Potential BB% Improvers
On Monday, I published the findings of a study that determined spring K% and BB% were actually meaningful for pitchers. On Wednesday, I looked at pitchers whose spring K% were well above what the Steamer projections were expected, while I looked at the other side on Thursday, those pitchers whose spring K% is well below Steamer’s projected season mark. Today I am looking at BB% and will start with the pitchers who have displayed much better control than anticipated.
| Player | IP | TBF | BB | Spring BB% | Steamer BB% | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapman, Aroldis | 17.0 | 68 | 2 | 2.9% | 14.0% | -11.1% |
| Samardzija, Jeff | 20.0 | 79 | 1 | 1.3% | 11.9% | -10.7% |
| Laffey, Aaron | 20.0 | 86 | 1 | 1.2% | 10.4% | -9.3% |
| Sale, Chris | 24.0 | 96 | 2 | 2.1% | 10.8% | -8.8% |
| Eveland, Dana | 13.0 | 56 | 1 | 1.8% | 9.6% | -7.8% |
| Morton, Charlie | 14.0 | 66 | 1 | 1.5% | 9.2% | -7.7% |
| Bauer, Trevor | 10.0 | 41 | 1 | 2.4% | 9.8% | -7.3% |
| Nova, Ivan | 19.2 | 84 | 1 | 1.2% | 8.3% | -7.1% |
| Hanson, Tommy | 13.0 | 52 | 1 | 1.9% | 8.2% | -6.3% |
| Richard, Clayton | 14.0 | 69 | 2 | 2.9% | 9.1% | -6.2% |
TBF is Total Batters Faced
Aroldis Chapman– If only baseball organizations made decisions based solely on trying to win the most ballgames, rather than including money into the equation. If the Reds did that, clearly Bronson Arroyo would not be a mainstay in the rotation, and Chapman would finally get his chance. The only thing preventing Chapman from eventually becoming a bonafide ace is his control. Dialing down the velocity has certainly seemed to help with that problem. While it will surely lead to fewer strikeouts, he already induces a ton of ground balls, so some lost Ks won’t be a big deal if it comes with significantly improved control.
Jeff Samardzija– In one of the many surprises of the spring, Samardzija has won a rotation spot with the Cubs. He has struggled with his control in the majors and in most of his minor league stops, so this could be the first signs of a breakout. He also throws hard and has sometimes shown good strikeout ability, so the opportunity is there to be worth more than just an NL-Only league play.
Chris Sale– I have said all I need to about him, but he’s paired that minuscule walk rate with 22 strikeouts, so he has truly had a fantastic spring. Let’s hope for my reputation and fantasy team’s sake that this continues on into the regular season!
Charlie Morton– Once upon a time, I liked Morton. He induced grounders at an above average clip and his stuff seemed better than the pedestrian strikeout rates he was posting. Then he thought he was as good as Roy Halladay last year, changed everything up, and saw his already solid ground ball rate spike, while his control took a dive and he continued to not making batters swing and miss. Better control would go a long way into making him worthy of our attention in mixed leagues. He is coming off hip surgery and will open the season on the DL, but should make his first start soon after opening day.
Trevor Bauer– The tiniest sample size of the pitchers on the list, but given his top prospect status and poor control in a limited number of minor league innings, it’s still interesting to see. With only 25.2 career minor league innings to his name, it is pretty amazing to me that he had more than a 0% chance of making the rotation out of spring training. Aside from injuries, an ineffective Josh Collmenter appears to be the best chance for Bauer to eventually get his call this season.
Tommy Hanson– With a new delivery, the questions are going to linger as to how effective he will remain. The one walk is good to see, but that comes with just six strikeouts. Small sample size of course, like this entire analysis, but when a player is forced to change the way he plays the game due to an injury, you have to wonder. I am a concerned Braves fan and shied away from Hanson in all my drafts, even though he was going for a reasonable cost.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
I have an unhealthy affinity for Trevor Bauer.
If you own Hanson anywhere and somebody will give you draft-day, second-tier pitcher value for him, trade him immediately. Mysterious shoulder injury plus new delivery equals bad news.
I couldn’t agree more about Hanson.
Any thoughts about unhealthy affinities towards Trevor Bauer?
chapman will improve becuz he has no where to go but up
nova same thing, nova has a few steps to take before hes a solid #2 for the yanks, which is occupied by kuroda.
eveland and sale should improve too.
about Morton…….:”Then he thought he was as good as Roy Halladay last year, changed everything up, and saw his already solid ground ball rate spike, while his control took a dive and he continued to not making batters swing and miss”.
I’m sorry man, but seriously get a clue. Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage decided to change up his armslot in 2011 Spring Training because he was awful in 2010 so he needed to make a change. plain and simple. NEVER did Morton EVER say he was better than Roy Halladay!!! so that is just rediculous you even said that. and when the Pirates were all over the national media and baseball folks all over kept saying his “windup was like Halladay”, “he’s copying Halladay’s windup”, “he’s Roy Hallday lite”, etc etc etc. yeah his windup is like Halladay’s?? SO WHAT! it should not matter at all. Trevor Bauer’s is very similar to Lincecum’s, yet he does not get all this like Morton does. Max Scherzer’s is just like Verlander’s. It’s because he is with the Pirates, right?
May I ask you this, would you rather have preferred the 2010 Charlie Morton that went 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 53 ERA+, 6.8% walk rate, 48 % ground ball rate, and -2.5 WAR player?? because if so you are very crazy my friend
Wow, is Charlie your father? So much anger! Anyway, in 2010, Morton’s SIERA and xFIP were nearly identical to his 2011. So to be honest, he was no better last year. The higher K/9 and better control from 2010 seems like a much more sustainable skill set though.
no he is not hahaha. but I just have to continue to stick by my beloved buccos through the thick and the thin like I always have. even with the awful recent history, year after year I always see that hope. and I loved the changes Charlie made to his game (sort of like what McCarthy did, but not as big of results McCarthy had) and look forward for him to get off the DL and get in the rotation
Where did ‘rediculous’ come from, anyways? It’s too prevalent on the bathroom walls that are the internet to be a conincidence at this point..
I am sorry. I like this study and recently picked up Sale and Samardzija in a draft largely based (intuitively) on the same information. Seeing this post, I would love to believe that you are backing up my intuition. That said, I am trying to figure out what “Steamer BB%” is. It clearly isnt BB% as projected by Steamer, because these numbers are not even close.
While I am still pretty satisfied with my picks of Sale and Samardzija late in my 14 team (10 pitcher) mixed league I still would like to know what I am looking at above.
Ugh. What an amateur…. I was confusing BB/9 with BB% and totally confused myself.
Apparently, reading isn’t my strong suit, but maybe my intuition is.
Do you really say ‘ugh’ in real life? I’ve never met a male that does say that, so I’m legitimately curious.