Once you display a skill, you own it? That’s what the Braves and their fans are hoping applies to Nate McLouth this season. To say that last year was a disaster may actually be an understatement. A ghastly .283 wOBA from a hitter who was rather consistent over his three previous seasons was quite an unpleasant surprise. McLouth’s strikeout rate increased to the worst mark of his career, his isolated slugging percentage dove for the second straight year to a career low of .132 and his BABIP plunged to just .221.

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Despite all the mainstream praise of his defense, Torii Hunter finally shifted to a corner outfield spot last season, and did so in deference to a rookie. Peter Bourjos, a former tenth round pick, usurped Hunter in center, playing the position on an everyday basis after coming up in early-August. Our own Marc Hulet ranked Bourjos as the Angels’ fourth best prospect before the 2010 season while Baseball America had him second. Both parties agreed that he had the speed to steal a hefty number of bases on an annual basis, and that his power is more towards the gaps than over-the-fence (.159 ISO in the minors). The part about his excellent centerfield defense isn’t relevant to our interests, since we’re going to look at his 2011 fantasy value.

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Now is the time of year to worry about who you plan on keeping next season. Since most league’s trading deadline has passed, you’re going to need to head over to the waiver wire to find available young pieces. Here are three guys who you should consider picking up and keeping in deeper or league-specific leagues.

Roger Bernadina | OF | Nationals
The Nationals called up Bernadina when their other right field options (notably Justin Maxwell) failed early on. In a little over 350 trips to the plate this year, he’s posted a triple slash of .271/.327/.433 with a .338 wOBA. It’s not a surprise that he’s stolen 13 bases, but his double digit home runs are a shock, seeing that he never hit for power in any of his minor league stints. Bernadina turned 26 in July, so the power may finally be developing. He’s never going to be a superstar, but a 15/25 season is a reasonable expectation if he gets steady playing time next year.

Gregor Blanco | OF | Royals
Blanco came over to Kansas City thanks to the Ankiel/Farnsworth deal, and has gotten steady playing time ever since. The lefty rarely hits fly balls, which allows him to maintain a high BABIP without a super LD%. He knows how to draw a walk, but a lack of power makes him only a league average hitter. He’s stolen 10 bases in under 200 plate appearances, and has only been caught once as a Royal. If Ned Yost gives him the same amount of playing time for a full season, Blanco could steal 25 bases without hurting your batting average, with the distinct possibility of swiping more than 30 bags.

John Lannan | SP | Nationals
While his overall numbers aren’t fantastic, Lannan has put up impressive numbers since being recalled in August. Lannan regained his control, while finding a way to raise his Whiff%, too. He’s maintained an impressive ground ball percentage through all of this, and I’m loving what he’s done in August. Be a bit more cautious with Lannan, but I think he’s figured something out on the mound, and could be a solid contributor next year.

Allen Craig, Cardinals (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

St. Louis’ eighth-round pick in the 2006 draft, Craig is a 6-2, 210 pound power hitter with dubious defensive skills. The 26-year-old was recently recalled by the Cards, and he’s expected to spot for Jon Jay against lefties in right field. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch Tweets that Craig will also get some starts at third base, now that David Freese is set for season-ending surgery on his right ankle.

Craig posted a .304/.371/.506 line in 593 plate appearances at the Double-A level, with an 8.3% walk rate, a 17.5 K% and a .202 ISO. The California Golden Bear’s bat has been more ferocious in Triple-A — a .322/.380/.551 triple-slash in 842 PA. Craig has an 8.1 BB%, a 19.9 K% and a .229 ISO in the Pacific Coast League. He’s not an especially patient hitter, though he can certainly put a charge into the ball.

