I’m running a little behind on my top 15s to keep up with Brad’s “Way Too Early” rankings, so I’ll be looking to get 2B and 3B out this week, and maybe even SS.

• Starting Pitchers Part 1, Part 2
• First Base

The middle infield positions really saw some of the biggest gains in 2016 thanks to the leaguewide power surge. I thought the position ran pretty deep in last year’s drafts, but I think it’s even deeper now. I’m only rolling out 15 here and there are another 10 I’d be OK slotting in as my starting 2B, let alone putting them at the MI slot. Yes, the upper tier is obviously better, but after that it really starts to cluster.

Let’s just get into it!

Jose Altuve | Astros – I’m coming out firing with big surprises at the top, eh? Altuve showed that the 2015 power jump wasn’t a fluke by adding to it. He nearly doubled his HR/FB rate and popped 24 homers, more than he had the past two seasons combined (22). There was a cost, though. His stolen bases dropped for the second straight season, including a major falloff in the second half which seemed to be tied to his move into the third spot of the lineup.

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Second base was arguably the deepest position in 2016. Typically a source of stolen bases and empty batting average, the keystone turned into a powerhouse for both fantasy and real teams. Here’s the weird part: the players who produced all this unexpected value were veterans.

Jose Altuve turned on the power switch, as did Brian Dozier, Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy, Jean Segura, Ian Kinsler, and others. With the exception of Segura and maybe Murphy, these are all players who were already considered the cream of the crop at second base. They exceeded all expectations last season.

The best case scenario for Trea Turner showed up in Washington for half a season. The Rockies finally let DJ LeMahieu bat in a prominent spot. Jason Kipnis had what would have been a top three season in years past. He was 10th best this time. The list goes on.

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We knew Trea Turner would be donning a Nationals uniform at some point in 2016, we just didn’t know when. That he didn’t end up debuting this year until early June, was then quickly demoted after appearing in just two games, and then didn’t return to become a full-timer until mid-July was a bit surprising. That’s mostly because no one expected Danny Espinosa to hold the shortstop job for long, but he managed to, as a big June (.452 wOBA) helped keep him afloat. And while fantasy owners had to wait a little longer than we hoped, Turner didn’t disappoint. He was the 12th most valuable second baseman this season, despite recording just 324 plate appearances! That’s literally half a season. Obviously, his half-season performances raises our expectations to epic proportions. But can we legitimately say he should be the 2nd second baseman off the board, or second highest paid second baseman in auctions in 2017? Brad Johnson certainly thinks so.

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Sometime between mid June and late July of 2015, something clicked for Daniel Murphy.  He transformed from a career singles hitter into a monster at the plate. He now threatens the defense with elite contact skill, pull power, gap to gap line drives, and an uncanny knack for slap hits.  He’s an all around threat at the plate, capable of out thinking some of the best pitchers in the game, breaking defensive shifts with slap hits, and pulling even great pitches for home runs. Murphy is difficult to pitch to or defend against, and as a result he’s been one of the best hitters in the game for the past year and a half.  This is a remarkable transformation, and very few people could have predicted just how great he has become.

There are a few things you need to know about this guy. For one, he’s a bit weird. I’ve watched just about every game he’s played since his rookie season back in 2008, and I feel like after watching this guy for a few years you see a little bit of everything.  Some of the most bizarre displays I’ve seen on a baseball field have included this guy in some manner or another.  I vividly remember the first defensive play he made in the major leagues, and I’m sure you can guess what happened, judging by his defensive reputation.  He whiffed a routine ground ball, slammed his glove on his knee, and then faked a throw to first base.  Just kidding. You might want that to have been his first play, because it’s fitting, but in reality he made a miracle leaping grab in left field that left most of the fans and broadcasters speechless. Oh, and he turned it into a double play, because of course he would.  Clearly, that sort of defensive play did not become his norm.

