Is Gordon Beckham Done?
Many fantasy analysts will tell you middle infield is the shallowest position in fantasy baseball. If you can’t get one of the top guys at shortstop or second base, you’re likely going to take a chance on a young prospect or a bounce back candidate. Gordon Beckham is one player that fits that mold perfectly. After being one of the most highly touted rookies following his 2009 campaign, Beckham has collapsed the past two seasons. With the future of his playing career potentially in the balance, is Beckham worth betting on next year?
Thought to be one of the most “pro-ready” prospects in the 2008 draft, Beckham did not disappoint initially. Called up early in 2009, Beckham showed promise in the majors as a power hitting second baseman. In his rookie season, he also added seven steals, leading to some lofty projections for 2010.
Since that breakout year, virtually nothing has gone right for Beckham. Pretty much all of his rate stats have gone in the wrong direction since his rookie year. His walk rate has dropped, his strikeout rate has risen and his slash line has dropped every season. For a guy who was supposed to be prepared for the big leagues, Beckham has really regressed.
In some of his scouting reports, Beckham was recognized for having above average pitch recognition. Oddly enough, he still seems to have retained that skill despite his decline. Looking at his pitch type values, Beckham struggled against the curve ball last season, but was able to hold his own against other pitches. He was particularly strong against fastballs and sliders. Beckham was even able to improve against change-ups, signaling the first time in his career that he posted a positive pitch type value against the pitch.
Beckham may be able to recognize pitches, but he’s making poor decisions at the plate. With each passing season, Beckham has been more aggressive. This isn’t only reflected in his poor 6.3% walk rate either. Beckham’s O-Swing% has increased each season, meaning he’s chasing more pitches out of the zone. Opposing pitchers took notice, throwing Beckham fewer pitches in the zone last season. While he’s also swinging at more pitches in the zone, he’s struggling to make contact with those pitches.
One of the other majors reasons for Beckham’s struggles last season was his extremely high infield fly ball rate. Beckham’s rate soared to 21% last season. A player that hits such a high number of infield flies isn’t making great contact, and won’t post strong averages. If Beckham can’t correct this problem, he’s going to have a hard time posting batting averages in the .270s.
Because second base is so shallow, Beckham is going to be a late round “sleeper” at the position heading into most drafts. Based on his poor stats from the last two seasons, it’s unclear whether he really deserves a spot on your team. Beckham may have experienced success in his initial run, but it’s clear he has regressed the past two seasons. There’s always a chance that he rediscovers the magic of 2009, but let someone else deal with the headache next season.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Bottom line: Don’t go into 2012 relying on Beckham to start. If you have room on your bench, give him a look (so long as he’s cheap). Make sure the opportunity cost makes sense, you should only roster him if you can afford to sit him for months at a time without hurting your totals. If your bench is shallow and your league isn’t ultra deep, Beckham’s an easy avoid candidate.
Let’s keep in mind he came up as a 3B and had to transition to 2B in 2010 and learn on the fly. He had a strong defensive season at 2B this year — at just 25, and likely having settled in at the new position now, I’d be willing to give him a shot at least as a watch list guy, or on the bench in deeper leagues.
You mention all his rates went down, but fail to notice his LD% has increased each year. At least that is one positive 😉
I’m certain the coaching in Chicago was of no use to him. That staff seemed helpless watching Dunn and Beckham slide lower and lower last season. With all his inherent talent, Beckham has to bust out one day (ala Alex Gordon) and I bet a change of scenery or new hitting coach would do wonders. I’m definitely keeping an eye on him and will be ready to pounce when he finally locks in.
Whitesox hitting coach Greg Walker resigned at the end of the season and is now in Atlanta. I’m sure he’ll get around to ‘fixing’ Heyward.
This article implies that Beckham’s ability to recognize a type of pitch is still strong, but he can’t make good contact with the ball and is overly aggressive at the plate. Those problems indicate that his mechanics and approach is lacking development.
Beckham should probably use one more full year in AA or AAA before being rejoining the big leagues.