What should be expected of Craig at the big league level? Minor League Splits shows that his hitting at Memphis in 2009 translates to a .278/.319/.440 line in the majors, and his 2010 performances equates to .277/.330/.452. CHONE has a similar projection (.276/.333/.448). While he won’t work a lot of walks and he’ll try Tony La Russa’s patience with his glove work, Craig looks like a cheap source of pop in NL-only leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Braves (5%)

Atlanta picked up Ankiel from the Royals at the trade deadline (along with Kyle Farnsworth) for LHP Tim Collins, OF Gregor Blanco and RHP Jesse Chavez. The 31-year-old will take over center field for the club while Nate McLouth tries to erase all memories of the past four months, Men in Black style.

Not that Ankiel is having himself a banner season, either. He missed over two-and-a-half months with a right quadriceps strain, just the latest in a litany of ailments that includes a torn left patellar tendon in ’06, a sore knee, shoulder and a sports hernia in ’08 and Achilles tendinitis, a groin strain and a shoulder injury suffered after colliding with the outfield fence in ’09. Ankiel’s got a .262/.319/.456 line in 113 PA so far, with a spike in ground ball rate (50.7%), K rate (32.7%) and pop ups (22.7 IF/FB%) masked by a .343 BABIP. Given the teeny sample, I wouldn’t put much emphasis on those totals.

ZiPS pegs Ankiel as a .254/.310/.458 hitter for the rest of 2010, while CHONE throws out a less sunny .247/.302/.445. There’s little certainty with the Braves’ new lefty slugger. He’s worth a gamble in NL-only formats, but Ankiel’s potential payoff isn’t worth the headaches for mixed leaguers.

Enjoy the long weekend even more by picking these two under-the-radar players…

Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers (owned in six percent of Yahoo leagues)

The 27-year-old entered the season as a huge question mark, all but forgotten after missing most of the 2008 and 2009 campaigns following surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. But happily, Bonderman has made a strong return showing in 2010. In 47.2 innings pitched, he has 8.12 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.97 xFIP.

He’s not the same power pitcher of years past — Bonderman is averaging 89.2 MPH with his fastball, down three to four ticks from his peak velocity. His slider, once a mid-80’s breaker, now averages 82.1 MPH. Bonderman has a 37.5 GB% in 2010, compared to a career 46.4 GB%.

Despite the velocity decline, he has nonetheless baited batters into chasing his stuff off the plate 33.7 percent of the time (27.7% MLB average in 2010), while also getting swinging strikes 9.4 percent (8-8.5% MLB average). Bonderman’s slider is giving hitters fits — they’re swinging at the pitch 54.7% (47.7% MLB average), coming up empty 23 percent of the time (13.6% MLB average).

It’s hard to say if he’ll remain healthy, but Bonderman is well worth picking up in AL-only leagues and has enough talent left to be of use in most mixed leagues, too.

Corey Hart, Brewers (40%)

Hart hammered pitchers in 2007, batting .295/.353/.539 with a .380 wOBA. He also nabbed 23 bases in addition to hitting 24 homers. Though the 6-6 righty batter again went 20/20 in 2008 (20 HR, 23 SB), Hart’s triple-slash dipped to .268/.300/.459, with a .327 wOBA. His Isolated Power, .244 in ’07, declined to .191. Most disappointing, Hart hacked at 31.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone in 2008, after chasing 25.7 percent the previous year (the MLB average was around 25% both seasons). As a result, his walk rate dipped from an already-low 6.4% in 2007 to 4.1% in 2008.

Last year, Hart improved ever so slightly — he posted a .260/.335/.418 triple slash (.331 wOBA). He traded some power for walks, with his ISO falling to .158 but his rate of free passes taken climbing to 9.1%. Hart didn’t run much (11 SB), but stopped chasing so many junk pitches, with a 23.5 O-Swing%. In 2010, Hart has kept the walks and started mashing to boot.

The 28-year-old right fielder has a .261/.329/.542 line in 158 plate appearances, good for a .371 wOBA. He’s walking in 9.5 percent of his PA and venturing out of the strike zone just 20.9%, while also popping 10 HR and putting up a .282 ISO. About the only disappointing aspect for fantasy folks is Hart’s three SB on the season.