Through all of the ups and downs of Murph’s defensive woes, between the miracle spin-o-ramas, throwing to the wrong base, blind behind the back tosses and balls rolling through the wickets. Through everything fans have marveled and endured while watching him play, one thing has remained constant:  his elite ability to put bat to ball.

This is not the story of a player who got lucky or significantly changed his skill set at a relatively advanced stage in his career.  It is very tempting to paint that picture if you only casually watched his performance through the years.  Yes, he used to be a high average, no power guy.  Now he is an even higher average guy with power.  It’s weird.  Daniel Murphy is weird. But this isn’t about a change of skill set, this is about neuroticism. In order to understand his story you need to thoroughly understand his oddities, because they play a big part in his career trajectory. Read the rest of this entry »

Presently, you are reading the third part of a continuing series, the title of which can be found above this paragraph. Catchers and first baseman were already covered. Yesterday, we peered into the misty past to evaluate 2016 performances at second base.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments.

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Yesterday, we published the final 2016 second base rankings and dollar values. So let’s review my preseason Pod’s Picks and Pans at the position, where I identified those second base qualified hitters I was most bullish and bearish on compared to the rest of my fellow RotoGraphs rankers.

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It’s time to slide over to second base in our 2016 End of Season Rankings series. In case you missed the first two installments, check out catchers and first basemen. You can also dive straight into the auction calculator. It’s an easy way to estimate player value for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

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Carlos Santana had/is having quite the season. It’s his best by virtually any metric. Pick slugging, isolated slugging, strikeout rate, batting average, hits, home runs, even baserunning runs, and you’ll get either a career-best or second-best effort this year. He ended up the 10th-best fantasy first baseman and we have so many positive changes to choose from if we want to say why he was so good this year.

Here’s my guess: he swung more this year. I’ll explain, but it’s clear from his career-low walk rate and career-high swing rate that he was more aggressive. That might have been more important than anything else he did, and that might give us a road map to finding other mid-career breakouts like Santana.

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We’ve done a good thing for those of you that still care about fantasy baseball right now. The Auction Calculator now has 2016 stats as an option so that you can look backwards at what has just happened. That’s going to be part of our effort, on the way to the end of the year, to look at last year to learn more for next year.

This is an important part of fantasy that usually gets ignored. Not only does the league itself change year to year, so retrospection is important in that way, but we can learn things about fantasy itself that will improve our ability to value players going forward.

The fourth-best player in the game last year, by this list, has already inspired a possible change to the auction calculator going forward. Let’s see what else it jars loose.

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Earlier this week, I broke down the home run surge at catcher and first base, highlighting those who hit at least 20 homers and identifying some who could do the same in 2017. Today, I’ll be looking at second base and shortstop.

SECOND BASE

The keystone arguably experienced the most growth out of the power surge with an all-time high 15 players hitting at least 20 homers while qualifying at the positon. The previous high was 10 set in 2009 and if you add up the last four years combined, you only get 12. Yes, second base was where you could make power deficiencies from Giancarlo Stanton’s injury or Bryce Harper’s underperformance. It was kinda nuts. Here’s who did it:

Brian Dozier 42, Robinson Cano 39, Rougned Odor 33, Jedd Gyorko 30, Ian Kinsler 28, Daniel Murphy 25, Jonathan Schoop 25, Jose Altuve 24, Jason Kipnis 23, Neil Walker 23, Matt Carpenter 21, Starlin Castro 21, Jean Segura 20, Logan Forsythe 20, and Ryan Schimpf 20

Dozier and Cano were the only two to accomplish the feat last year. The last time more than four players hit 20+ HR at second base was 2011 when eight got it done. It’s not just that so many hit 20+, it’s that four were at 30+ and the aforementioned Dozier and Cano were 35+. The last time two second basemen went for 35+ in a season was 2003 when Bret Boone and Alfonso Soriano achieved the feat. Soriano was joined by Jeff Kent the year before, too.

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