My 2012 2B keeper rankings begin today. The top tier players were the top 2Bs in 2011 and project to have the top fantasy talent looking forward (I will be using the talent rankings to create the 2B tiers). These 3 are good, so I will be looking deep for any troubling trends.

Dustin Pedroia (28 years old) – Dustin is one of the best players that contributes to all 5 standard fantasy stats. After having an injured left foot in 2010 that cost him half the season, he bounced back nicely in 2011.

I had to really look to find any real blemishes. The one trait that I have noticed is that his contact skills are on a bit of a decline (93% in 2009 to 87% in 2011). His strikeout rate has increased over that same time frame from 6.3% to 11.6%.

His walk rate though is also at an all time high (12%). It looks like he is being a more particular at the plate.

The change in discipline can also be seen with his FB%. It has gone from 41% to 33%, but his HR/FB has gone from 6% to 11%. In 2011, he hit less fly balls, but more of them left the yard for a career high 21 HRs. Generally, he is just showing signs of a maturing player with more walks, strikeouts and home runs.

He will be hitting at the top of a good lineup, so there will be plenty of Run and RBI opportunities. There is no reason to believe that Dustin will see any decline in 2012.

Ian Kinsler (29 years old) – Ian had a great season with 32 HRs and 30 SB. His value would have been much higher if his AVG had been better (0.255). Going into 2012, I could see him being the best 2B if he can combine both power and AVG at the plate.

The main drag for his value in 2011 was his AVG. His average was not down because of his K%, which was a career low (10%). It was down because of his 0.243 BABIP. Historically, Ian’s BABIP, raises and lowers opposite of his FB% and HRs. Here is a chart of BABIP, HR and FB% ordered by BABIP:

In the seasons he tries for more HRs (increase FBs), his AVG suffers (lower BABIP) and vise versa.

Ian is easily one of the top 2B in the league. The one knock I have is figuring out which Ian shows up. The one that hits 30 HRs with a 0.250 AVG or the one with 18 HRs and a 0.290 AVG. Maybe, it will be the magical season with 30 HRs and a 0.300 AVG.

Robinson Cano (28 year old): Robinson was himself in 2011. It was almost a mirror of his 2010 season.

The main trait dragging his fantasy value down, compared to the Kinsler and Pedroia, is his lack of speed. In 2011, he put up a respectable 8 SBs, which was 3 more than any of his previous seasons. If he is the top rated 2B in 2012, the ranking will hing on him putting up SBs in the 6 to 10 range vice the 3 he stole in 2010. It may not seem like that many SB, but these 3 2B are just that close in value.

Another key for Cano is where he bats in the Yankee lineup. In 2009, he batted equally in the 5th – 6th – 7th spots. In 2010 and 2011, he was normally in the 4th or 5th spots. It can be seen that his RBIs jumped from ~90 per year to ~110 per year. If he keeps this lineup position and A-Rod, Tex and the best of the Yankees continue to hit as in the past, he will be a great source of RBIs. If he is moved down in lineup (I don’t see much of a reason for a move) or those in front of him decline in talent (good chance), he may see his numbers decline.

Robinson is a top tier 2B, but normally in the past he had a near void in SBs. In 2011, he filled that void and his value increased. If he has some SBs in 2012, he will be an elite fantasy talent.

With the core background work done on my hitter evaluations, I have decided to apply the process to second basemen for 2012. This ranking is based off of all player’s stats given the same number of PA. This a look to see which players are the most talented. You can follow the process with this spreadsheet.

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There might not be a more up and down player in fantasy than Kelly Johnson. After establishing himself as a useful fantasy second baseman in 2007-2008, Johnson completely fell off that radar at the position after a dreadful 2009. Just when it looked as if Johnson’s usefulness as a fantasy option was at it’s lowest point, Johnson responded with an incredible comeback season; in which he was worth 5.9 WAR. In the same environment that Johnson excelled in 2010, he faltered in 2011. A change of scenery may have helped his value down the stretch, but it makes Johnson one of the riskiest fantasy players entering the off-season.

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It’s a light schedule today, with two American League games on the docket. But there’s still fantasy to be played — ottoneu Pick Six continues through the playoffs — so let’s take a look at a couple matchups for tonight.

Matt Joyce ($0.50)
Joyce comes with the right price and will probably end up on a lot of teams today because of it. His two-run home run in game two might make him even more tempting. But really the best reason to pick up Joyce is his platoon advantage against a pitcher with platoon problems. Joyce the lefty is going against Colby Lewis the righty, who has shown a 4.67 xFIP against lefties over his career (and a 3.97 xFIP against righties which has dropped to 3.5ish the last two years combined). The slider is Lewis’ best pitch, and the slider has platoon issues. Oh and Joyce likes sliders (+2.8 runs by linear weights). If only this matchup was in Texas, where those fly balls Lewis gives up turn into home runs more often. That’s okay, this is still a great matchup for the hitter.