Before you go batty over Hart’s Herculean power numbers, keep in mind that it takes about 550 PA for a change in Isolated Power to become reliable. Hart’s got pop — his career ISO is .203, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .209 ISO — but he’ll probably post an ISO closer to .200 than .300 going forward. ZiPS thinks Hart will post a .349 wOBA (.263/.326/.471) for the rest of 2010.

In terms of pitching attributes, there’s no better blend for starters than high strikeout totals, few walks and ample ground balls. The hurlers who can miss bats, limit free passes and burn worms reign supreme.

Oakland’s Brett Anderson fits the profile. One of the shiny baubles picked up in the December 2007 Dan Haren deal, Anderson ripped through the minor leagues (9.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 56.5 GB%) and made the A’s out of spring training last season. As a 21 year-old with scarce experience above A-ball, Anderson was arguably one of the top 15 starters in baseball.

In 175.1 innings, Anderson struck out 7.7 batters per nine innings, while walking just 2.31 hitters per nine. He remained a strong groundball pitcher in the show, with a 50.9 GB%. The lefty’s 3.61 xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, placed 14th among starters.

In terms of stuff, Anderson went from good to great during the course of the season. Take a look at his velocity chart for 2009:

In April, Anderson sat 91 MPH with his fastball, with an 82.7 MPH slider. By the summer, he was averaging 93-94 MPH with a mid-80’s slider. Overall, Anderson’s heater wasn’t a great pitch in 2009 (-0.56 runs per 100 pitches), nor was his changeup (-0.47). However, he featured some of the best breaking stuff in the majors.

Anderson’s slider (tossed nearly a third of the time) was worth +2.51 runs per 100 pitches. In terms of overall runs (wSL), Anderson’s +22.2 topped all big league starters. His high-70’s curveball also rated well, though the sample is small considering that he threw the pitch less than seven percent (+0.25 runs/100).

Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool has different pitch classifications (his site classifies most of Anderson’s breaking pitches as curveballs). Whatever you want to call his pitches, Anderson showed exceptional control when he spun a breaking ball. He threw both the slider and curve for a strike 65.1 percent of the time (62.7 percent MLB average for the slider and 58 percent average for the curve).

For 2010, CHONE (3.92 FIP) and ZiPS (3.78 FIP) both project FIPs in the high three’s. The FANS are even giddier, envisioning a 3.48 FIP.

As that fan forecast attests, people are privy to Anderson’s talents. But he still might be a relative value entering the season. According to MockDraftCentral, the 22 year-old is, on average, going 35th among starting pitchers. That’s after regression candidate Jair Jurrjens and health question mark Brandon Webb.

The only thing standing in between Anderson and acedom is health. The A’s were pretty cautious with him in ’09, limiting Anderson to 94 pitches per start, but his innings total did increase by about 70 from 2008 to 2009 (it’s closer to 40 if you count his pitching for Team USA and a pair of Triple-A playoff starts in ’08). Given Anderson’s talent and modest ADP, he could be the rare top prospect who’s actually a bargain on draft day.

While going through looking at DL information, I have seen some pretty decent players available. Here is a list of hitters that are less than 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% owned in Yahoo leagues.

<50% Owned: Chris Davis (47% owned) – I know Chris disappointed last season, mainly with his 0.238 batting average. His 21 home runs in 391 ABs was not horrible. Looking at his 2010 projections, they have him hitting anywhere from 0.251 to 0.285 with 21 to 30 home runs. There is a chance that he will produce in 2010 as did in 2009, but there is also a chance that he will hit 0.285 like in 2008. He is definitely worth adding to the bench and being qualified at 1B and 3B is also attractive.

< 40% Owned: David DeJesus (37% owned) – The main problem with David is he can't do any one thing good enough to get noticed. He is the epitome of the average player. Sometimes that is all you need on a team. He will hit for OK average while subbing in for players on the DL or days off. He is a nice pick up for teams ahead that can't take a chance on a player that may drag them down.

