Angels
• Jack Kochanowicz made the Angels rotation, and the only place he’s rosterable right now is probably in AL-only leagues. There will be times he’ll be streamable, but for now, he’s a poor man’s Marcus Stroman. Both create a decent number of ground balls but can’t strike anyone out. At least Stroman had a 6.6 K/9 last season, while Kochanowicz’s was half that (3.4 K/9). Read the rest of this entry »
One day this flu will fully go away. One day. At least I’m no longer sleeping 20 of 24 hours every day and can actually do things, but my goodness this cough is something else. Anyway, let’s finish off our Gold Digging team by heading to the mound with five notable starting pitchers I’m drafting and monitoring this spring in hopes of seeing the signs that they are ready for a breakthrough. If you missed either part on hitters, you can check those out here:
DJ Herz | WAS – 316 ADP
Herz impressed in a 19-start debut, highlighted by a fantastic 28% K rate in 89 innings. He had some classic rookie issues with a 9% BB rate and 1.1 HR9, but the walk rate was actually the best we’ve seen from Herz at any stop in his career (15% BB in 321 MiLB IP). He has a legit 3-pitch mix, all of which can miss bats, and the young lefty was so adept at handling righties that he actually posted a better OPS against them (.651, 43 pts clear of his work vL). He will need to iron out some of his volatility to have a major breakout, but I’ll take the shot at this price point.
Pardon my delay in getting Part 2 of this article out, but I became extremely sick on Tuesday night and it completely cooked the rest of my week. I’m still not at 100% but at least I’ve been able to get out of bed and do some things before crashing back out for another few hours. My body couldn’t get sick in November-December?! January-February is quite literally the worst time for me to be out of commission for days at a time! At any rate, let’s dive back into our hitters and finish up the lineup. Just to refresh if you forgot from Part 1 or didn’t read Part 1, we’re picking our favorite hitters after pick-300. Next week, we’ll do pitchers.
Shortstop
Jacob Wilson윌슨 | OAK – 347 ADP
The #6 overall pick from 2023 debuted right out of the All-Star break and even got a hit in first MLB plate appearance only to suffer a hamstring strain in the 4th inning of that game and ended up missing a month-plus on the IL. Upon returning, he didn’t really stand out with just a .615 OPS, 0 HR/SB in 102 PA. The one positive takeaway was his plate approach: 10% K, 8% BB. Over the course of a full season, I like him for way better than the .250 AVG we saw in his debut. The projections agree, ranging from .269 to .287, so that will be the draw of Wilson as neither the power nor the speed are particularly special.
This is another one of my favorite offseason exercises. Last week, I went through the Steamer600 projections to uncover some potential gems who could break out if they get that kind of playing time. Today we’re on the hunt again, this time for gold (they’re minerals, Marie!) and we’re doing so by lopping off the first 300 picks of the Average Draft Position and then picking our players.
Later this week, I’ll have the rest of the lineup and then next week, I’ll share my pitchers.
Catcher
Hunter Goodman | COL – 313 ADP
This one is very straightforward: a super powerful catcher-eligible bat in Coors. He also played some 1B and LF so he could be a non-catching catcher. He must figure out how to hit first! Goodman clubbed 13 HRs in just 70 games last season, but his 0.13 BB/K was tied for 3rd-lowest (min. 220 PA) as he posted a 61 wRC+ in 224 PA. He did have a 0.35 BB/K (MLB league average: 0.36) in 1259 minor league plate appearances so he has shown some ability to draw a walk. Think Patrick Wisdom in Coors if things work out for Goodman. Wisdom clubbed 30 HRs/500 PA from 2021-23 despite a paltry 0.26 BB/K and .214 AVG in 1211 PA.
Let’s not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “Breakout”. These are guys I like at their market rate and have them outperforming their draft cost. Breakout, Sleeper, whatever your term is… these are the guys I like buying because they can deliver a strong profit.
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Kirby | SEA | SP | – | 33 | $25 |
| 2 | Evan Phillips | LAD | RP | – | 89 | $9 |
George Kirby is a Top 40 pick so we are dealing with small margins here to call him a breakout. He’s SP5 on my current rankings but will jump a spot to SP4 with the recent Gerrit Cole news. Kirby is in a tight SP8-10 window during early March drafts as you have to go to the decimals to separate the ADPs of Kirby, Pablo Lopez, and Tyler Glasnow. I’m obsessed with 80-grade command and can easily see a path toward more strikeouts as he further develops his arsenal entering his third MLB season. Even if his 23% K rate doesn’t jump, he’s one of the stronger bets for 200+ IP so he could still deliver a Top 20 K total.
Did you know that Baseball Reference lists one of Evan Phillips’s nicknames as High Leverage Honey Bun? That and that alone is why he’s on this list. OK fine, it’s not the only reason. Being the closer on one of the best teams in baseball coming off back-to-back elite seasons also drives my interest in Phillips. Some may be bothered by him only notching 24 SVs, but that didn’t stop him from being 5th best RP on the Auction Calcultor thanks to his tiny ratios (2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). I have no idea why he’s the 11th closer off the board… I’m taking maybe five guys ahead of him (Diaz, Duran, Hader, Clase, Doval).
Like with my Busts, I consider breakouts to be players who will out-earn their current costs. Most of the time, my breakouts aren’t exciting prospects but stable veterans who aren’t sexy anymore. If you want exciting picks, look elsewhere. If you want league winners, stay around.
3/11/24
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Below replacement level. Worth zero dollars. Heck, worth negative dollars if you roster the player. At least replacement-level players are worth $1. But, below replacement-level? That’s a tough sell. Some players are expected, projected even, to do worse than any other player available at any point in time during the season. So why write about them here?
11/17/23
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
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This past weekend, I participated in the NL-only live auction. It’s a 12-team league with 23 roster spots and six reserve-round picks. By the end, people are scraping for anyone with a plus and an MLB roster spot. I’m going to go over some of those late picks today to see if there are any I missed.
First, here are those reserve round picks and the full draft board is at RTSports. Read the rest of this entry »