I only wrote up the guys with 1-2 x’s. The 3 x’s are either locked studs or capable streamers with great matchups and most of the 0 x’s are easy skips. That said, I’ll gladly answer any questions if you want further discussion on anyone.
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We’re back from the All-Star break! I can’t believe the deadline is just over a week away, but don’t let that make you lose sight of the fact that there is still enough time to make major shifts in your standings. I know Justin and I hammer this point on the podcast, too, but it isn’t impossible to see substantial moves from the All-Star break on. Obviously, every situation is unique and I’m not going to pretend that some teams aren’t completely dead, but many aren’t and it sucks to kinda give up on a squad that ends up rallying only for you to realize that a bit more rigor in this part of the schedule when things like the new College Football video game and of course football itself start garnering attention (assuming you’re a football fan, of course).
| RANK | TYPE | PITCHER | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | at CLE/MIN | 116 | 2.41 | 0.88 | 26% |
| 2 | 1 | Garrett Crochet | at TEX/SEA | 107.1 | 3.02 | 0.95 | 30% |
| 3 | 1 | Chris Sale | CIN/at NYM | 110 | 2.70 | 0.95 | 27% |
| 4 | 1 | Cole Ragans | ARI/CHC | 116.2 | 3.16 | 1.14 | 22% |
| 5 | 1 | Bailey Ober | PHI/at DET | 100 | 4.14 | 1.08 | 21% |
| 6 | 1 | Reynaldo López | CIN/at NYM | 95.2 | 1.88 | 1.17 | 16% |
| 7 | 1 | Hunter Greene | at ATL/at TBR | 110.1 | 3.34 | 1.11 | 18% |
| 8 | 2 | Tanner Houck | at COL/NYY | 117 | 2.54 | 1.03 | 18% |
| 9 | 2 | Ranger Suárez | at MIN/CLE | 114 | 2.76 | 1.04 | 19% |
| 10 | 2 | Bryce Miller | LAA/at CHW | 109 | 3.63 | 1.06 | 16% |
| 11 | 2 | Erick Fedde | at TEX/SEA | 111.1 | 2.99 | 1.13 | 15% |
| 12 | 2 | Blake Snell | at LAD/COL | 35.2 | 6.31 | 1.43 | 16% |
| 13 | 2 | Mitch Keller | STL/at ARI | 114.1 | 3.46 | 1.25 | 15% |
| 14 | 2 | Jon Gray | CHW/at TOR | 86.1 | 3.96 | 1.32 | 14% |
| 15 | 3 | José Soriano | at SEA/OAK | 87.1 | 3.71 | 1.20 | 11% |
| 16 | 3 | Tyler Anderson | at SEA/OAK | 118 | 2.97 | 1.17 | 7% |
| 17 | 3 | José Berríos | TBR/TEX | 119 | 4.01 | 1.18 | 11% |
| 18 | 3 | Albert Suárez | at MIA/SDP | 70.1 | 2.82 | 1.24 | 10% |
| 19 | 3 | Michael Lorenzen | CHW/at TOR | 92 | 3.52 | 1.22 | 6% |
| 20 | 4 | Yilber Diaz | at KCR/PIT | 12 | 1.50 | 0.92 | 9% |
| 21 | 4 | Jordan Hicks | at LAD/COL | 95 | 3.79 | 1.36 | 11% |
| 22 | 4 | Carlos Rodón | TBR/at BOS | 107 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 17% |
| 23 | 4 | Tobias Myers | at CHC/MIA | 72 | 3.13 | 1.13 | 15% |
| 24 | 4 | David Peterson | at MIA/ATL | 43.2 | 3.09 | 1.42 | 7% |
| 25 | 4 | Zack Littell | at NYY/CIN | 101.1 | 4.26 | 1.37 | 17% |
| 26 | 4 | Spencer Arrighetti | at OAK/LAD | 80 | 5.63 | 1.60 | 13% |
| 27 | 5 | Randy Vásquez | at WSN/at BAL | 63 | 4.57 | 1.56 | 10% |
| 28 | 5 | Hogan Harris | HOU/at LAA | 47.2 | 3.40 | 1.45 | 6% |
| 29 | 5 | Yonny Chirinos | NYM/at MIL | 25 | 5.76 | 1.72 | 10% |
| 30 | 5 | DJ Herz | SDP/at STL | 31.1 | 5.17 | 1.40 | 23% |
| 31 | 5 | Javier Assad | MIL/at KCR | 85.1 | 3.27 | 1.35 | 12% |
| 32 | 6 | Xzavion Curry | DET/at PHI | 17.1 | 5.19 | 1.27 | 12% |
| 33 | 6 | Austin Gomber | BOS/at SFG | 99.2 | 4.61 | 1.30 | 10% |
| 34 | 6 | Carlos Carrasco | DET/at PHI | 86 | 5.02 | 1.36 | 11% |
| 35 | 6 | Osvaldo Bido | HOU/at LAA | 18.1 | 3.44 | 1.25 | 6% |
With the All-Star break on the horizon, feel free to use this comment section for any questions related to decisions going into the second half.