< 30% Owned: Nick Johnson (23% owned) –Nick’s real value is in his ability to take a base. In leagues with OBP as a stat, he is nice pick up. If you can handle the low batting average, he is a nice pickup in AL only or deeper leagues.

<20% Owned: Chris Iannetta (15% owned) – Chris was really supposed to break out in 2009, but disappointed. His main draw back, for a catcher, was his 0.228 batting average. I really wouldn't want to be starting him everyday, but he will make a great fill in for the days your main catcher has off.

<10% Owned: Conor Jackson (11% owned) – I have to break my rules here, but Connor was the inspiration for this article. I was looking for 1st base replacements and I saw he was at 9% owned (since has jump a bit) and I could not believe it. Last season he had Valley Fever (a 6 to 9 month cold). His skills should be near his previous levels of 0.300 BA, 10-15 Hrs, 10SB (5 in 30 games last year). With his 1B and OF eligibility, he will make a great bench sub or a starter in a deeper league.

After missing the entire 2009 season due to surgery on a torn labrum, Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis is back pitching and is in the running for the fifth starter’s job. Saturday’s outing was rough (4 IP, 6 R, 6 H) but should not detract from the fact that if he does make the rotation, Francis is an excellent $1 pitcher in NL-only leagues.

Before the injury, Francis was on his way to becoming one of the top young pitchers in the game. Over the 2006-07 seasons, he had 30 W, a 4.19 ERA and a 1.335 WHIP in his age 25 and 26 seasons. While he did not rack up strikeouts (282 in 414.1 IP), his K/9 went from 5.3 in 2006 to 6.9 in 2007 and he had a 2.62 K/BB ratio in the latter year.

Francis did this without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged in the mid-80s over these two seasons and was actually a negative pitch in 2007. But he succeeded thanks to an extremely effective changeup. At 11.9 runs above average, Francis’ change was the seventh-best one in MLB in 2007. He also mixed in a curve ball, which was an average offering.

In 2008, Francis struggled right off the bat. He finally went on the disabled list at the end of June with shoulder inflammation and missed five weeks. After getting roughed up again in his first outing after being activated, Francis reeled off six strong starts (2.82 ERA, 24 Ks, 9 BB, 38.1 IP) before being shut down for good after September 12th. In February of 2009, he underwent arthroscopic surgery and missed the regular season.

Flash forward to 2010 and Francis has made four starts in the Cactus League. He is still a work in progress and the velocity on his fastball has not been consistent. Overall Francis has 13 IP, 16 H, 10 ER, 5 BB and 9 Ks. Francis needs the separation between his fastball and changeup to be significant in order for the latter pitch to succeed. He still has two more starts left this Spring to iron things out. However, as the team’s fifth starter, Francis would not pitch the early part of April and could have additional time in Arizona to refine his stuff.

In the end game, you want to take pitchers with both upside and a good shot at a starting spot. We know that Francis has significant upside, based upon what he has already done in the majors. And he should be the team’s fifth starter if he is healthy. Francis is battling journeymen Tim Redding and Gregory Smith for the final rotation slot and should be an easy choice if his shoulder is sound.

So, if you have time before your auction or draft, monitor Francis’ final two outings. Better results than his last performance would be nice, but the real key is that he logs innings and does not suffer any setbacks. If both of those things are true, Francis should be a prime target to fill out the back of your staff.

The Florida Marlins figure to have a fantastic one-two punch at the top of the rotation this season, with Josh Johnson (inked to a four-year, $39 million deal during the off-season) followed by Ricky Nolasco, whose 2009 xFIP was 1.8 runs lower than his ERA. Anibal Sanchez, assuming his shoulder doesn’t start shooting flames, looks to be the third man. After that, things get a little..fishy (sorry).

