After spending the majority of the week day-to-day with flu like symptoms, I mustered the energy to begin my mid-season Top Prospect List. Honestly, I’ve never been a fan of lists, as they often beget spats about order rather than rationale. Alas, we must give the people what they want! Thus far, here are some biggest risers from my pre-2012 Top 100 list and, of course, the all important rationale for their movement.

Oscar Taveras (Pre-Season Rank: 56): Oscar Taveras tore up the Midwest League. That is undeniable. But, coming into the season, some questioned if his free swinging approach would undermine his outstanding tools – myself included. I typically don’t care about a player’s walk rate prior to AA, but one’s walk rate is mutually exclusive from one’s approach to a plate appearance. Oscar Taveras doesn’t possess anything that would resemble plate discipline, but can one blame him? Previously, I’ve labeled his hit tool “uncanny,” his swing is long and unconventional but he simply does not miss the ball. Taveras has tools in spades, but it’s hard to go “all-in” on a guy with that approach. For me, he’ll have to prove at every level that his approach will not undermine his ability to make consistent quality contact. Still, I’ve got him moving all the way to my number 7 overall hitting prospect.

Mason Williams (Pre-Season Rank: 69): Just prior to creating my list Bullpen Banter colleague Al Skorupa took a scouting trip to see the Yankees’ outfielder. He followed the trip up with one my favorite pieces of the off-season, which includes enough .gifs to make your prospect-loving heart explode (and your browser too). The article started a heated e-mail exchange where I stood alone to argue that despite a small frame Williams projected to have average or above average power. Only time will tell if I was correct, but even so, Williams has an interesting fantasy profile. His speed is elite, and his ability to make contact is very strong. However, like the aforementioned Tavares, he too is a free swinger. Of course, he can’t steal first base and he doesn’t barrel balls like Tavares so his lack of discipline is slightly more worrisome. Still, Mason projects to a well above average defender with who can hit for a high average, steal a ton of bases and maybe even have surprising pop for a guy his size.

Rougned Odor (Pre-Season Rank: N/A): Unless you’re drafting based on awesome names, Odor probably isn’t selected in your league. If you don’t pick him up soon, someone else surely will because Odor is likely to be the top second baseman in the minors at year’s end. By my eye, he’s grown quite a bit and is now a very muscular young man. He’s going above average home run power for a second baseman and when I’ve seen him he’s has no problem bombing the ball the ball the opposite way. He’ll be exciting one to watch.

It’s not quite on par with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout being promoted within hours of each other in late April, but this week has seen its share of promising prospects getting the call, including a new shortstop in the A-T-L and a couple of quality arms out in Cali.

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This time, let’s hit on a recently-promoted outfielder, a shortstop with a masterful mitt and a bat that could help the Giants offense.

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Injuries are the theme in this installment. As in, one former top prospect’s current DL stint is costing him a golden opportunity, a used-to-be-can’t-miss player needs another shot before he suffers yet another ailment, and a future big leaguer could use some more aches and pains to befall those ahead of him if he’s going to make his debut this season.

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“Hello, boys! I’m baaack!”
–Russell Casse from Independence Day

Much like the so-crazy-he-has-to-be-right Casse from the 1996 summer blockbuster Independence Day and his never-ending efforts to prove non-believers wrong about his alien abduction, I am bringing back the Mining the Minors column to continue my quest to keep fantasy owners aware of lesser-known minor leaguers who are nearing the majors — and (crazy, I know) just might make an impact on fantasy teams in deeper and/or keeper leagues.

Or put another way: Just because many of these non-big leaguers are currently unowned in the vast majority of fantasy leagues doesn’t mean they should be, ahem, alien to you, dear fantasy owner.

For those of you new to this space, of if you just need a refresher on the method behind this column, I invite you to read the inaugural Mining the Minors from last season.

In the interest of staying current, I’ve taken the liberty of updating the above link with examples from last season of the various types of minor leaguers I’ll be checking in on this year.

1) Lesser-known prospects making names for themselves
2011 Impact Examples: Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve, Ryan Lavarnway, Juan Nicasio, Brad Peacock, Addison Reed

2) Solid but non-elite prospects
2011 Impact Examples: Jemile Weeks, Eric Thames, Henderson Alvarez, Lance Lynn, Josh Collmenter, Javy Guerra

3) Former top prospects whose careers had stalled or fallen off
2011 Impact Examples: Danny Duffy, Todd Frazier, Fautino De Los Santos, Alex White, Zach Stewart and Nick Hagadone

4) Triple-A veteran types
2011 Impact Examples: Ryan Vogelsong, Nolan Reimold, Brett Pill, Jose Constanza, Tom Wilhelmsen, Michael Fiers

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Fastball velocity is one of the most important numbers to focus on in a pitcher’s statistical toolbox. It has a high correlation with strikeout rate and when we saw an increase in velocity, good things should follow. Early on, we have heard about many starting pitchers suffering from a loss in fastball velocity, but some are actually enjoying a spike. I decided to only compare a starter’s velocity using the “Last 7 Days” filter so as to hopefully capture just the pitcher’s last start (or maybe two in some cases), since velocity does tend to increase throughout the season. These are the 10 pitchers with the largest increases so far:

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Sometimes us stats guys get accused of relying solely on esoteric metrics and watching nary a baseball game. Obviously, I cannot speak for everyone, but I would bet this is far from the truth. Though I am clearly not a professional scout, there are still easy things I can see on TV from a pitcher that can help us project his performance going forward. One of these is the pitcher’s velocity. We have learned that an increase of about 0.5 miles per hour in a pitcher’s fastball results in a similar gain of 0.5 in strikeout rate. Yesterday, I watched a lot of Jake Arrieta’s start, and as I type this, I am watching Ubaldo Jimenez pitch.

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On Monday, I published the findings of a study that determined spring K% and BB% were actually meaningful for pitchers. On Wednesday, I looked at pitchers whose spring K% were well above what the Steamer projections were expected, while I looked at the other side on Thursday, those pitchers whose spring K% is well below Steamer’s projected season mark. Today I am looking at BB% and will start with the pitchers who have displayed much better control than anticipated.

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Short but simple piece right here. I just finished drafting my 12th league, so with an “n” of 12, let’s see who I like. The simplest way to do this is to list the players I own most. So, here we go.

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For those that love to follow industry leagues, the Tout Wars drafts took place this past weekend in New York City.  In addition to their usual rundown, this year introduced a brand new Mixed League and as I was looking over some of the rosters, Josh Donaldson’s name stuck out to me.  He went for $4 to Rotowire’s Derek Van Riper who went with a “stars and scrubs” approach, but considering some of the other names that went for a buck, along with RotoGraphs’ reader Jeff’s question in the Catcher Tiers piece, it seems that Donaldson is on quite a few people’s fantasy radar these days.  Now the question remains, is he worth a look?

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