Archive for Roto

As a RotoGraphs reader, I’ve always enjoyed Joe Douglas’s “Buying Generic” series. In past articles, he has compellingly compared “generic” players like Ryon Healy, Logan Forsythe, and Justin Bour to “brand name” ones like Jake Lamb, Jason Kipnis, and Carlos Santana.

The fantasy relevance of the exercise is obvious: Buying generic allows owners to acquire players cheaply and with relative ease, instead of paying a premium (whether in a trade or in a draft or auction) for a brand-name player.

For today’s comparison, we’re going to analyze two players who have played in parts of the last three seasons, but neither has eclipsed 350 plate appearances in any one year. Both appear on their way to full-time jobs in 2017 and beyond.

Here’s how Mr. Generic and Mr. Brand Name have fared since 2015:

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Plenty of bullpen-related news and notes on a busy Sunday afternoon. A few noteworthy items from Saturday are mixed in as well…

• With a 5-3 lead against the Nationals, Brad Hand struck out one in a scoreless eighth, and Brandon Maurer retired Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, and Anthony Rendon consecutively in the ninth to secure his sixth save of the season. Maurer was temporarily removed from the close’s role, during which time Hand filled in respectably, but at least for today things went back to normal. Although Maurer has a 6.52 ERA on the season, his peripherals suggest he’s been much better than that. He has an excellent 2.59 FIP and 2.66 xFIP on the season thanks to the fact that he’s only allowed four walks and two home runs in 20 innings this year, to go along with 23 strikeouts. While Hand is an excellent reliever in his own right, Maurer still appears to hold the edge in save opportunities, at least for now. If Maurer falters, however, it appears that the Padres are willing to pivot to Hand at a moment’s notice. As such, Hand worth targeting for those speculative on saves, and he’s certainly worth owning in holds leagues, as he’s on of the better set-up men in baseball.

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I wanted to take a break from my Effective Velocity research, and so, in honor of Anthony Rendon, I decided to take a look at streaky hitters. Before this season, I did not have a perception of Rendon as streaky. But so far this season, he has produced 5 of his 7 total home runs, 7 of his 21 total runs, and 15 of his 28 total RBI in just two games. That’s insane. It may not mean anything in this case; however, it makes intuitive sense that some hitters would be more consistent than others. And beyond even the desire to roster consistent hitters over streaky hitters in weekly formats, I think it is at least worth exploring whether it is possible to identify hot and cold streaks as they are happening and make start-and-sit decisions with them in mind.

The first step toward that goal is defining what hot and cold streaks are. Rendon probably isn’t the best example of that. In general, I think of a hot hitter as one who produces well above his typical level of production for an extended period. As a starting point, I decided to look at players who produced a wOBA over seven consecutive games or more that was either 110 points above their seasonal line (hot) or 110 points below their seasonal line (cold). That 110-point threshold is fairly random, but it is based on the difference in the glossary markers for an excellent and awful player over a full season.

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Back in early April, I wrote a Five Under 50% post in which I implored fantasy owners to invest in the likes of Nick Franklin and Dan Altavilla. I urged readers to steer clear of Marwin Gonzalez, and promised that Edwin Diaz’s job was as safe as they come.

Naturally, Franklin has a 38 wRC+, Altavilla has a 6.60 ERA, Gonzalez has a .419 wOBA, and Diaz is no longer the Mariners closer. Sorry about that.

Before you quit reading this post because, really, why should you trust me, just know that my predictions weren’t all terrible. I also forecasted success for Scott Schebler (.365 wOBA), Mark Reynolds (.419 wOBA), and Ryan Zimmerman (.469 wOBA), who have been among the best hitters in baseball this year.

Not every gamble will pay off. But when it does, it can transform a fantasy team. It’s been about a month and a half since my last Five Under 50% post, and with renewed confidence, I’m prepared to do it again now.

Below are five (actually seven; I cheated) players owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues whom I think may be worth an add in most leagues. There’s no need to jealously yearn for these players later when you can win them now for pennies on the dollar.

1. Chris Taylor (2B/SS/3B; 39%) Read the rest of this entry »

There wasn’t too much noteworthy bullpen activity on Saturday, besides Addison Reed’s high-wire act against the Angels, which he and the Mets ultimately survived. Sunday was much the same, save for a few relevant items:

• Koda Glover was the first man out of the Nationals bullpen, and it came with the Nats leading 3-2 with two outs and the tying run on second base in the eighth inning. Despite the fact that lefty Nick Markakis was due up, and left-hander Oliver Perez was getting loose along with Glover, manager Dusty Baker went with the righty and the decision paid off. Glover fanned Markakis on a 96 mph fastball, then, with the same score in the bottom of the ninth, Glover came back out to the mound. He surrendered a leadoff single, but then induced a double-play lineout and a game-ending popup. It was the 24-year-old’s third save of the season, and it came just two days after Shawn Kelley, who was seemingly first in line for saves in a beleaguered Nationals bullpen, pitched in the seventh inning of a tie game. As such, the bullpen situation in Washington remains highly volatile and red. Glover slots into the closer’s spot on the chart for now, but that is subject to change at any moment. Expect future save opportunities to go to one of the two, at least, though neither is a clear long-term favorite.