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With the season swiftly coming to a close, I thought I would take a look back at some of my deep league waiver wire recommendations from early in the season. This exercise is not to gloat, but to examine the players and if their performance this year changes their future outlook and role for next season. Upon reviewing my recs, most did not do much, but two guys really stood out: Ryan Roberts and Chris Heisey.

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It’s the last full week of the regular season, so here’s some middle infield and pitching help for those of you needing to make up some ground in your leagues (or pad your lead, either works)…

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Today I am looking at available 2nd basemen (<10% owned) that could help a team in the last few weeks of the season.

Note: All owned numbers are from ESPN.

Scott Sizemore (6.7% owned) – Scott began the season with the Tigers before getting traded to the A’s. Since the trade, he has seen regular time at 3B. He looks to be a decent option for a team needing help at 2B (or 3B).

Scott has hit for decent power this season with 9 home runs in only 360 PA, with 2 to 3 coming in every month he has played. In September so far, he already had 2 home runs to go with a 0.294 AVG.

If you believe in going with the current hot hitter, Sizemore is your man. In the last 7 games, he has a 0.294/0.400/0.647 slash line. The improvement is not from an inflated BABIP (0.231), but instead from cutting his K% down from around 25% to 10%.

Also, Scott is qualified at both 2B and 3B. The extra versatility helps with maintaining a full active roster in the last couple of weeks. He will probably not be able to maintain his current increase in AVG, but for players owned in less than 10% of all league, Scott is probably the best 2B available.

Jimmy Paredes (2.1% owned) – Jimmy has been the starting 3B (2B qualified for this season) for the Astros since the 1st of August. He has produced a triple slash line of 0.300/0.336/0.433. On the surface he looks like a good option, but his stats are a bit inflated.

He currently has a 0.400 BABIP for the season. This BABIP will not be maintained (a season’s best value is usually around 0.380). Besides a BABIP adjustment lowering his average, he strikes out more than 26% of the time.

The key for Jimmy is that he is starting everyday and accumulating counting stats, no matter how small. If an owner’s AVG is set in the rankings for the season, it may be best to add a hitter like Jimmy. He is not a good player, but he is available and playing everyday (no platoon) and that is all some teams need in a player.

Trevor Plouffe (4.2% owned) is another option and Dan Wade recently wrote about him here at Rotographs.

This week, we continue our look ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief reminder of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catcher, First Basemen

Here are the second basemen.

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Usually Thursday’s are reserved for Kicking Rocks, but with such limited complaints and too few games remaining to do much about it anyway, it’s time again to play some Keeper League ‘Would You Rather…?’  Moving around the diamond this week brings us to second base and a pair of young, potentially studly long term options.

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Here is a list of 2B owned in less than 10% of all ESPN leagues. They might be able to help a fantasy team in H2H playoffs or for a final push up the standings.

Jamey Carroll (7.3% owned) – Carroll has not had a good offensive season, especially in the power stats, 0 HR and 12 RBIs. The one item he can hlep a team with is his 0.291 AVG and 10 SB. If an owner is looking good in HRs and RBIs, they could add Carroll to help stabilize or help an AVG that is being dragged down by the likes of Kelly Johnson. Also, Carroll has the flexibility of being qualified at the SS position. Finally, he has gotten plenty of playing time (11 straight games), so he will be available to generate a few counting stats.

Robert Andino (7.3 % owned) – Andino has little value besides helping a team in a deep or AL only league to have a roster-able full time player. His SLG (0.323) is below his OBP (0.326) which is a warning sign to stay away. He has hit a total of 2 home runs this season and produced 21 RBIs. His 0.258 AVG is 17 points higher than his career average, so it is about maxed out. The only way I could see him as a useable player for an owner that is extremely desperate for counting stats. With his 3 eligible positions, he could be used as a flex option on other player’s days off.

Jose Altuve (7.1% owned) – Altuve has be a fairly serviceable 2B since playing his first game on July 20th. He currently has a 0.310 AVG, but not a lot more stats to be impressed with (1 HR and 3 SB in 152 PA). Like Carroll, he looks like a nice addition for a team to solidify their AVG, while not gaining a whole lot in counting stats. Also, he could be a nice bench player to fill in on off days.

Johnny Giavotella (6.1% owned) – Giavotella had the chance to be an OK option at 2B, but Ned Yost just can’t get over his love affair with Chris Getz. Giavotella, the Royals AAA player of the year, started playing all the time when first called up, but is now playing intermittently. When he does start, Getz is used as a late game replacement. He should be a decent option, but with Getz still in the picture, I would stay away from him for now.