Chris Volstad, Rick VandenHurk, Andrew Miller, Clay Hensley and Hayden Penn are all looking to earn a spot at the back of Florida’s rotation.

Volstad, 23, was the 16th overall pick in the 2005 draft. The 6-8 right-hander didn’t post huge whiff totals in the minors (6.3 K/9), but his low-90’s fastball, high-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup generated grounders at a 57.4 percent clip and he displayed plus control with just 2.4 BB/9.

Over the last two years in the big leagues, Volstad has posted rates of 5.88 K/9 and 3.51 BB/9, with a 4.43 xFIP. Volstad remains a groundball-oriented hurler, with a 50.9 GB% in the majors. His hook (+0.86 runs per 100 pitches for the curve) and changeup (+0.73) have been effective, but that fastball has been smacked for a -0.55 runs/100 value.

Volstad’s upside doesn’t appear enormous, but he’s a good bet to bounce back in 2010. His ERA was 5.21 in 2009, compared to a 4.35 xFIP. The reason? Nearly 18 percent of fly balls hit against Volstad left the yard last year, by far the highest rate among starters with 150+ innings pitched. If that number regresses back to the 10-12 percent range, then Volstad’s ERA should dip to mid-fours.

A 24 year-old Dutchman, VandenHurk has been Marlins property since 2002. The 6-5 righty features low-90’s Gouda and a hard slider, which has helped him punch out a batter per inning on the farm, with 3.8 BB/9.

Sadly, VandenHurk is often hurt. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005. More recently, he was shelved in both ’08 and ’09 with elbow ailments. VandenHurk has never come close to a full starter’s workload: his 121.2 IP last season between Florida and the minors was a career high.

In 2009, he had 7.69 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 and a 3.05 FIP in 59.2 innings at the Triple-A level, and 7.52 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 and a 4.78 xFIP in the majors. VandenHurk will miss bats, but health, control issues and extreme fly ball tendencies (27.6 GB% in the majors) make him unreliable. CHONE predicts a 4.66 FIP next year, with 8.54 K/9, 4 BB/9 and 1.38 dingers per nine innings.

R.J. Anderson covered Miller’s journey from highly-touted Tar Heel and Tiger to aggravating underachiever. The lefty is still just 24, and his career xFIP in the majors (4.70) is considerably lower than his ERA (5.50). Even so, scouts expected much more than mediocrity from the 6th pick in the 2006 draft.

First, the good: Miller has 7.22 K/9 in the major leagues, and he keeps the ball on the ground, too (48.1 GB%). The bad is, well, everything else.

Miller has generously handed out 5.09 walks per nine innings, tossing a first pitch strike just 52.1 percent of the time (58 percent MLB average). Batters aren’t chasing his low-90’s fastball, slurvy upper-70’s breaking ball or low-80’s changeup out of the zone (20.6 outside swing%, compared to the 25% MLB average).

When the 6-7 southpaw isn’t getting behind in the count, he’s hurt: he hit the DL in 2008 with a right knee injury and missed time last year with oblique and right ankle problems (injury info from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

As R.J. suggested, Miller might be best served by going to Triple-A and working out the kinks. He logged just 131 innings in the minors. CHONE still sees Miller through powder blue-colored glasses though, forecasting a 4.30 FIP, 7.62 K/9 and 4.79 BB/9 in 2010.

Hensley, 30, posted a 2.1 WAR season with the Padres back in 2006. The next few years wouldn’t be nearly as kind. Hampered by a shoulder injury (requiring labrum surgery after the ’07 campaign), Hensley was smacked around in the majors and became known as “the dude who gave up Barry Bonds’s 755th home run.”

The former Giants prospect briefly passed through Houston’s minor league system last year and then latched on with Florida. In 114 innings with the Zephyrs, Hensley had a 3.73 FIP, 6.47 K/9 and 3 BB/9.