If you didn’t see my chat today, I just wanted y’all to know that there was no chart yesterday because we lost internet for about 9 hours with a statewide outage for Spectrum service. Thankfully we avoided any bad weather here in Austin so in the grand scheme an afternoon and evening without the internet isn’t the end of the world.
For Thursday, we have some tough spots where you have to decide if chasing the win potential is worth the risk.
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Full notes will be back tomorrow night.
Keider Montero showed some flashes in a couple of extended outings (1 start in game 2 of a doubleheader and the other an extended relief appearance from the 2nd-6th innings) at the end of May and June with an 18% K-BB. He still had 9 ER in 9.7 IP thanks in large part to 3 HRs. He jumped into Casey Mize’s spot on July 3rd and did his best work yet against MIN: 6.3 IP/2 ER/4 Ks/1 BB. Still not exactly overpowering, but something to build upon going into this week’s 2-step.
I didn’t express a ton of confidence in him, putting him in the YOLO category on the 2-start board, but I came away impressed by his 6.3 IP of scoreless work on Monday night. He got ahead with a 76% first pitch strike rate (63% lg. avg) and posted a 36% Called Strike + Whiff rate (27% lg. avg), both figures were season bests for Montero. It certainly wasn’t enough to give him a full green light against LAD, but he’s on the radar now as a streamer option.
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Not a lot to work with on Monday’s slate, but plenty of startable options on the 2-start board.
| RANK | TYPE | PITCHER | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | LAD/OAK | 111.2 | 2.74 | 0.99 | 19% |
| 2 | 1 | Chris Sale | at ARI/at SDP | 99.2 | 2.71 | 0.91 | 28% |
| 3 | 1 | Zac Gallen | ATL/TOR | 67.2 | 3.06 | 1.11 | 19% |
| 4 | 1 | Logan Gilbert | at SDP/at LAA | 117.2 | 2.91 | 0.92 | 19% |
| 5 | 2 | Ryan Pepiot | NYY/CLE | 75.2 | 4.40 | 1.12 | 18% |
| 6 | 2 | Ronel Blanco | MIA/TEX | 96 | 2.53 | 1.01 | 13% |
| 7 | 2 | Bobby Miller | at PHI/at DET | 25 | 6.12 | 1.60 | 9% |
| 8 | 2 | Jake Irvin | at NYM/at MIL | 106 | 2.80 | 1.00 | 17% |
| 9 | 3 | Mitch Keller | NYM/at CHW | 103.1 | 3.48 | 1.25 | 16% |
| 10 | 3 | Yusei Kikuchi | at SFG/at ARI | 94 | 4.12 | 1.31 | 19% |
| 11 | 3 | Carlos Rodón | at TBR/at BAL | 99 | 4.45 | 1.24 | 17% |
| 12 | 3 | Christian Scott | at PIT/COL | 33.1 | 4.32 | 1.14 | 14% |
| 13 | 3 | Mitchell Parker | STL/at MIL | 84.2 | 3.61 | 1.10 | 15% |
| 14 | 3 | Ben Lively | at DET/at TBR | 77.1 | 3.14 | 1.16 | 14% |
| 15 | 3 | Charlie Morton | at ARI/at SDP | 91 | 3.96 | 1.25 | 14% |
| 16 | 3 | Blake Snell | TOR/MIN | 23.2 | 9.51 | 1.94 | 14% |
| 17 | 4 | Gavin Williams | at DET/at TBR | 4 | 11.25 | 2.25 | 0% |
| 18 | 4 | Brayan Bello | OAK/KCR | 78 | 5.19 | 1.45 | 12% |
| 19 | 4 | Jon Gray | at LAA/at HOU | 80.1 | 3.92 | 1.33 | 14% |
| 20 | 4 | Andrew Abbott | COL/MIA | 96 | 3.28 | 1.20 | 10% |
| 21 | 4 | Joey Estes | at BOS/at PHI | 55.1 | 4.39 | 1.12 | 13% |