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Another exciting night of bullpen activity with full slate of games on Friday…

• Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto indicated in an interview on Fantasy Sports Radio that 26-year-old James Pazos could be first in line for save opportunities while Edwin Diaz works through mechanical issues that led to his demotion from the closer’s role earlier this week. Pazos has intriguing numbers across the board in 18.2 innings this year: he boasts a strong 30.9% strikeout rate, a 60.9% ground ball rate, and a tidy 2.41 ERA/2.66 FIP/2.78 xFIP. Diaz was so dominant last season that it remains likely he will eventually harness his mechanics and find his way back into the Seattle bullpen’s most prominent role. He pitched two scoreless innings on Friday, in which he allowed two hits and notched two strikeouts in the eighth and ninth innings of a tie game at home. Despite the scoreless outing, Pazos is worth a speculative add in most formats in case he gets an opportunity to close and runs with it. His numbers seem to indicate that he’s capable of doing so.

• Seung Hwan Oh blew a one-run save opportunity against the Giants on Friday. He allowed two singles and a go-ahead two-run double. Oh is now 10 for 12 in save opportunities, a nice recovery in that department after a very shaky start to the season. However, Oh’s peripherals point to a problem: his 16.3% strikeout rate this year is roughly half of the 32.9% K% he put up last season. He’s also allowed three home runs and nine walks in 21.1 innings. Add it all up, and Oh has an unsightly 4.91 FIP and 5.70 xFIP. Meanwhile, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has been mostly terrific in a set-up role (although he was charged with a blown save in Wednesday’s extra-inning loss to the Red Sox). Rosenthal has a 44.3% strikeout rate in 15.1 innings, and he should represent a threat to the struggling Oh. If Oh can’t turn it around soon, the Cardinals may have to make a move. The situation has been updated to yellow.

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Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon, and Jeurys Familia are on the disabled list. Edwin Diaz, Seung Hwan Oh, Kelvin Herrera, and Sam Dyson have had major difficulties. Greg Holland, Justin Wilson, Corey Knebel, and Bud Norris have been unexpected studs.

If you find yourself frustrated with the volatility of relief pitcher performance, you’re probably not alone. The names above represent just a handful of seemingly dozens of unexpected developments in the relief pitcher landscape that take place throughout the course of season and affect major league rosters and fantasy teams alike.

For example, a few weeks ago, I traded $6 Edwin Diaz and $3 Carter Capps for $9 Mitch Haniger in an Ottoneu fantasy league. Later, I flipped the $9 Haniger for a $9 Gary Sanchez. Read the rest of this entry »

Most of this report was done on Saturday, but there was one major piece of news on Sunday:

• Aroldis Chapman was placed on the 10-day disabled list with rotator cuff inflammation. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that Chapman will rest for a minimum of two weeks, at which time his condition will be re-evaluated, and that Chapman is “probably looking at [missing] a minimum of a month if everything goes right.” Chapman has reportedly been experiencing discomfort in the shoulder since late April, and he had to be removed mid-inning in his last two outings due to ineffectiveness. In Chapman’s place, Dellin Betances will have an opportunity to prove his worth as a closer. Yankees president Randy Levine and Betances’s agent had a public spat in February over the pitcher’s arbitration hearing that determined his 2017 salary. Levine vocalized his opinion that Betances sought too much money for a non-closer. Whether or not he’s accruing saves, Betances is an elite reliever, and now he will have a chance to prove it, at least for a month. If Betances wasn’t already owned in all formats, he should be now. Meanwhile, Chapman should be held onto in all formats, because he is arguably the best reliever in baseball when healthy. The Bullpen Report will continue to provide updates on the situation as they become available.

Now for the notes from Saturday: Read the rest of this entry »

To date, all of my Effective Velocity research has centered on pitchers. That is probably because the story that introduced me to the concept of EV focused on Trevor Bauer in the narrative, which tied the concept to the position in my mind. However, the more I’ve thought about it over the last several weeks, the more convinced I’ve become that catchers would likely share the responsibility for their pitchers’ EV adherence. After all, for every Bauer, there are probably dozens of pitchers who rarely if ever shake off the signs their catchers throw down. Meanwhile, the concept of EV falls into the game-calling strategy bucket that we more typically associate with catchers than pitchers.

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It was another fun weekend for bullpen activity across the major leagues. There was some all-too-familiar drama for a few teams, an injury to a key closer, and a couple of spectacular performances by an underrated set-up man. Let’s get right into the report:

• Francisco Rodriguez melted down in consecutive games against the A’s this weekend. On Saturday, with a one-run lead and two outs and nobody on in the 9th inning, he issued a walk, a game-tying double, and a walk-off single. On Sunday, also with a one-run lead, K-Rod walked the leadoff man, allowed a game-tying double, then, after a lineout, Ryon Healy hit a walk-off home run. The Tigers closer is now just 7 for 11 in save opportunities, and he’s allowed 19 hits, 11 earned runs, and four home runs in 11 2/3 innings this year. He has a 8.49 ERA/6.55 FIP/4.79 xFIP, and he’s only gotten ground balls on 29.3% of balls in play against him compared to his career mark of 43.3%. Rodriguez’s job should be in jeopardy after the back-to-back blown saves and the overall poor performance this year. Set-up man Justin Wilson has been excellent this season, pitching mostly in the 8th. He has seven holds on the year, and a brilliant 1.32 ERA/1.65 FIP/2.03 xFIP to go along with a 45.7% K%. The situation is “red” in Detroit, with manager Brad Ausmus saying after Sunday’s game that the team is going to discuss its closer situation during tomorrow’s off day, which is usually a strong indication that a change is forthcoming.

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