Ian Desmond has been a big part of the Washington Nationals’ success this season. The highly-criticized shortstop has found his power stroke, slugging 17 home runs already. But after struggling with an oblique injury for a few weeks, Desmond was finally put on the disabled list. With Desmond out, the Nationals will have to shift some players around to compensate for the loss. Their tinkering could have a strong impact on some fantasy players.
Last week, I looked at starting pitchers who have been trending both positively and negatively, by examining their last 30 day SIERA marks. Today I jump over to the hitters and check on the surprising ISO (isolated slugging percentage or SLG minus AVG) positive trenders.
On Saturday, I analyzed the five hitters whose HR/FB ratios have increased the most since last season and using various tools and metrics, tried to determine whether we might see a decline in the second half. Today I will look at the opposite end of the spectrum, those hitters whose HR/FB ratios have declined the most. Will they experience a second half power surge?
For all of the hand-wringing about Tim Lincecum’s sudden decline in San Francisco, there’s been another surprising implosion that seems to be flying far under the radar. Longtime Brewer Rickie Weeks, who had been essentially tied with Brandon Phillips as the National League’s best second baseman over the previous two seasons, limped into the All-Star break with a dismal .199/.314/.343 line. There’s more to life than batting average, of course, but of the 155 qualified hitters this year, he currently stands dead last, the only man in baseball with an average south of .200. His Brewers start the second half five games under .500 and eight games behind the Pirates after making it into October last year, and while the absence of Prince Fielder and the struggles of John Axford seem like obvious culprits, Weeks’ sudden transformation into “Brendan Ryan on a bad day” can’t be dismissed as a huge reason why.
It doesn’t take a ton of research to see Weeks’ biggest issue in 2012, and that’s that he’s simply having difficulty making contact. For a guy who struck out 20.8% of the time last year and had never topped 24.4%, seeing his whiff rate jump up to 28.6% this year is jarring. It’s the seventh highest rate in baseball, and at least some of the guys ahead of him – like Adam Dunn & Pedro Alvarez – are compensating for that with huge power when they do connect. Weeks isn’t putting bat on ball, and when he is, he’s either not making solid contact or not getting any love from the BABIP gods with a .267 mark that’s far below his career norms. It’s a bad combination, and the fact that the outcome is poor shouldn’t be surprising, though he is attempting to compensate with patience, leading to a career-high walk rate.
Yet despite Weeks’ sorry position on the bottom of the leaderboards, I like to think there’s some hope here, and not just because I have a hard time believing that a player with his track record can completely disappear in his age 29 season. Over the last month – arbitrary endpoints, I’ll admit – he’s looked more like the Weeks of old, hitting .280/.363/.460 in 113 plate appearances, along with two home runs in his final three games before the break. Read the rest of this entry »
Last year, Elliot Johnson was one of the worst hitters in the majors. With a 57 wRC+ backed by just four home runs, six steals, and a strikeout rate near 30%, Johnson’s lackluster performance had many questioning whether he would even earn any playing time this year. With injuries this year to infielders Evan Longoria and Jeff Keppinger and an even worse hitting performance from one of his primary shortstop competitors last year in Reid Brignac, Johnson has amassed 230 plate appearances and has been quite solid, netting a 110 wRC+.
Some of the performance is likely inflated, but Johnson has had a very effective year as a dual eligible middle infielder. An improved walk rate, reduced strikeout rate, and dramatically increased line drive rate have led to Johnson’s solid .275/.339/.386 line. The power has dropped, but the on base skills have improved as his ISO falls. Johnson’s biggest attribute in a fantasy context has been in his stolen bases, where he has nabbed 15 bags in 19 chances.
The baseball world is quiet. Only the All-Stars are stirring, and even that action puts many baseball fans to sleep. 90% of the game is on a three-day vacation — but not the gang here at RotoGraphs headquarters. Given the fact that all the teams have played more than half their games, it’s time to update the consensus ranks for the rest of the season. These are built for 12-team mixed leagues with traditional 5×5 stats, but we extended the rankings as far down as we could in order to give managers of all types a reference for the second half.
On Saturday, I identified a couple of players who fantasy owners might consider buying high on. I purposely ignored players who were expected to be top guys to begin with, but were having even better season than projected (David Wright, Adam Jones), as I preferred to look at more of the cheaper players with surprising performances. Similarly, the sell low guys will be players that were expected to generate high dollar values. I think it’s tougher to recommend selling low on a player than buying high, because we always preach patience and believe that a player will bounce back to his established level of performance, rather than weight the first 3 months of the season so heavily. At the risk of being very wrong…
Ben Zobrist had perhaps one of the more bizarre starts to the 2012 season. He staggered out of the gate carrying a .205 batting average in April, but walked at almost a 20% rate, giving him a .364 on base percentage. It was easy enough to chalk the batting average up to rotten luck and small sample size.
Then he spent May hitting .202/.321/.372. Concerns about the 2010 laid egg started to abound, and for good reason.
Today, I am looking at some possible 2B options for owners in deeper leagues. The following players are owned in less than 10% of the leagues at ESPN and Yahoo!.
Ownership percentages are ESPN and then Yahoo!.
Ryan Theriot (9%, 7%) – Theriot is just not a talented 2B and it really doesn’t matter. He is getting regular playing time (started 19 of the last 21 games at 2B for the Giants) and is hitting at the top of lineup (#2 hole in 19 of the last 20 games). Both “attributes” will help him to generated plenty of opportunities to score and drive in Runs. He just needs to take advantage of the opportunities.
For most of the second half of the new century’s first decade, there was little question about the two players at the top of the heap when it came to production from second base. Chase Utley in Philadelphia and Brian Roberts in Baltimore, just 100 miles apart via I-95, were the gold standard for power, speed, and defense. Between 2005, Utley’s first full season, and 2009, Roberts’ last, they were not only the two most valuable second basemen in the game, they were two of the top 20 most valuable players, period.
