Joyce, Raburn: Pick Six Outfielders for Monday

It’s a light schedule today, with two American League games on the docket. But there’s still fantasy to be played — ottoneu Pick Six continues through the playoffs — so let’s take a look at a couple matchups for tonight.

Matt Joyce ($0.50)
Joyce comes with the right price and will probably end up on a lot of teams today because of it. His two-run home run in game two might make him even more tempting. But really the best reason to pick up Joyce is his platoon advantage against a pitcher with platoon problems. Joyce the lefty is going against Colby Lewis the righty, who has shown a 4.67 xFIP against lefties over his career (and a 3.97 xFIP against righties which has dropped to 3.5ish the last two years combined). The slider is Lewis’ best pitch, and the slider has platoon issues. Oh and Joyce likes sliders (+2.8 runs by linear weights). If only this matchup was in Texas, where those fly balls Lewis gives up turn into home runs more often. That’s okay, this is still a great matchup for the hitter.

Ryan Raburn ($0.50)
It’s a pair of fifty-cent outfielders today. Searching for the platoon advantage has gotten us here, but it’s worth wondering when you’ve gone too far in that direction. There’s a balance between the true talent of the hitter and the pitcher in the matchup, and CC Sabathia is a pretty good lefty and Ryan Raburn has been a pretty mediocre righty. But in 632 career PAs against lefties, Raburn has put up a 123 wRC+, and in 865 PAs against righties, he’s only managed a 92 wRC+. He’s a better hitter against lefties — more patience and power and fewer strikeouts. While Sabathia murders lefties (2.88 career xFIP), he’s more human against righties (3.92 career xFIP). Raburn is also a changeup masher (+10.6 linear weights runs career, second only to fastballs), and the changeup is probably Sabathia’s second-best pitch (+84.1 runs career). If you’re nervous about picking Joyce because you think everyone else will take him, Raburn makes for an interesting — and competitively priced — alternative. Or maybe you can put Raburn at second and take em both!