So let’s dissect this bounceback. Stephen Drew put up a 109 wRC+, nearly 30 points higher than his 2012 mark. We can’t point to improved strikeout or walk rates; in fact, both of those trended slightly worse in 2013 (although the walk rate is well up over his career average).

Drew’s BABIP was the most significant contributor to the climb in batting average, jumping from .275 last season to .320 this. There’s no obvious marker in his batted ball profile that could have contributed to this; his line drives were down a smidge but the rest of his batted ball profile has been remarkably consistent across the board. Drew’s well-above average LD% contributes to high xBABIPs, with his last two years coming in at .341 and .317. Even not considered the fleetest of foot, there seems reason to believe his average should more closely resemble 2013 than 2012, at least in the near future.

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Year in and year out, you could usually count on Jimmy Rollins for double digit home runs, 30+ steals and a boat load of runs scored hitting atop the Phillies lineup. But his age 34 season was quite the disappointment as he hit the fewest home runs in a season for his career and posted his first sub-.100 ISO and sub-.300 wOBA. Heading into his age 35 season, it is fair to ask whether Rollins’ days of earning top 10 shortstop value are over.

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Starlin Castro’s 2013 season was such a disappointment our own Howard Bender has already stated Castro was the least value player for the 2013 season. I am not sure how much his owners paid for him, but I am guessing it was more than the -$4 he returned this season. The main problem with Castro’s declining production can be traced back to changes his approach at the plate which may continue into 2014.

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Every player is risky, and paranoia usually serves you well in fantasy. So even when you look at a player like Ian Desmond, who has gone 20/20 with a .280+ batting average in two straight years at a tough position — it’s worth checking under the hood and identifying where the 27-year-old could regress in the coming season.

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We have made it to shortstop week here in beautiful RotoGraphs country. So that means it’s once again time to check out the results of my Pod’s Picks at the position.

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The 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on shortstops.

The players were ranked based on their 2013 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 400 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiples positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

Analyzing prospects in short-season leagues can often be a confusing and fruitless endeavor. All three of pro baseball’s three large development hurdles–the jump to full-season ball, the jump to the upper minors, and the jump to the majors–remain in front of such players, and projecting how raw 17-21-year-olds are going to handle those difficult transitions years down the line cannot be done with much certainty. Still, there are plenty of relevant prospects in the short-season circuits, and today I’m going to discuss the first of a few that I personally viewed in the Rookie-Advanced Appalachian League in 2013: Mets shortstop prospect Amed Rosario.

Rosario had the distinction of being named the top prospect in the Appy by Baseball America, which immediately pegs him as someone to watch. So does his birth date: November 20, 1995. He was the youngest position player to open the year at the Rookie-Advanced level, which says a lot about how advanced he is for his age, even if the numbers he posted (.241/.279/.358 with a 43/11 K/BB, 3 HR, 2 SB, and a .941 fielding percentage in 58 games) veer closer to “problematic” than “exciting.”

But a player’s ranking on prospect lists and his raw numbers (particularly at such a low level at such a young age) do little to shed light on what sort of player he may become. For that, we have to turn to visual evidence.

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When discussing a fantasy baseball ‘Least Valuable Player,’ we’re looking at a few different things to factor in. Obviously, an under-performing stat line is one. But we’re also looking at the relative cost of the player in relation to other players at his position. If he didn’t cost you more than a 15th round draft pick or $2 in your auction and he didn’t perform well, then so be it. Very little harm done. But when you’ve used a third or a fourth round pick on him and he doesn’t meet expectations, it’s a much bigger deal. We’re also taking into account that player’s in-season trade value. Some guys who are in a slump, you can still trade them on name and reputation, but when the performance is so bad that no one wants to trade for them, an LVP award is just begging to be won. For me, this season, no one epitomizes the LVP award more than Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro.

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Jean Segura wasn’t the best fantasy baseball player in 2013. He might not have even been the best shortstop for fantasy teams this year. But given the context of projections with the overall production, Segura pretty much destroyed any reasonable expectation from the preseason.

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With just a week to go in the season, teams mostly fall into two firm camps: those with something to play for, and those without.

Teams with something to play for can be counted on to play mostly their top players, while those without could trot out an Astros-esque lineup without raising any eyebrows.

It makes the last week of the season difficult for those still lucky enough to have something to play for. Ideally, you want players on a “still playing” team, because their playing time is safer, against teams “not playing,” who may throw out terrible pitchers.

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