Category: SP Chart | Page 2 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Starting Pitcher Chart – April 4th, 2025

April 4, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Starter Notes April 4, 2025

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD at PHI	x	x	x	90	3.00	1.11	23%	9th
2	Max Fried	NYY at PIT	x	x	x	174	3.25	1.16	15%	17th
3	Spencer Schwellenbach	ATL v MIA	x	x	x	123	3.35	1.04	21%	21st
4	Jack Flaherty	DET v CHW	x	x	x	162	3.17	1.07	24%	30th
5	Gavin Williams	CLE at LAA	x	x	x	76	4.86	1.37	14%	27th
6	Shota Imanaga	CHC v SDP	x	x	x	173	2.91	1.02	21%	19th
7	Seth Lugo	KCR v BAL	x	x	x	206	3.00	1.09	16%	5th
8	Justin Verlander	SFG v SEA	x	x	x	90	5.48	1.38	12%	8th
9	Kevin Gausman	TOR at NYM	x	x	x	181	3.83	1.22	14%	11th
10	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI at WSN	x	x	x	181	4.71	1.24	19%	20th	WSN does run six lefties (well 3, and 3 switch-hitters) and that group comprise their 6 best hitters
11	Tylor Megill	NYM v TOR	x	x	x	78	4.04	1.31	18%	12th	Great at HOU in his season debut (5 IP/1 ER/6 Ks/1 BB)
12	José Soriano	LAA v CLE	x	x	x	113	3.42	1.20	11%	26th	Dominating CHW doesn’t add to my confidence, but I’m open to starting him anywhere
13	Max Meyer	MIA at ATL		x	x	57	5.68	1.42	11%	17th	ATL is still a scary offense despite their brutal start, but Meyer also has major upside so I’m OK to go at ATL while they’re down
14	Nick Martinez	CIN at MIL		x	x	142	3.10	1.03	17%	7th	A 3-run 6th inning (incl. 2-run HR v. Chapman) spoiled his season debut; 5 K/1 BB was nice, though
15	Zack Littell	TBR at TEX		x	x	156	3.63	1.25	17%	24th	Smoking COL at home doesn’t greatly change his outlook, but TEX is sputtering so I don’t hate a stream here
16	Tyler Mahle	TEX v TBR			x	12	4.97	1.42	11%	29th	Maybe the spring concerns had merit? Brutal 4 BB limited him to fewer than 2 IP in season debut
17	Jesús Luzardo	PHI v LAD			x	66	5.00	1.25	13%	2nd	I know he was brilliant at WSN, but let’s be very careful v. LAD
18	Mitch Keller	PIT v NYY			x	178	4.25	1.30	15%	1st	I don’t have any issue sitting him, even at home
19	Walker Buehler	BOS v STL				75	5.38	1.55	10%	15th	Not cutting off 1 start, but the debut was rooough and I’d like to see something before diving in
20	Jonathan Cannon	CHW at DET				124	4.49	1.33	10%	22nd
21	Osvaldo Bido	ATH at COL				63	3.41	1.09	14%	16th
22	Ryan Feltner	COL v ATH				162	4.49	1.34	12%	23rd
23	Jake Irvin	WSN v ARI				187	4.41	1.20	14%	3rd
24	Erick Fedde	STL at BOS				177	3.30	1.16	14%	6th
25	Randy Vásquez	SDP at CHC				98	4.87	1.51	8%	14th
26	Dean Kremer	BAL at KCR				129	4.10	1.24	13%	13th
27	Tyler Alexander	MIL v CIN				107	5.10	1.24	15%	22nd
28	Luis F. Castillo	SEA at SFG				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	25th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Starting Pitcher Chart – April 2nd, 2025

by Paul Sporer

April 1, 2025

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

It’s a very straightforward Wednesday with 6 of my Top 10 and 20 of the 30 landing in my Top 60 pitchers. Let me know if you have any questions or comments below! I stay on top of the comments so in a case like Monday where Thomas Harrington was called up, I’ll definitely get in there and give my thoughts if someone asks about them.