| 22 | 4 | Chris Paddack | at CHW/at SFG | 78.1 | 5.29 | 1.43 | 15% |
| 23 | 4 | Jameson Taillon | at BAL/at STL | 81.1 | 2.99 | 1.18 | 14% |
| 24 | 4 | Dean Kremer | CHC/NYY | 55 | 3.93 | 1.09 | 16% |
| 25 | 4 | Cal Quantrill | at CIN/at NYM | 100.1 | 3.77 | 1.33 | 9% |
| 26 | 4 | Colin Rea | PIT/WSN | 94.1 | 3.34 | 1.20 | 10% |
| 27 | 4 | Davis Daniel | TEX/SEA | 13.1 | 2.70 | 0.90 | 20% |
| 28 | 4 | Miles Mikolas | at WSN/CHC | 100.2 | 5.19 | 1.22 | 13% |
| 29 | 5 | Ryan Feltner | at CIN/at NYM | 91.2 | 5.60 | 1.46 | 13% |
| 30 | 5 | Yilber Diaz | ATL/TOR | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| 31 | 5 | Keider Montero | CLE/LAD | 15 | 6.60 | 1.40 | 15% |
| 32 | 5 | Frankie Montas | COL/MIA | 77.1 | 4.19 | 1.32 | 9% |
| 33 | 5 | Roansy Contreras | TEX/SEA | 35.2 | 4.04 | 1.46 | 9% |
| 34 | 5 | Andre Pallante | KCR/CHC | 45 | 4.00 | 1.44 | 9% |
| 35 | 6 | Trevor Rogers | at HOU/at CIN | 84.1 | 4.91 | 1.60 | 8% |
| 36 | 6 | Kenta Maeda | CLE/LAD | 63 | 6.71 | 1.52 | 9% |
| 37 | 6 | Chris Flexen | MIN/PIT | 85 | 5.08 | 1.39 | 8% |
| 38 | 6 | Quinn Priester | NYM/at CHW | 31.2 | 4.83 | 1.55 | 7% |
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Hope y’all had a nice 4th of July! I enjoyed a relaxing day with the fam and watching some baseball, but I couldn’t leave y’all hanging without a Friday board, just had to wait until morning of instead of night before.
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Sorry for no chat today. I wish I could say it was for the holiday or something, but it was a much dumber reason… which I guess was at least tangentially related to the 4th of July. I moved my regular Thursday OOTP show to today because of the 4th but then I got fully in the Thursday groove and didn’t think about botching the chat until late afternoon when it was too late to fire something up. I’ll be back next week with a chat and we can discuss my new SP rankings in more detail.
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The updated rankings are done! They will be live Monday. Sorry for the delay that led to no official June update. I’ll update again after the Trade Deadline.
We also have our shortest slate of the season so far with just 3 games, too, so I decided to put the 2-start chart here instead of splitting the posts. I usually split if the Monday chart is taking a while and I need to get to bed, but obviously a 6-man board doesn’t take much time. Start Gore & Brown, maaaaybe consider Peterson in some spots and stay away from the other 3! That said, I will still give you the chart with the info so you can make you own decisions. Maybe you’re hoping for a cheap win from Wilson in Coors since Milwaukee is so good. I have an unreasonable soft spot for him and even I’m not really giving him any consideration.
Speaking of the 2-start board, sorry for no podcast talking through the group with Justin on a Friday pod. He was a bit under the weather and I had the Fireside Chat podcast ready to share with y’all anyway so it was an easy fill-in instead of posting it on Saturday.