Hensley’s something of a slop-ball pitcher, featuring a fastball that might crack 90 on a good day, a low-80’s slider, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. He’s not a great source of strikeouts, and he doesn’t have the sort of control that one usually associates with a finesse type. However, he does keep the ball on the ground. CHONE calls for a 4.79 FIP next year, with 6.3 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.

Like his fellow competitors, Penn is no stranger to strains surgical scars. The former Orioles prospect has a promising minor league dossier. But you name it, and Penn has hurt it: surgery to remove his appendix in 2006, elbow surgery in 2007 and shoulder soreness in 2008. The 25 year-old righty is projected to post a 5.04 FIP next year, with 7.53 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9.

Volstad, VandenHurk and Miller remain mildly interesting fantasy options, though none should be on draft boards in mixed leagues.

Brad Bergesen’s player profile here at FanGraphs has been playing mind games with me for a few days. Simply put, it’s tough to get a good handle on what to expect from this guy. I really do enjoy writing with conviction and drawing strong conclusions based on the data that is available here and at many other great baseball sites online. I believe in what I write and for many reasons.

But Bergesen is different. Rather than picking a side and determining if he can be successful or unsuccessful because of reasons X, Y, and Z there are good reasons on both sides of the ledger when it comes to Brad Bergesen. The former fourth round pick is coming off of a nice rookie year where he posted a 3.43 ERA in 19 starts before succumbing to a leg injury after taking a line drive off his shin on July 30. His peripherals tell another story…he had a 4.10 FIP and 4.42 xFIP.

xFIP is likely selling him short because his home run rate is being normalized. I personally don’t think that’s fair because Bergesen’s a sinker ball pitcher and has always prevented the long ball at each level of professional baseball save for a 17 inning High-A stint in 2008.

Bergesen is not a strikeout pitcher by any means but his minor league numbers may suggest that we could see a small uptick in strikeouts next season from his meager 4.74 strikeout rate. He’s always had plus-control and showed that skill last year in the big leagues. And then there’s his impressive 50% ground ball rate in 2009 which agrees with his minor league rates. Steady defenders Cesar Izturis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones up the middle of the diamond figure to assist Bergesen and his ground ball tendencies. His BABIP and left-on-base rates also check out quite normally.

There’s reason to believe that Bergesen could be a serviceable contributor towards the back end of your fantasy team’s rotation due to his plus-control, sinking fastball, home run suppression, and strong defense surrounding him. He has the makings to become a better version of beltway foe and Washington National, John Lannan. That’s all the good stuff.

When we shift to the other side of the ledger we see Bergesen’s very low and alarming strikeout rate in the big leagues accompanied with his fringey fastball velocity. And one has to wonder whether he can maintain a home run rate around 0.80. Even if that rate creeps up closer to the league average of 1.05 his numbers are going to suffer (as xFIP shows).

His plate discipline stats here show that he wasn’t fooling many major league hitters last year. Batters made contact with his pitches at a very above-average clip last season.

It’s going to be awfully interesting to see what Bergesen does this season and pitching in the AL East against superior opponents will not make his job any easier. As I’ve combed through above…he has his own set of pros and cons. After recovering from the freak leg injury he suffered a strange and funny injury over the winter but looks to be on schedule and should be a part of the Orioles rotation come opening day.

Perhaps we’ll be able to say a lot more about Bergesen next winter if he completes his first full season in the majors this year. This could all have boiled down to simply needing more data but for fantasy purposes we should be focusing most on what he can bring to the table this season. If Bergesen takes a few chinks in the armor this season (HR/9 or worse batted ball stats) then he will likely become a negligible pitcher in fantasy baseball.

But if he maintains a similar profile to last year then he’s certainly a serviceable pitcher (and much more valuable in real-life) at the back of your rotation and even more valuable in deeper leagues. I think the ball could fall on either side and it’ll be interesting to check back on The Bergesen Case next year. Nonetheless Bergesen is quite a fascinating pitcher and he’s likely to be found loitering on the waiver wire.