Second base looks like a deep position heading into 2017. This is likely news to no one reading this column. However, something that goes overlooked a bit is how shallow the position is in NL-only leagues.

Taking a look at the average draft position for 2B, this becomes quite clear. After Nats teammates Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy, second-base options for NL-only formats grow thin in a hurry. Dee Gordon, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Peraza, Ben Zobrist, Jedd Gyorko, Logan Forsythe, Neil Walker and Josh Harrison round out the top ten. There’s a pretty big drop-off after Gordon and LeMahieu, both of whom I personally value significantly less than Turner and Murphy to begin with.

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On Monday, Scott Strandberg wrote that everybody is paying too much for Jose Peraza. The statement is based on NFBC ADP which has him going a round or two earlier than what I’ve seen in expert mocks. I wonder if it’s just the NFBC crowd that’s paying too much.

Scott makes good points, although I have some counter arguments. Peraza is going before high floor second basemen like Ben Zobrist, Logan Forsythe, and Neil Walker. Seemingly, you should pass on Peraza and take a vet, right? No, you should (probably) take both.  At least, that’s how I build my rosters.

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This far out from the start of the season, most of the average draft position data we have available is largely speculative, and understandably so. Still, I find value in analyzing the returns from this uncertain period, as it helps us develop some early trends going into our own draft/auction preparation. Second base is my usual beat here at RotoGraphs, so the other day I found myself examining the NFBC ADP for the position.

There’s other surprises in that data to save for another day, but today I’d like to discuss Jose Peraza’s position as the 12th 2B drafted. Peraza is currently going ahead of Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, Jonathan Schoop, Devon Travis, Jedd Gyorko, Starlin Castro, Logan Forsythe and Neil Walker. I’m sure we all have our own arguments about which of those eight names should slot in above Peraza, but I’m also fairly confident most of us prefer at least one or two of them to Peraza. Right?

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I love pouring over ADP data in the dead of winter to see how the next season’s market is shaping up. I didn’t touch on this in the first base/catcher review last time out, but I should mention that ADP is merely a guide and a partially blind one at that. It only takes one other person in your league to throw everything off.

This is where knowing your league is very important because if you know that most of the league takes their cues from ADP, it can be especially helpful. But if you play with a group of folks who march to their own drum – and it doesn’t even have to be the whole league, it can be just 2-3 people – then you’re getting very general information from it at best.

Anyway, I just wanted to make that clear before continuing this series. If anything, this is a jumping off point to give some thoughts on a handful of players at every position. We all know that this is a living, breathing market that is in its infancy for the 2017 season. Enough preamble, let’s get into the middle infield.

Previously: 1B/C

SECOND BASE (click through for ADP data)

• Jose Altuve (pick 4) has a remarkably narrow spread early on with a minimum pick of 3 and maximum of 7. He will go 2nd overall in some drafts by the end of draft season, too.

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Many times in fantasy baseball owners fall victim to name brands. While having familiarity with a player is necessary, often we don’t dive deeply enough into a player’s performance to get a clear idea of how much more valuable he is than his peers. Due to this, we will often pay more for something than we otherwise would if we were truly aware of it’s value. Today, I want to talk about the 2B position and one name brand that will likely cost much more in your annual Ottoneu auctions, or in trades, than a much cheaper generic option.

Any guesses? While the two players are strikingly similar, Mr. Name Brand certainly played more, with about 120 extra PAs over our and more power than Mr. Generic. However, the price difference is immediately evident. Across Ottoneu leagues, owners paid $16 more for our name brand option for roughly equal production across the board. The K/BB numbers are nearly identical, with both producing good power and higher than average BABIP results. While Mr. Name Brand bested Mr. Generic by 11 points of wOBA, xOBA (a statcast based  equivalent for  wOBA based on expected batted ball results) actually had our generic option with a 12 point advantage.  Final answers? Going once… twice? Read the rest of this entry »

Paul tackled the top 15 options at second base. Just missing the cut but earning an honorable mention was Devon Travis. Since reaching the bigs in 2015, he’s been a highly productive offensive player at the keystone position tallying a .301/.342/.469 line with a 119 wRC+. The biggest knock on Travis is that a shoulder injury that required off-season surgery last November has limited him to almost exactly one full season (163 games and 670 plate appearances) of work in The Show. The good news for Travis’ outlook going forward is that once he made his season debut for the Blue Jays on May 25th, he stayed healthy and avoided being bit by the injury bug the remainder (he did suffer a knee injury in the postseason that required an arthroscopic procedure, but he’s expected to be fully ready by spring training). Also, the further removed from his DL activation, the better Travis hit. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m running a little behind on my top 15s to keep up with Brad’s “Way Too Early” rankings, so I’ll be looking to get 2B and 3B out this week, and maybe even SS.

