Their 30-something middle infielder of choice snatched out from underneath them, the Dodgers signed Mark Ellis to a two-year deal worth just under $9 million with a club option for a third year. The deal slots Ellis, who will turn 35 next season, between Aaron Hill — whose two-year deal is rumored to be worth 10-11 million, and who will turn 30 before next season — and Jamey Carroll, the soon to be 38-year-old that played 146 games for the Dodgers last season and who signed his own two year deal worth about $7 million. If the trend holds, there’s a 28-year-old second baseman looking to sign for about $13 million over the course of two seasons.

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The word “strange” doesn’t quite cut it when speaking of the off-season the Arizona Diamondbacks have had. When you’ve cornered the market on scrappy infielders (John McDonald, Willie Bloomquist and Aaron Hill) with a combined lifetime on base percentage (OBP) below .320 you’re practically begging for cyber ridicule. The signings of McDonald and Bloomquist should be inconsequential, as they shouldn’t see major playing time barring injury. However, Hill is slotted as the starting second basemen and that’s where things get interesting.

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Yesterday, the Bill James’s Projections were added to all the player pages here at Fangraphs. Bill James’s numbers seem to be on the optimistic side and are probably not regressed as much as other projection systems. It is all we have to work with for now though. With the projection numbers, I ranked the players according to their value among other 2B using Zach Sander’s formula for finding fantasy above replacement values.

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Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano

Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley

Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla

Tier 3 (Part 2)
Howie Kendrick
Kelly Johnson

Non Keepers
Neil Walker
Dustin Ackley
Jason Kipnis
Danny Espinosa (link)

Brian Roberts – Brian has probably the highest up and downside of any 2B going into the 2012 season. He missed most of 2011 with a concussion. If he is able to play full time and at full strength, he could put up 10+ HR and 25 SB. Also, he could barely play at all in 2012 (see Justin Morneau). There is no way he can be counted on for any production in 2012, so he should not be kept. I love him as a buy low candidate on draft/auction day though.

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Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano

Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley

Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla

Tier 3 (Part 2)
Howie Kendrick
Kelly Johnson

Non Keepers
Danny Espinosa (link)

I have already gone over the top 12 2B keepers for 2012. Here is a look at why several players were not included.

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Note: I have already gone over my main list of 2B keepers for 2012. Today, I am looking at why I didn’t consider Danny Espinosa to be keeper worthy.

Danny Espinosa produced some decent stats in 2011. He was a dual threat with power (21 HRs) and speed (17 SB). One main problem for him was his 0.236 AVG. On the surface, he looks to be a reasonable fantasy option for 2012. After looking at some various numbers, it seems like pitchers adjusted to him in the 2nd half of the season and it may be a rough 2012 season.

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Many fantasy analysts will tell you middle infield is the shallowest position in fantasy baseball. If you can’t get one of the top guys at shortstop or second base, you’re likely going to take a chance on a young prospect or a bounce back candidate. Gordon Beckham is one player that fits that mold perfectly. After being one of the most highly touted rookies following his 2009 campaign, Beckham has collapsed the past two seasons. With the future of his playing career potentially in the balance, is Beckham worth betting on next year?
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Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano

Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley

Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla

I see only two decent 2B keepers left, Kendrick and Johnson. I have a couple more articles planned on 2B left off my rankings. In my next article, I will look at some players that could be kept depending on the costs. The other article is on the flaws/questions that kept some of the other 2B off the list.

Howie Kendrick: Howie has generally been predictable with around 10 HRs, 15 SB and a 0.290 average. He produced at that level last season, except he hit 8 more HRs. His HR/FB% jumped from 7% in 2010 to 16.5% on 2011. In 2009 and 2010, his average home run and fly ball distance was 281 ft. In 2011 it jump 10 ft to 291 ft. The jump in HR numbers is real.

If there was one stat to watch going into 2012, it would be his K%. It jumped to a career high of more than 20% for 2011. He swung at and missed more pitches out of the strike zone than in the previous couple of years. He had problems with chasing pitches out of the strike zone early in his career and it looks like it may be returning.

Going into next season, I expect his HR projections to be a little low. Feel free to take a chance that he will continue on with his 2011 HR numbers.

Kelly Johnson – Kelly is a wild card in 2012 because of 2 unknowns surrounding him.

First, which Kelly Johnson will show up? The player that hit 26 HRs, stole 13 bases and had a 0.284 AVG in 2010. Or the player that hit only 0.222 while striking out 27% of the time in 2011.

Here is what I know:
1. He swings for fences and should have over 20 HRs given a reasonable amount of PAs.
2. He will steal 10+ bases.
3. He has no plate discipline right now. His K%, Swing% and Contact% has gotten significantly worse over the past 3 seasons. I would expect a low AVG.

His floor is 0.220-0.240 AVG, 15-20 HR and 10-12 SB for 2012. He has some upside if he can get the K’s under control and if his BABIP, 0.277 in 2011, is closer to his career average (0.311).

The second main factor affecting his value is what team he signs with and his role on that team. I would not set him as a keeper until this information is known. Is he headed to an offensively challenged team or back to Toronto? Will he be used in the 5th or 6th spot to drive in runs or hidden at the bottom of the lineup? Will it be a platoon situation? At least get an idea of how he will be used before setting him as a keeper.

Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano

Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley

Reminder, I have based most of these rankings off my 2B player talent values.

Michael Cuddyer – Cuddyer has one big question over his head right now. What team will he be on next year? Some reports have him back in Minnesota or with the Indians. Depending on the lineup and stadium of the team he signs with, his value will change significantly.

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After looking at the top tier of 2B, I will move onto the 2nd tier. The top 3 are much better than these 4 players, but the drop off after these three is much smaller.

I am basing the list heavily off of the talent ranking I did recently. As a general rule, the ranking did not like younger players with little MLB experience.

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