Starter Notes April 2, 2025

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	2024 wOBA RK
1	Tarik Skubal	DET at SEA	x	x	x	192	2.39	0.92	26%	24th
2	Paul Skenes	PIT at TBR	x	x	x	133	1.96	0.95	27%	29th
3	Zack Wheeler	PHI v COL	x	x	x	200	2.57	0.96	22%	16th
4	Garrett Crochet	BOS at BAL	x	x	x	146	3.58	1.07	30%	7th
5	Cole Ragans	KCR at MIL	x	x	x	186	3.14	1.14	20%	13th
6	Blake Snell	LAD v ATL	x	x	x	104	3.12	1.05	24%	4th
7	Framber Valdez	HOU v SFG	x	x	x	176	2.91	1.11	16%	9th
8	Dylan Cease	SDP v CLE	x	x	x	189	3.47	1.07	21%	26th
9	Pablo López	MIN at CHW	x	x	x	185	4.08	1.19	20%	30th
10	Luis Castillo	SEA v DET	x	x	x	175	3.64	1.17	18%	22nd
11	Zac Gallen	ARI at NYY	x	x	x	148	3.65	1.26	16%	1st
12	Hunter Greene	CIN v TEX	x	x	x	150	2.75	1.02	18%	24th
13	Sonny Gray	STL v LAA	x	x	x	166	3.84	1.09	24%	27th
14	Freddy Peralta	MIL v KCR	x	x	x	173	3.68	1.21	18%	13th
15	Ryan Pepiot	TBR v PIT	x	x	x	130	3.60	1.15	17%	28th
16	MacKenzie Gore	WSN at TOR	x	x	x	166	3.90	1.42	16%	28th
17	Zach Eflin	BAL v BOS	x	x	x	165	3.59	1.15	16%	6th
18	Clay Holmes	NYM at MIA	x	x	x	63	3.14	1.30	17%	21st
19	Yusei Kikuchi	LAA at STL	x	x	x	175	4.05	1.20	22%	23rd
20	Carlos Rodón	NYY v ARI	x	x	x	175	3.96	1.22	19%	1st
21	Jeffrey Springs	ATH v CHC		x	x	33	3.27	1.36	18%	16th
22	Jameson Taillon	CHC at ATH		x	x	165	3.27	1.13	14%	23rd
23	Sean Burke	CHW v MIN		x	x	19	1.42	1.00	20%	10th
24	Landen Roupp	SFG at HOU		x	x	50	3.58	1.37	10%	8th
25	Jack Leiter	TEX at CIN			x	35	8.83	1.71	8%	19th
26	Ben Lively	CLE at SDP				151	3.81	1.25	11%	4th
27	Easton Lucas	TOR v WSN				11	10.80	2.23	2%	26th
28	Kyle Freeland	COL at PHI				113	5.24	1.41	12%	3rd
29	Bryce Elder	ATL at LAD				49	6.52	1.63	13%	2nd
30	Connor Gillispie	MIA v NYM				8	2.25	1.13	9%	11th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Starting Pitcher Chart – April 1st, 2025

by Paul Sporer

April 1, 2025

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!

Read the rest of this entry »

Starting Pitcher Chart – March 31st, 2025

by Paul Sporer

March 31, 2025

Daily SP Chart archive

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.

The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

The 2-Start chart is a Monday feature ranking the expected 2-start pitchers. For now, the data is for 2024 until we start getting to 4-5 starts for guys. I am a bit riskier early in the season when it comes to 2-start guys. It does a bit more pressure on the ratios if you eat too many blowups, but we’ve got 6 months to work and ratios can move a lot all year long. And it’s not like I’m just frivolously starting any 2-start arm, either, just that I’ll take on some tougher starts to get the potential gem against one of the worst teams in the league.

—

Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!