• Starting Pitchers Part 1, Part 2
• First Base

The middle infield positions really saw some of the biggest gains in 2016 thanks to the leaguewide power surge. I thought the position ran pretty deep in last year’s drafts, but I think it’s even deeper now. I’m only rolling out 15 here and there are another 10 I’d be OK slotting in as my starting 2B, let alone putting them at the MI slot. Yes, the upper tier is obviously better, but after that it really starts to cluster.

Let’s just get into it!

Jose Altuve | Astros – I’m coming out firing with big surprises at the top, eh? Altuve showed that the 2015 power jump wasn’t a fluke by adding to it. He nearly doubled his HR/FB rate and popped 24 homers, more than he had the past two seasons combined (22). There was a cost, though. His stolen bases dropped for the second straight season, including a major falloff in the second half which seemed to be tied to his move into the third spot of the lineup.

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Second base was arguably the deepest position in 2016. Typically a source of stolen bases and empty batting average, the keystone turned into a powerhouse for both fantasy and real teams. Here’s the weird part: the players who produced all this unexpected value were veterans.

Jose Altuve turned on the power switch, as did Brian Dozier, Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy, Jean Segura, Ian Kinsler, and others. With the exception of Segura and maybe Murphy, these are all players who were already considered the cream of the crop at second base. They exceeded all expectations last season.

The best case scenario for Trea Turner showed up in Washington for half a season. The Rockies finally let DJ LeMahieu bat in a prominent spot. Jason Kipnis had what would have been a top three season in years past. He was 10th best this time. The list goes on.

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We knew Trea Turner would be donning a Nationals uniform at some point in 2016, we just didn’t know when. That he didn’t end up debuting this year until early June, was then quickly demoted after appearing in just two games, and then didn’t return to become a full-timer until mid-July was a bit surprising. That’s mostly because no one expected Danny Espinosa to hold the shortstop job for long, but he managed to, as a big June (.452 wOBA) helped keep him afloat. And while fantasy owners had to wait a little longer than we hoped, Turner didn’t disappoint. He was the 12th most valuable second baseman this season, despite recording just 324 plate appearances! That’s literally half a season. Obviously, his half-season performances raises our expectations to epic proportions. But can we legitimately say he should be the 2nd second baseman off the board, or second highest paid second baseman in auctions in 2017? Brad Johnson certainly thinks so.

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Sometime between mid June and late July of 2015, something clicked for Daniel Murphy.  He transformed from a career singles hitter into a monster at the plate. He now threatens the defense with elite contact skill, pull power, gap to gap line drives, and an uncanny knack for slap hits.  He’s an all around threat at the plate, capable of out thinking some of the best pitchers in the game, breaking defensive shifts with slap hits, and pulling even great pitches for home runs. Murphy is difficult to pitch to or defend against, and as a result he’s been one of the best hitters in the game for the past year and a half.  This is a remarkable transformation, and very few people could have predicted just how great he has become.

There are a few things you need to know about this guy. For one, he’s a bit weird. I’ve watched just about every game he’s played since his rookie season back in 2008, and I feel like after watching this guy for a few years you see a little bit of everything.  Some of the most bizarre displays I’ve seen on a baseball field have included this guy in some manner or another.  I vividly remember the first defensive play he made in the major leagues, and I’m sure you can guess what happened, judging by his defensive reputation.  He whiffed a routine ground ball, slammed his glove on his knee, and then faked a throw to first base.  Just kidding. You might want that to have been his first play, because it’s fitting, but in reality he made a miracle leaping grab in left field that left most of the fans and broadcasters speechless. Oh, and he turned it into a double play, because of course he would.  Clearly, that sort of defensive play did not become his norm.

Through all of the ups and downs of Murph’s defensive woes, between the miracle spin-o-ramas, throwing to the wrong base, blind behind the back tosses and balls rolling through the wickets. Through everything fans have marveled and endured while watching him play, one thing has remained constant:  his elite ability to put bat to ball.

This is not the story of a player who got lucky or significantly changed his skill set at a relatively advanced stage in his career.  It is very tempting to paint that picture if you only casually watched his performance through the years.  Yes, he used to be a high average, no power guy.  Now he is an even higher average guy with power.  It’s weird.  Daniel Murphy is weird. But this isn’t about a change of skill set, this is about neuroticism. In order to understand his story you need to thoroughly understand his oddities, because they play a big part in his career trajectory. Read the rest of this entry »