Do you ever bust your ass to finish your work super early so you can have a night on the couch watching tv w/your gf and go to bed early only to not hit the publish button and end up posting that piece the following morning?
Yeah, me neither……🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
Drop any questions you have in the comments. Feels like a pretty straightforward slate outside of the 2-x guys being tough decisions for shallower formats.
Not too many difficult choices out there. Bradish and Brown are kinda toss-ups for certain situations, but I’m mostly out on them right now. Cabrera and Rodón are probably more suspect than I’m letting on. I just feel confident enough to start both in all formats, albeit for different reasons. Cabrera’s getting the co-sign almost exclusively because of his core skills in this year’s small sample, while Rodón is getting credit for his longer term track record with a bit of his recent run adding confidence.
Got a super late start on the board tonight so please drop questions or comments down below and I’ll get to them throughout Wednesday morning or you can join my chat around 1pm ET where I’ll be answering questions for an hour or so!
Y’all, why do I keep starting Griffin Canning? Like what is this power he has over me?!
Tuesday morning update:
Yu Darvish is off the IL and starting for SDP… he is a toss-up for me depending on what other options you have with a slight lean toward getting him back in where you can. I’d say it’s 52/48 to the yes for me. I’ll be putting him back in my lineup after this start almost regardless of how it goes, though.
Not only is it a typically small Thursday slate, but it’s very straightforward, too. Nine of the 13 recommendations got the 3-x treatment as they are either fantasy aces or really solid fantasy options with an elite matchup like Nasty Nestor facing the A’s. And the three 1-x guys are really longshots that you probably won’t (and shouldn’t) start in most situations.
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At this time last year…
Hunter Brown had a 3.09 ERA/2.61 FIP combo through 4 starts, he wound up with a 5.09 ERA…
Drew Smyly had a 3.13 ERA/3.30 FIP combo through 4 starts, he wound up with a 5.00 ERA…
Johan Oviedo had a 2.22 ERA/3.79 FIP combo through 4 starts, he wound up with a 4.31 ERA…
Chris Bassitt had a 4.82 ERA/5.58 FIP combo through 5 starts, he wound up with a 3.60 ERA…
Corbin Burnes had a 4.55 ERA/4.38 FIP combo through 5 starts, he wound up with a 3.39 ERA…
Dean Kremer had a 6.20 ERA/6.50 FIP combo through 5 starts, he wound up with a 4.12 ERA…
David Peterson had a 7.36 ERA/5.51 FIP combo through 5 starts, he wound up with a 3.83 ERA…
Logan Webb had a 4.40 ERA/3.94 FIP combo through 5 starts, he wound up with a 3.25 ERA…
You get the point. This is obviously a random group of 8 pitchers and yes, I “cherry-picked” them in that I found guys who would help underscore my point. What is that point? That it’s early. That’s seemingly the point of everything I write or say in April and while I realize that might be a little repetitive, I think it’s necessary when I see the day-to-day reactions that fantasy managers have to both fast and slow starts alike. The constant standings watching makes manager antsy to “fix things” when patience with the vast majority of your roster is almost always the best idea. Cases like the 8 above are why I’ve really tried to narrow my thinking down to the next 2-4 weeks when it comes player analysis.
Who cares about “rest of season” with someone like Mitchell Parker? Let’s cross each successive bridge as we get to them. For now, I’m picking up the lefty for his start at Miami this weekend and we’ll assess from there. If he throws a gem, I might even start him at Texas next week given what he did to the Astros and Dodgers to open his career. He does line up for Baltimore after the Texas start so the challenges keep coming after this reprieve in Miami (knowing baseball and how silly she often is, he’ll get merked this weekend and bounce back with gems v. TEX & BAL).
From the examples above, we were never anywhere near cutting Burnes or Webb, but you better believe people were asking questions about “what’s wrong” with them, just as we’re seeing this year with the likes of Joe Musgrove, George Kirby, and Jesús Luzardo. And I’ll grant that all three might not bounce back this year, but I’m pretty damn far from even benching any of them, let alone cutting them. Conversely, guys like Griffin Canning (7.50 ERA), Garrett Crochet (6.37), and Logan Allen (5.06) are valid cuts in shallower formats, but don’t forget about them going forward as they could improve their HR rates and be the Kremers and Petersons of this year.
Hell, things move so fast at times that Crochet was the game’s next great ace 3 starts in (2.00 ERA, 21 Ks in 18 IP) and now we’re talking about cutting him in shallower leagues. Again, I know I’ve beat this point home a good bit just in this space let alone on the podcast and in my chats, but I just don’t want fantasy managers making unforced errors with bad decisions that can be avoided. I do want to point out that someone you cut turning it around doesn’t automatically make that a bad decision. As my friend Scott Pianowski points out, if you’re never cutting someone “too soon” in a shallow league, you’re likely holding onto guys too long.
The challenge of shallow leagues is the roster churning. Where you can wait out guys in the bottom quarter of your roster in 15s, you need to burn-and-churn in 10s and 12s hoping to strike gold on the next big breakout. Or even just playing the hot hand with similarly talented players. Sometimes you simply hold a guy in a 15 because there’s nothing better available, but in 10s and 12s, there is always someone with a similar profile talent-wise who might have a better schedule or is playing more often (that’s more a hitter situation, of course).
Don’t be too proud to pick up someone you previously cut if they’re rounding back into form. I can definitely see a situation where Crochet becomes appealing again. But his case is exactly why I’m done worrying about “rest of season” on late round or waiver wire talent. The landscape is far too volatile to have any kind of certainty that far out on most players. With Crochet, volume is always going to be a concern regardless of whether or not he gets back on track anyway, so we’re looking at 2-3 week pockets with him. And maybe, just maybe, the guy we started that list with can reverse what he did in 2023 and instead of a good start going awry, perhaps Hunter Brown can find a rhythm here soon and turn around his horrendous 9.68 ERA through 5 starts.