Starter Notes March 31, 2025

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK 2024	NOTE
1	Tyler Glasnow	LAD v ATL	x	x	x	134	3.49	0.95	25%	17th
2	Cristopher Sánchez	PHI v COL	x	x	x	181	3.32	1.24	14%	21st
3	Drew Rasmussen	TBR v PIT	x	x	x	28	2.83	1.08	25%	28th
4	David Peterson	NYM at MIA	x	x	x	121	2.90	1.29	11%	29th	I’ll take on a lot of tough starts to get at MIA and D Pete’s v TOR this wknd isn’t close to the riskiest
5	Jackson Jobe	DET at SEA	x	x	x	4	0.00	0.50	6%	18th	Diving in headfirst with one of the best pitching prospects in baseball
6	Ronel Blanco	HOU v SFG	x	x	x	167	2.80	1.09	14%	25th
7	Kris Bubic	KCR at MIL	x	x	x	30	2.67	1.02	28%	13th	I’m in on the Bubic hype train this year
8	Ben Brown	CHC at ATH	x	x	x	55	3.58	1.08	20%	23rd	Him securing the rotation spot snuck up on me but I’m excited to see what he can do; easily running him here, interested in the 2-step
9	Chris Paddack	MIN at CHW	x	x	x	88	4.99	1.39	15%	30th	Still allowed 2.0 HR9 in ST, but 23% K-BB and 14% SwStr, too; not a slamdunk for 2-step w/v HOU
10	Bowden Francis	TOR v WSN		x	x	103	3.30	0.93	17%	20th	Will be watching to see if he can sustain a consistently low BABIP or if he can’t, does he have the skills to survive?
11	Kumar Rocker	TEX at CIN		x	x	11	3.86	1.54	15%	19th	Not a great landing spot for his debut, but I think I take it on to get the 2-step v. TBR this wknd
12	Brady Singer	CIN v TEX		x	x	179	3.71	1.27	15%	24th
13	Cade Povich	BAL v BOS		x	x	79	5.20	1.43	10%	11th	Strong spring earned him a spot, but the heat gets turned up immediately w/BOS & at KCR to start the season
14	Emerson Hancock	SEA v DET		x	x	60	4.75	1.34	8%	22nd	Super boring, but neither DET or at SFG completely scare me so might be worth the spin, mostly in deep lgs, though
15	Tyler Anderson	LAA at STL		x	x	179	3.81	1.29	9%	23rd	Definitely more of a deep league play but it’s not a terrible 2-step w/CLE on Sunday
16	Grant Holmes	ATL at LAD			x	68	3.56	1.19	20%	2nd	It’s probably prudent to sit him here despite how much I love him for the year… I would start him in a weekly to get MIA this wknd
17	Michael Soroka	WSN at TOR			x	79	4.74	1.38	12%	12th	Big start here to see where he’s at after 2 good, 2 bad starts in ST w/his last 2 being the duds; mega dud here would raise some alarm bells
18	Miles Mikolas	STL v LAA			x	171	5.35	1.28	13%	27th
19	Kyle Hart	SDP v CLE			x	0	0.00	0.00	0%	8th
20	Jordan Hicks	SFG at HOU				109	4.10	1.45	10%	8th	I just don’t want to deal w/the headache of Hicks as an SP
21	Sean Newcomb	BOS at BAL				10	6.30	1.70	-2%	7th	I gotta see something before I jump on board here
22	Luis L. Ortiz	CLE at SDP				135	3.32	1.11	12%	4th	Brutal spring included 15% BB and 1.5 HR9
23	Carmen Mlodzinski	PIT at TBR				50	3.38	1.18	13%	29th
24	Cal Quantrill	MIA v NYM				148	4.98	1.52	6%	11th
25	Martín Pérez	CHW v MIN				135	4.53	1.48	10%	12th
26	Germán Márquez	COL at PHI				4	6.75	2.25	-5%	9th
27	Joey Estes	ATH v CHC				127	5.01	1.23	12%	14th
28	Elvin Rodriguez	MIL v KCR				0	0.00	0.00	0%	13th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

