Heading into the season, Addison Russell was ranked as the Cubs’ second best prospect and third best prospect in baseball. After finishing last year at the Double-A level, he figured to open the year at Triple-A and remain there for the majority, if not all, of the 2015 season. But that didn’t happen.
It’s second base week on RotoGraphs and that gives me the opportunity to perform the first review of my 2015 Pod Projection breakdowns. Anthony Rendon enjoyed a breakout year in both real and fantasy baseball in 2014 and given his previous top prospect pedigree, was then highly valued heading into this season. At the time of my Pod Projection, Rendon was being drafted 13th overall in NFBC leagues. Unfortunately, a knee injury that was supposed to only keep him out for a week or two to begin the season dragged on and on. He didn’t make his 2015 debut until early June and then missed another month with a quad strain. Ultimately, he finished ranked 35th in value…among just the second basemen!
The 2015 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. After looking at catchers last week, we continuing moving around the diamond and focus on second basemen.
The players were ranked based on their 2015 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and standard 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started. Players are listed only at their primary positions from 2015.
One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth. These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. A player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.
How do you mark the beginning of autumn? You have your choice: Labor Day has come and gone, football season is upon us and the Jewish calendar has already ushered in a new year. And the air is already starting to feel a bit chillier here in the northeast.
But we know the real indicator: it’s fantasy playoff time. Forget the sleepers, the stashers, the upside plays, the aching bodies recuperating on the injured reserve; all we care about now is who is available in deep leagues who can help the cause. Good thing we have two candidates available in a plethora of formats who fit that job description.
As usual, the players listed in this space are typically better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.
Read the rest of this entry »
…and it is delightful. Coming up with a topic to write about with only a couple of weeks left in the season is tough. So in the search for an idea, I fall back on my typical activity — leaderboard sorting! Though I routinely shake my head at any analysis that includes monthly or half-season splits, the performance numbers over those time periods aren’t always meaningless. Just the vast majority of the time they are. And since the vast majority isn’t quite 100%, I decided to check on the ISO leaders in the second half of the season, hoping to find a surprising name near the top. Sure enough, I found him sitting at sixteen. His name is Rougned Odor and he smells wonderful.
Usually, when you see a headline like this, as a reader you expect the article to answer the question posed. That might not be the case here. I’m writing this because — as of this moment — I have absolutely no idea what the answer is. Hopefully, by the time you’re reading this, I will have reached some sort of conclusion.
As so often happens when I write about baseball, I had no plans on writing about Anthony Rendon today. While researching another topic — which I will save for a later date — I went down the Rendon rabbit hole. The number of unanswered questions I found there interest me far more than any easy answers, so let’s talk about how the heck anyone can assess the future value of a player like this.
Three weeks ago I offered three (or four) starting pitchers for your consideration. In it I highlighted three starters who did not exceed various thresholds of ownership in Yahoo! fantasy leagues. Ken Erdedy liked it, and while I can’t tell if his name is real, it seems his sentiment was.
I anticipated returning with three hitters in a similar vein. However, I couldn’t help but highlight a particular hitter owned in an absurdly low percentage of leagues. (Alas, I got distracted, as I am wont to do.)
I’ll retain the format of my original post for kicks, but I have decided to point the spotlight entirely on him.
Delino DeShields Jr. (17%)
Ground-ball rate stabilizes fairly quickly. Usually, you’ll hear this factoid in the first month of the season as we look at April stats and try to render prognoses on the rest of the season. Of course, ‘stabilizing’ means that there’s about a 50/50 chance the data is meaningful in that small sample.
Hidden in that fact is the key to today’s look at the player population. Players change. They change their batted ball mixes in season, too, not just in April. And if you look at month-long samples, you’re pretty close to that stabilization point again. You want about 30 games to believe in ground ball numbers, and your qualified batters typically play around 25 games in a month.
And, since we’re now comparing July to June instead of April to all of last year, and we’ve already admitted that players change their mixes, it’s useful to remember that this is not some sort of skeleton key that will figure it all out for us. Still, we need to know which players are altering their batted ball mixes, because it might stick, and it might mean something going forward.
And for Christian Yelich, Adam Eaton, Brandon Crawford and even Jung-ho Kang… we could be seeing the future.
Every year, there are players who — for whatever reason — go completely overlooked in fantasy leagues, despite providing solid value. This year is no different. For today’s example, take Derek Dietrich.
The 26-year-old has been highly productive since his call-up in mid-June, hitting a robust .261/.368/.504 with seven homers in 136 plate appearances. However, his ownership rates remain miniscule (1% Yahoo, 1.9% ESPN, 4% CBS).
If you just started following the baseball season right now with no intimate knowledge of how every player’s current numbers were accumulated, you’d think Ian Kinsler was having a perfectly reasonable season. There’s been a power-for-on-base exchange, but he’s actually a point higher in OPS from last year at .728 through 398 PA so far. His 104 wRC+ is very much in line with the 100, 105, and 102 of the previous three years.
Alas, most have you have been following the season closely and know that he went nearly two full months without a home run before snapping the skid on May 30th. It took another 21 games and 90 PA for his second, but then just 11 games for the third and a mere six games separating that one and both his fourth and fifth, which were clubbed in the same game on Monday night. He’s still only on pace for nine homers which would tie his career-low, set in just 103 games, but his last 40 games suggest he’s back to being the teens-level home run hitter of the last three seasons.
Whenever a stark turn comes for a player, the first question is always “what’s different?”
