“Hello, boys! I’m baaack!”
–Russell Casse from Independence Day

Much like the so-crazy-he-has-to-be-right Casse from the 1996 summer blockbuster Independence Day and his never-ending efforts to prove non-believers wrong about his alien abduction, I am bringing back the Mining the Minors column to continue my quest to keep fantasy owners aware of lesser-known minor leaguers who are nearing the majors — and (crazy, I know) just might make an impact on fantasy teams in deeper and/or keeper leagues.

Or put another way: Just because many of these non-big leaguers are currently unowned in the vast majority of fantasy leagues doesn’t mean they should be, ahem, alien to you, dear fantasy owner.

For those of you new to this space, of if you just need a refresher on the method behind this column, I invite you to read the inaugural Mining the Minors from last season.

In the interest of staying current, I’ve taken the liberty of updating the above link with examples from last season of the various types of minor leaguers I’ll be checking in on this year.

1) Lesser-known prospects making names for themselves
2011 Impact Examples: Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve, Ryan Lavarnway, Juan Nicasio, Brad Peacock, Addison Reed

2) Solid but non-elite prospects
2011 Impact Examples: Jemile Weeks, Eric Thames, Henderson Alvarez, Lance Lynn, Josh Collmenter, Javy Guerra

3) Former top prospects whose careers had stalled or fallen off
2011 Impact Examples: Danny Duffy, Todd Frazier, Fautino De Los Santos, Alex White, Zach Stewart and Nick Hagadone

4) Triple-A veteran types
2011 Impact Examples: Ryan Vogelsong, Nolan Reimold, Brett Pill, Jose Constanza, Tom Wilhelmsen, Michael Fiers

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Fastball velocity is one of the most important numbers to focus on in a pitcher’s statistical toolbox. It has a high correlation with strikeout rate and when we saw an increase in velocity, good things should follow. Early on, we have heard about many starting pitchers suffering from a loss in fastball velocity, but some are actually enjoying a spike. I decided to only compare a starter’s velocity using the “Last 7 Days” filter so as to hopefully capture just the pitcher’s last start (or maybe two in some cases), since velocity does tend to increase throughout the season. These are the 10 pitchers with the largest increases so far:

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Sometimes us stats guys get accused of relying solely on esoteric metrics and watching nary a baseball game. Obviously, I cannot speak for everyone, but I would bet this is far from the truth. Though I am clearly not a professional scout, there are still easy things I can see on TV from a pitcher that can help us project his performance going forward. One of these is the pitcher’s velocity. We have learned that an increase of about 0.5 miles per hour in a pitcher’s fastball results in a similar gain of 0.5 in strikeout rate. Yesterday, I watched a lot of Jake Arrieta’s start, and as I type this, I am watching Ubaldo Jimenez pitch.

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On Monday, I published the findings of a study that determined spring K% and BB% were actually meaningful for pitchers. On Wednesday, I looked at pitchers whose spring K% were well above what the Steamer projections were expected, while I looked at the other side on Thursday, those pitchers whose spring K% is well below Steamer’s projected season mark. Today I am looking at BB% and will start with the pitchers who have displayed much better control than anticipated.

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Short but simple piece right here. I just finished drafting my 12th league, so with an “n” of 12, let’s see who I like. The simplest way to do this is to list the players I own most. So, here we go.

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For those that love to follow industry leagues, the Tout Wars drafts took place this past weekend in New York City.  In addition to their usual rundown, this year introduced a brand new Mixed League and as I was looking over some of the rosters, Josh Donaldson’s name stuck out to me.  He went for $4 to Rotowire’s Derek Van Riper who went with a “stars and scrubs” approach, but considering some of the other names that went for a buck, along with RotoGraphs’ reader Jeff’s question in the Catcher Tiers piece, it seems that Donaldson is on quite a few people’s fantasy radar these days.  Now the question remains, is he worth a look?

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Don’t pay attention to spring stats. That’s one of the mottos we live by at RotoGraphs. And while spring stats can be terribly misleading, there are some instances where knowing the stats could give you a leg up in your drafts. Having great counting stats during the spring may not equal success — just ask Jake Fox — but some stats can give you an idea about how much playing time a player will receive, or how a player is recovering from an injury. Here are three spring performances that may deserve a closer look.

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The season is bearing down on us, so it’s time for a roundup of where some hitting prospects stand in their attempts to make Opening Day rosters across baseball.

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Delmon Young has a had an up and down career with more downs than ups, but I think he can provide more value to a roto team this year than most initially assume. He is coming off a year in which he played in 124 games and netted just an 88 wRC+, but I still believe he can produce in a potent Tiger lineup.

Delmon is just one year removed from a .298/.333/.493 line in which he hit 21 homers and drove in 112 RBI. That was a stellar fantasy year, as he produced well in many standard categories. While he will always have a very poor walk rate, his bat control is decent and he should not kill your team’s average. In fact, there’s a good chance he improves it, as his career .288 average is rather respectable.

His season last year was poor, but he is in a better situation in Detroit. In his 40 games in Detroit last season, he hit 8 home runs and batted .274. This was a small sample, but it shows that his power really came on late in the season. According to StatCorner, Detroit’s home ballpark has a 108 home run factor for right-handed hitters compared to 95 for Minnesota’s. Comerica Park is pitcher friendly, but right-handers are able to push the ball out of the stadium at an above average rate, which should help Young’s home run total.

Also greatly helping Young this year will be his placement in the lineup. Batting directly behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder should give Young a great opportunity to hit with men on base and drive in runs. For reference, the league average line with men on base last year was .261/.332/.403 compared to .255/.321/.399. There is not a huge uptick in numbers with men on base, but there is a good opportunity for Young to be in that position more frequently than most hitters since two hitters who are expected to produce OBPs near or above .400 hit in front of him.

ZiPS projects a .283 average, 18 homers, and 86 RBI for Young, which is serviceable for a fantasy lineup. Delmon is one of the rare breeds whose fantasy value likely trumps their actual on field value. Delmon has only appeared in 20 games at DH in his career, so his .316/.345/.494 line as a DH does not guarantee success in that position. The 10% discount in production given to pinch hitters is assumed by designated hitters as well, so there is reason to be cautionary in regards to Young’s move to primary DH. It is worthwhile to keep track of how the Tigers use their DH position though, as Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder may end up with more plate appearances at DH than Young as the season advances.

In short, there are plenty of reasons to dislike Young but there are also reasons to expect him to produce well. He is the type of hitter I take a flier on in the later rounds, as he can produce well in four categories for a cheap price. He may bust, but he is in a good situation, in a stadium that should help his home run total, and is still just 26 years old. Your team won’t be devastated if you pass up on Delmon, but you could be missing out on good fantasy value at a very cheap price.

Currently, Erick Aybar is being touted as the lead off hitter for the Angels. Even though he has held this position in the batting order before, it is even more important with Albert Pujols on the team. If he is able to get on base at any decent clip, he will be an excellent source of Runs.

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