2-Start Chart for the Week of Mar. 31st

RANK	PITCHER	TYPE	MATCHUPS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	Pitch+
1	Corbin Burnes	1	at NYY/at WSN	194.1	2.92	1.10	17%	106
2	Tyler Glasnow	1	ATL/at PHI	134	3.49	0.95	25%	102
3	Cristopher Sánchez	2	COL/LAD	181.2	3.32	1.24	14%	103
4	Drew Rasmussen	2	PIT/at TEX	28.2	2.83	1.08	25%	102
5	Jackson Jobe	2	at SEA/CHW	4	0.00	0.50	6%	97
6	Ronel Blanco	2	SFG/at MIN	167.1	2.80	1.09	14%	103
7	Kris Bubic	3	at MIL/BAL	30.1	2.67	1.02	28%	115
8	David Peterson	3	at MIA/TOR	121	2.90	1.29	11%	98
9	Grant Holmes	3	at LAD/MIA	68.1	3.56	1.19	20%	99
10	Brady Singer	3	TEX/at MIL	179.2	3.71	1.27	15%	99
11	Bowden Francis	4	WSN/at NYM	103.2	3.30	0.93	17%	102
12	Ben Brown	4	at ATH/SDP	55.1	3.58	1.08	20%	93
13	Kumar Rocker	4	at CIN/TBR	11.2	3.86	1.54	15%	104
14	Michael Soroka	4	at TOR/ARI	79.2	4.74	1.38	12%	91
15	Will Warren	4	ARI/at PIT	22.2	10.32	1.90	17%	103
16	Cade Povich	4	BOS/at KCR	79.2	5.20	1.43	10%	98
17	Emerson Hancock	4	DET/at SFG	60.2	4.75	1.34	8%	101
18	Germán Márquez	5	at PHI/ATH	4	6.75	2.25	-5%	96
19	Tyler Anderson	5	at STL/CLE	179.1	3.81	1.29	9%	98
20	Chris Paddack	5	at CHW/HOU	88.1	4.99	1.39	15%	113
21	Kyle Hart	5	CLE/at CHC	0	0.00	0.00	0%	–
22	Sean Newcomb	5	at BAL/STL	10	6.30	1.70	-2%	82
23	Luis L. Ortiz	5	at SDP/at LAA	135.2	3.32	1.11	12%	100
24	Miles Mikolas	5	LAA/at BOS	171.2	5.35	1.28	13%	108
25	Jordan Hicks	6	at HOU/SEA	109.2	4.10	1.45	10%	94
26	Martín Pérez	5	MIN/at DET	135	4.53	1.48	10%	104
27	Cal Quantrill	6	NYM/at ATL	148.1	4.98	1.52	6%	97
28	Joey Estes	6	CHC/at COL	127.2	5.01	1.23	12%	107

Starting Pitcher Chart – September 28-29th, 2024

by Paul Sporer

September 28, 2024

Daily SP Chart archive
Check out the August SP Rankings (outdated)

Final weekend, good luck everyone! Let me know if you have any questions in the comments.

For Detroit it was Brant Hurter/Tarik Skubal listed as probables, but then Hurter pitched on Friday night and them clinching moves Skubal to game 1 of the Wildcard (that feels amazing to type out). So I think they’ll just piece it together with guys like Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Kenta Maeda getting multi-inning looks.

Trying to make updates as I see ’em but I’m not going to remake the table so for example Beck replacing Snell will remain atop the list but be 0-x, of course.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 27th, 2024

by Paul Sporer

September 27, 2024

Daily SP Chart archive
Check out the August SP Rankings (outdated)

I’m stumbling into the finish line here, y’all. Not only did I fall asleep early Wednesday night, but then I had the post locked and loaded this morning only to schedule it improperly (it would’ve gone out overnight tonight). I’m sorry about that for those of you who were looking for a Thursday board. Here’s the Friday board and I’ll get the weekend one up on Friday sometime. Good luck down the stretch and never roster Angels pitchers! (Reid Detmers and Tyler Anderson ruined me!)

Casey Mize is listed for Detroit on the Probables board, but he relieved on Thursday so I really doubt he starts Friday, even for 1-3 IP.
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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 25th, 2024

by Paul Sporer

September 25, 2024

Daily SP Chart archive
Check out the August SP Rankings (outdated)

The studs are catching some tough matchups but outside of scenarios where you’re aggressively protecting ratios, I’d still definitely run ’em!
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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 24th, 2024

by Paul Sporer

September 24, 2024

Daily SP Chart archive
Check out the August SP Rankings (outdated)

I don’t think we can blindly trust every established name going on Tuesday, but there are a lot of options to consider across all levels with more than half the board getting some love for 12s and deeper.
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