 |
| 9 | Spencer Strider | 2 | ARI/at SFG | 14 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 15% | 87 |
| 10 | Dustin May | 3 | NYM/ at STL | 55.2 | 4.20 | 1.24 | 16% | 100 |
| 11 | Shane Smith | 3 | DET/ KCR | 57 | 2.68 | 1.16 | 13% | 101 |
| 12 | Michael Lorenzen | 3 | at STL/ at CHW | 62.1 | 4.33 | 1.40 | 12% | 103 |
| 13 | Zac Gallen | 3 | at ATL/at CIN | 66.2 | 5.54 | 1.40 | 12% | 103 |
| 14 | Tanner Bibee | 3 | at NYY/HOU | 63 | 3.86 | 1.27 | 11% | 97 |
| 15 | Brady Singer | 3 | MIL/ ARI | 58.2 | 4.60 | 1.33 | 10% | 98 |
| 16 | George Kirby | 3 | BAL/ at LAA | 8.2 | 11.42 | 1.85 | 12% | 102 |
| 17 | Tylor Megill | 3 | at LAD/ at COL | 53.2 | 3.52 | 1.36 | 19% | 99 |
| 18 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 4 | at PIT/ at CLE | 18.1 | 5.89 | 1.69 | 16% | 91 |
| 19 | Richard Fitts | 4 | LAA/ at NYY | 20 | 2.70 | 1.10 | 11% | 104 |
| 20 | Cade Horton | 4 | at WAS/ at DET | 20.1 | 3.98 | 1.23 | 14% | 99 |
| 21 | Tomoyuki Sugano | 4 | at SEA/ at ATH | 64 | 3.23 | 1.06 | 10% | 105 |
| 22 | Bowden Francis | 4 | PHI/ at MIN | 55.1 | 5.04 | 1.36 | 12% | 103 |
| 23 | Stephen Kolek | 4 | at SFG/ at MIL | 30.2 | 4.11 | 1.30 | 11% | 99 |
| 24 | Justin Verlander | 4 | SDP/ ATL | 52 | 4.33 | 1.40 | 9% | 91 |
| 25 | Jonathan Cannon | 4 | DET/ KCR | 60.2 | 4.15 | 1.35 | 11% | 102 |
| 26 | Tyler Anderson | 4 | at BOS/ SEA | 61 | 3.39 | 1.21 | 8% | 96 |
| 27 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | 5 | at CHW/ v. CHC | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| 28 | Luis Severino | 5 | MIN/ BAL | 71.2 | 3.89 | 1.23 | 10% | 98 |
| 29 | Jacob Lopez | 5 | MIN/ BAL | 15.2 | 6.32 | 1.85 | 10% | 101 |
| 30 | Logan Allen로건 | 5 | at NYY/ HOU | 49 | 4.22 | 1.59 | 6% | 94 |
| 31 | Germán Márquez | 5 | at MIA/ NYM | 53 | 7.13 | 1.64 | 5% | 95 |
| 32 | Trevor Williams | 6 | CHC/ TEX | 55.1 | 5.69 | 1.45 | 11% | 104 |
| 33 | Mike Burrows | 6 | HOU/ PHI | 8.1 | 8.64 | 1.56 | 3% | 102 |
TYPE Key:
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
Cygano time
I think you mean Cylor Megill day.
As noted in the comments yesterday and the chart above, Wheeler’s wife is expecting so they’re bumping him and moving Sanchez up so now he gets the two step this week
Updated Sanchy onto the 2-start board! He just goes right in Wheeler’s spot perfectly
looks like SGL is going tomorrow for Detroit
Rotowire has him going as the follower to Beau Brieske’s open, that’s the latest I had seen
and nooooow they have Hurter on the site behind Brieske so you’re right about SGL!
What exactly is the rationale for a 3x Mahle? Is it just that he’s gotten lucky and will continue to get lucky? That doesn’t make much sense to me.
Do you think he’s going to keep his 2.9% HR/FB, 232 BABIP and 86% LOB when his career averages are well off those marks?
I mean he’s gonna regress, but it’s also not blind pure luck where I think he’s some random #5 starter. Plus, I’m not afraid of TBR. I’m afraid of the park a bit, but it also hasn’t played CRAZY. I just can’t really see sitting him here w/out a stacked rotation
Mahle is a (not nice) 69th out of 82 qualified starting pitchers this year in SIERA. 67th out of 82 in K%-BB%.
He’s been very, very lucky.
I’m a big fan of both SIERA and K-BB but I stop short of just saying it’s all luck with someone when they’re succeeding w/out the backing of those stats. He has a 112 Location+, tied for 3rd-best in baseball, so he’s traded dominance for precision. I don’t disagree that the 3% HR/FB% will regress and a 9% K-BB is sketchy at best, but he is contributing to his success w/the command improvements. He is like a rich man’s Sugano.
I just think it’s playing a bit scared to sit him here in anything deeper than a 10 (I can see a 10-tm rotation easily having enough depth to sit him). Maybe if the TBR offense (or park, as it hasn’t played as scarily as we thought) was more threatening, I could see it and I’d def sit him v. a NYY/ARI/CHC/LAD-type situation, but I’m good to run him here and see where things go. From here he gets at WAS this wknd, CHW next wk, and then KCR and at BAL in the 2 following wks after that if the schedule holds. He’s a lineup fixture for the foreseeable future.
“He’s a lineup fixture for the foreseeable future.”
That’s where I disagree completely. A pitcher can “deserve” his good stats season-to-date by “being hot” and/or benefiting from a lot of good fortune (HR/FB, BABIP, LOB) and still project out badly for ROS, which is exactly what Mahle is.
Today’s 5.1 IP with 4 ER is the first step towards regression. His underlying stats show him to be a fringy 15-team streamer type and I’ll treat him as such until he shows otherwise in his underlying profile, not in his results.
No idea what 15 tm leagues you’re sitting him w/that upcoming schedule. No one denies regression from his level, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a usable starter. One bad inning tonight… he was DEALING through 5. Not gonna pretend it was preordained regression.
I have a feeling Bello is going to come up with a good start tonight – facing 7 RHBs and a team that Ks a lot. Tough call on pulling the trigger on a spot start to then open a roster spot for SGL tomorrow.
Super helpful readout and analysis! I might be the only one, so feel free to ignore, but adding Pitch+ or some other modeling+ metric to the Starter Notes table seems like it could be useful.
I have definitely considered it as I have that metric showing on the chart I use to make things, I just worried things were getting too cluttered w/the board so I trimmed it and only show it on the 2-step board. Let me play around w/things and see if I can squeeze it in there!