Taking a partial holiday in that I skipped out on comments tonight so I can head back to the couch to enjoy HOU/SEA plus the hockey and basketball games going on. As always, I’ll gladly answer questions in the comments section if you want to know more about anyone. Heavy stud slate definitely makes it easier to skip doing the commentary, too!
It’s a pretty straightforward board on Thursday. Be careful with the landmines out there, even the 1-x recos but also guys like Waldron, Black, and Smith-Shawver who have moderately intriguing matchups. I just don’t trust them in any of those road setups. If you want to discuss anyone further, drop a comment and I’ll get to ’em throughout Thursday!
I wanted to see what kind of pitching has been available on the wire this year so I took a quick look. I used the NFBC’s Rotowire Online Championship which is a 12-team setup with 9 pitcher slots in the starting lineup and just 7 reserves, no IL or minor leaguers. I took the pitchers who were picked up in at least 25% of the 228 leagues in the contest, so 57 or more leagues. From there, I just calculated their results from the time they were picked up through May 21st. I realize that’s not perfect because some guys have definitely been cut so many teams might’ve missed some of the ugliness.
Just a note that the date listed in the chart is the Sunday they were picked up so the data starts the day after which is definitely worth noting because several of these guys threw gems on that Sunday which no doubt raised their bid price that night. Also there are some guys listed twice and that’s not an error, they had more than one period where they met the 57-league threshold. Obviously in comparison to last year’s non-stop rush of pitching prospects who came up and succeeded, this feels light, but even compared to a standard year it feels like we aren’t getting much. Streaming is no doubt a grind in 15-teamers right now and it feels like that is trickling down to 12-teamers, too.
Individual SP comments back tomorrow… but as always, I’ll answer as many comments as I can throughout the day tomorrow so if you have a question about someone, just let me know!
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.
What a treat on Thursday night. It’s a short slate, so you can focus all your attention on Jared Jones for the early game and then end the night with Tyler Glasnow’s start against the Reds.
Please pardon the Wednesday morning posting, I won’t name names but someone fell asleep.
“Hey Paul, you’re the only one who works on this piece, so if someone falling asleep prevented it from being posted, it can only be YOU.”
Oh… right. Well, I guess we’ll never get to the bottom of why it was posted late, but here it is nonetheless!
Deep board on Wednesday with all 11 of the 2-x guys being viable for 10-teamers but none being must starts in those shallower formats. Eager to see how Bradley and Gasser follow up their strong season debuts (MLB debut in the case of Gasser). I know Rogers gets the Tigers, but I just don’t trust him much anywhere at this point so even the 1-x reco is tepid. Let me know if you have questions on anyone else here in the post or later today in my chat!
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.
As we were talking through FAAB on Sunday night, my friend Gregg astutely pointed out that Oakland’s Win potential for their SPs is a lot higher than it was at the start of season. They now flaunt the best closer in baseball to maintain any leads they do get and they’re slugging the ball around a decent bit to obtain said leads. Mason Miller simply has a negative FIP!!! That’s right, FIP goes into the negative. He snatches runs off the board when he comes out of the pen. It probably goes without saying, but yes, his -0.17 FIP is the best in baseball. That tends to happen when you strike out more than half your batters (55% K rate).
On the offensive side, Brent Rooker is showing that last year was no fluke with a 1.021 OPS and 10 HR, good for 3rd and t-4th, respectively. He’s not the only one hitting, though, as their 55 HRs rank 4th in the league aiding them to a palatable 102 wRC+. In addition to Rooker’s 187 wRC+, they are getting big contributions from Abraham Toro (137), JJ Bleday (122), Tyler Nevin (116), and Shea Langeliers (114) as well as small sample gods Kyle McCann (211 in 39 PA), Brett Harris (126 in 42), and Esteury Ruiz (112 in 58) making the most of their time so far.
Unfortunately one of the prime beneficiaries of this improved outlook for Oakland, Paul Blackburn, hit the IL today with a broken foot. However, it does bring Joey Estes back up which is a full circle moment because that’s who Gregg and I were discussing on Sunday when he pointed out Oakland’s newly improved outlook. Estes has a HR issue that will make him risky even in the best setups, but a shiny season debut on Saturday (5 IP/1 ER/0 BB/5 Ks) plus this opportunity does at least put him on the deep league radar. He gets a trip to Houston this week which I’d pass on, but if you’re a fan in a daily moves league you might consider stashing before that start because if he surprises me and does do well against the Astros, there’ll be a lot of attention for his Colorado start at home.