The top 10 are all ranked in the Top 55 of the upcoming rankings, but then just one other in the Top 75 so it’s kind of a studs and duds week. There are some streamable candidates including my boy Wesneski. I was big on him last year and unfortunately he blew up in our faces as the HRs were just too much (2.0 HR9). They aren’t gone (1.6), but I like the 15% K-BB rate. Philly is scary, the Angels are not.
Soriano is slated to return on Tuesday and would set up for a pair. Hopefully the abdomen infection is cleared up and he’s ready to pick up where he left off. He’s been one of the better waiver pickups this season.
| RANK | TYPE | PITCHER | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | at MIN/at CIN | 97 | 2.32 | 0.94 | 24% |
| 2 | 1 | George Kirby | BAL/TOR | 99.1 | 3.35 | 0.97 | 22% |
| 3 | 1 | Dylan Cease | at TEX/ARI | 98.1 | 3.84 | 1.06 | 24% |
| 4 | 1 | Luis Gil | CIN/BOS | 85.2 | 3.15 | 1.12 | 15% |
| 5 | 1 | MacKenzie Gore | NYM/STL | 85 | 3.60 | 1.39 | 19% |
| 6 | 2 | Reynaldo López | SFG/PHI | 79.1 | 1.70 | 1.11 | 17% |
| 7 | 2 | Kutter Crawford | at MIA/at NYY | 94 | 3.54 | 1.15 | 17% |
| 8 | 2 | Mitch Keller | STL/NYM | 98.1 | 3.20 | 1.22 | 15% |
| 9 | 2 | Hunter Brown | at TOR/at MIN | 80.1 | 4.37 | 1.37 | 17% |
| 10 | 2 | Nathan Eovaldi | SDP/TBR | 73 | 3.45 | 1.16 | 16% |
| 11 | 3 | Zack Littell | at KCR/at TEX | 86.1 | 4.17 | 1.36 | 18% |
| 12 | 3 | Simeon Woods Richardson | DET/HOU | 66 | 3.41 | 1.14 | 14% |
| 13 | 4 | Brady Singer | TBR/at COL | 89.1 | 3.12 | 1.18 | 16% |
| 14 | 4 | Kyle Gibson | at PIT/at WSN | 87.2 | 3.70 | 1.24 | 11% |
| 15 | 4 | Hayden Wesneski | PHI/LAA | 45 | 3.60 | 1.16 | 15% |
| 16 | 4 | José Soriano | at OAK/at CHC | 72.1 | 3.48 | 1.18 | 11% |
| 17 | 4 | Mitch Spence | LAA/BAL | 68.1 | 4.35 | 1.24 | 14% |
| 18 | 4 | Sean Manaea | at WSN/at PIT | 76.1 | 3.89 | 1.30 | 13% |
| 19 | 4 | Spencer Arrighetti | at TOR/at MIN | 65 | 5.68 | 1.60 | 13% |
| 20 | 4 | David Peterson | at WSN/at PIT | 27 | 3.67 | 1.48 | 6% |
| 21 | 5 | Michael Mercado | at CHC/at ATL | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33% |
| 22 | 5 | Hayden Birdsong | at ATL/at CLE | 4.2 | 5.79 | 1.93 | 9% |
| 23 | 5 | Chris Flexen | at CLE/at MIA | 79 | 5.13 | 1.41 | 8% |
| 24 | 5 | Valente Bellozo | BOS/CHW | 5 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 11% |
| 25 | 5 | Graham Ashcraft | at NYY/DET | 67.2 | 5.45 | 1.49 | 10% |
| 26 | 6 | Austin Gomber | MIL/KCR | 81.2 | 4.63 | 1.31 | 9% |
| 27 | 6 | Bryse Wilson | at COL/at LAD | 74 | 3.89 | 1.23 | 11% |
| 28 | 6 | Ryne Nelson | at LAD/at SDP | 68 | 5.69 | 1.57 | 9% |
| 29 | 6 | Ryan Feltner | MIL/KCR | 86.2 | 5.82 | 1.45 | 14% |
| 30 | 6 | Carlos Carrasco | CHW/SFG | 70 | 5.27 | 1.40 | 10% |
| 31 | 6 | Yariel Rodríguez | HOU/at SEA | 17.2 | 5.60 | 1.87 | 6% |
| 900 | 6 | Dallas Keuchel | at COL/at LAD | 4 | 11.25 | 2.25 | 14% |
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