I had some extra time this Sunday evening so I got the 2-start board done early!

Kikuchi has 24 Ks in 3 strong starts w/HOU (2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 16.7 IP) and this’ll be a huge test for talented lefty, but I’m running him everywhere.

Lack of offensive support for Woo is why he’s just 2-0 in his L5 despite a blistering 1.48 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 30.3 IP; even if I’m Ws chasing, I’d still start him.

Bradley suffering a fatigue-induced wear down or just 3 off-kilter starts (9.64 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 13% K-BB in 14 IP)? Can’t say for sure, but I’m gonna run the 2-start and then reassess.

While Houck only allowed 3 ER in his last 2 starts v. HOU and TEX, he still had just 4 Ks and 5 BB in the 12.7 IP of work. With the previous 3 duds, he’s at 4.85 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 1% K-BB in 29.7 IP over his L5. I realize he’s been excellent on the whole this year, but this is a brutal slate at HOU and v. ARI so I think there are some sits to be found out there. The sweeper ain’t sweepin’! Meanwhile the sinker and splitter have come in and out, too, leaving him nothing to rely on right now. He does setup

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I want to make sure it’s known that Arrighetti isn’t just up there because he’s facing the White Sox, he has been absolutely cooking lately: 3.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 26% K-BB in his L6 (36 IP) including 25 Ks in his last two starts. He has still allowed 5 HRs during this run (1.3 HR9) so the longball lingers as a potential problem, but as long as they are solos (4 of the 5 have been) he can survive.

I’m still loving what Schwelly is doing, too. He went into Coors and dropped a 6 IP/2 ER/7 K gem that deserved a win before Luke Jackson and Joe Jiménez decided to allow 7 runs in the 8th inning. Schwellenbach’s been even better than Arrighetti of late with a 2.54 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 28% K-BB in his L6 (39 IP). I’ll take either Spencer right now, though. They are both in the rotation regardless of matchup right now in virtually every format.

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Be veryyy careful with that 1-x group, 3 of ’em are facing really tough matchups and Maeda… well, look at his numbers. There’s some sketchiness in the 2-x group, too. I just want to avoid the 7+ ER meltdowns this late in the season and of course it’s impossible to predict them, but they are so punishing at this juncture. That said, we also can’t play scared (unless you’re protecting big ratio leads and just trying to successfully land a huge lead, but that’s rare), so trust your picks and don’t overthink the duds too much.
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OK, this will probably be the last full ranking of the regular season because once we flip the calendar to September, it’s allll about what can you do for me right now. By then we can’t worry about tomorrow, everything is immediate focus only and playing hard to our standings.

I decided to rank ReyLo before he returns from injury because he’s making a rehab start tonight and expected back very soon, but if he doesn’t return, I still have Holmes ranked, too.

(Note: There won’t be a Wednesday SP Chart, but these rankings should definitely help your decisions for the day and I have my chat at 1 pm Central where you can ask any questions about the rankings!)

The $ is the earned auction value so far this year. Those with – in their Change column means they weren’t ranked last month due to injury or simply not being in the MLB rotation. ADP is the spring average draft position.

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Working on the new rankings, they’ll be out later today! Sorry for the late board, but here it is:
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New rankings out next week!
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Holy crap, what a brutal board. There are some intriguing arms outside of the 3 x-ers but they almost all have a rough matchup.  I know the opponents Ortiz and Morton are facing haven’t been strong of late, but they still scare me enough to be leery with either of them. I was impressed that Ortiz stemmed the tide after a 5 ER first inning to still go 5.3 IP with 6 ER. Still a bad outing, but those extra innings are so key in blowups. Outside of Ortiz, that group of 1 x-ers are straight up WHIP killers and you have to start being very mindful of your ratios as we enter the home stretch.

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I have my chat at 2pm ET on Wednesday if you have any questions. Pretty deep board today and as such, I’m probably staying away from the 1-x’s in most cases, but I realize options are tight in many leagues and all three have had runs of success this year.

Wednesday morning updates:

One of the downsides of posting is early is missing changes or in this case, some updated doubleheader information.

• Cortes is moved to Wednesday while Luis Gil & Will Warren will start the DH v. LAA. Gil is an automatic and I miiiight give Warren a shot in deeper leagues if I’m chasing Wins.
• Ben Lively and Eduardo Rodriguez were also rained out so they’ll be on the Wednesday slate joining Pfaadt & Carrasco. Lively was a 2-x reco while I want to wait and see on E-Rod.

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I completely forgot the 2-start chart this morning. I’m sorry about that! As for the remaining 2-steppers who are going today, their ranking on the board is indicative of how I feel for the whole week.

David Festa with a third straight solid start since returning. He should be rostered everywhere right now.

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