Archive for Roto

Short answer: No.

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With the trade deadline behind us and only the dog days of August/September standing in the way of fantasy championships, let’s start taking a more targeted approach to our pitching matchups, with each one we choose, whether stud or streamer, carrying even more weight as the season winds down.

We’ll do this by first looking at how each team has fared by the handedness of the pitcher faced, starting with those wily left-handers and ranking teams in wOBA, xwOBA, wOBA/xwOBA (on contact), SwStr%, Whiff%, and BB%. Baseball can always baseball at any given time but looking at these ranks gives us a good starting point for how teams have generally succeeded (or failed) against certain hands, both in overall damage and whiffs. Read the rest of this entry »

Making trades is fun for fantasy managers, but it’s tough. It’s really tough. You always feel like you’re getting tricked when you get an offer and you likely only make offers that look like tricks. There’s a better way. Now that the trade deadline has passed and closer roles have shifted, there are still opportunities for saves in your league and you can get them right off the wire. Here are a few key role changes that are likely to take place now that the trade deadline dust has settled. See if you can take advantage of a few.

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•Félix Bautista, BAL: Takes over for Jorge López. | Roster Resource

Bautista may be a large part of the reason the Orioles were willing to trade Jorge López. He is a must-add in all formats as he’s expected to take over the closer role right away. His Steamer rest-of-season (ROS) projection for saves is now at 10. Before López’s departure, Bautista had three saves and one blown save. While López did get nearly all the chances, Bautista has been the next man up for the majority of the season. It’s possible he may not be able to go as often as a closer given his max-effort style of throw. However, he has appeared in back-to-back games 11 times so far in 2022. It’s still likely that Dillon Tate and Cionel Pérez get opportunities to save a few games and their value has increased because of it. In addition, they should be given more opportunities to record holds, as they move up the pecking order.

•Scott Effross, NYY: Slots into a set-up role. | Roster Resource

Effross has been very impressive this season but he’ll still have to compete with Aroldis Chapman, the returned from injury Jonathan Loáisiga, and newly acquired Lou Trivino. He may be worth rostering in holds leagues, but he’ll be sharing a lot of those opportunities with some really good relievers. Our bullpen chart has him as the next man up for now, but we’ll just have to keep an eye on how the Yankees utilize him. He’s worth an add in deep leagues for sure.

•Jorge López, MIN: Takes over the closer role. | Roster Resource

Previously the closer role had been split between Jhoan Duran and Emilio Pagán, but López should be the main man now. While Duran still holds value with a steamer ROS save total of three, he’ll likely also be a very strong set-up man recording holds and wins. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him collect more than three saves the rest of the season, but regardless, his 2.15 ERA and 11.35 K/9 are valuable on their own.

•José Quijada & Ryan Tepera, LAA: Join a committee. | Roster Resource

Tepera now has a steamer ROS save total of 10 and if that’s the case, he needs to be added to fantasy rosters now. However, take caution as we have Quijada listed as a “Reliever on the Rise” and he was the first reliever to get a save opportunity after Iglesias was traded away. Was Tepera unavailable? Well, he did not pitch the previous day. Quijada’s ERA sits at 3.15 but his xERA is only 2.10, whereas Tepera is sporting a 4.26 (xERA of 3.59). Do you have two roster spots open? Probably not. This one is a gamble.

•Raisel Iglesias, ATL: Slots into a set-up role. | Roster Resource

I’m sure many fantasy managers who drafted high on Iglesias can agree that this is a bummer. Kenley Jansen will remain the closer in Atlanta. Will Smith had recorded five saves along with A.J. Minter before the trade deadline, so there is opportunity there. However, Iglesias has been shakey this season with his 4.04 ERA and limited chances for saves. I’m not dropping him, nor should you, but his steamer ROS save total is down to two and I would say there’s a two-save error bar on either side of that prediction.

•Mychal Givens, NYM: Slots into a set-up role. | Roster Resource

Drew Smith has 14 holds and he is one of 21 relievers with at least 14 holds on the year. Adam Ottovino and Seth Lugo are right behind him 12 apiece. The Mets are just about middle of the MLB pack with a total of 56 holds on the season. Oakland, of all teams, leads the MLB in holds with 75. I write all of this to make the point that Givens is a quality arm to roster in holds leagues. But, he was that way before the trade to New York so maybe this was all pointless to write.

•David Robertson, PHI: Joins a committee. | Roster Resource

Steamer’s ROS save total for Robertson is seven and that seems like a very reasonable mark. He’s probably going to get the lion’s share of opportunities, but Seranthony Domínguez and Brad Hand have been holding down the fort all season as Corey Knebel struggled and went through injury. Robertson was most likely rostered in your league but if he wasn’t, pick him up. Domínguez and Hand are also worth rostering until there’s more clarity in that committee.

•Rowan Wick, CHC: Takes over the closer role. | Roster Resource

With Robertson and Givens traded away, Wick is really the last man standing. His 4.36 ERA (4.93 xERA) is a little worrisome, but steamer’s ROS believes he’ll record another 12 saves! That likely has a lot to do with the fact that he’s clearly the man for the job, but I would take caution in believing he will get all 12 of those saves. The Cubs are projected for 28 more wins, but it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if they start testing out roles to see what they have in their younger arms. I would take the under, but I’m also running to the waiver wire to pick him up.

•Devin Williams, MIL: Takes over the closer role. | Roster Resource

Williams has been a closer quality reliever for a long time and now he gets the chance to prove he can handle the full-time role. Both Taylor Rogers and Matt Bush went through demotions from the closer role this season and need to find themselves again to be competitive for the job. If Williams is not already claimed in your league, who are you playing with? Pick him up now.

•Josh Hader, SDP: Takes over the closer role. | Roster Resource

Those who ran to the waiver wire to pick up Luis García upon Rogers’ demotion were probably elated for about 12 hours. Hader is a sure shot to take over the full-time role and fantasy managers who are not in holds leagues can probably drop García and Nabil Crismatt. As much as I wish Crismatt would close out a game or two on nothing but changeups, I don’t think it will happen.

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It’s Friday and I’m back from vacation, so let’s talk about bacon. Well, wOBAcon, anyways, or, weighted on-base average on contact, if you’re not into the whole brevity thing. Simply put, it’s how much damage a batter does when actually making contact. Easy-greasy. Read the rest of this entry »

We are going to need those TPS reports turned in by COB yesterday. That’s when the All-Star break officially ends. Did you think it was time to rest? Did you think it was time to relax with a nice piece of fictional literature by the pool? Wrong. Now is the time to assess how your team is performing.

Here are three easy steps you can put into practice to keep your foot on the gas and prepare yourself for success in the second half:

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They’re still an under-.500 team but the Miami Marlins are chock full of fantasy-relevant arms worth discussing. Sandy Alcantara has been a fantasy ace in 2022 and Pablo Lopez is knocking on the d0or (and actually staying healthy). Trevor Rogers is still far from expectations but has at least started being good enough to stop the mass cuttings, and Edward Cabrera is a hot prospect who showed flashes of excellence before hitting the IL.

Lots of exciting guys, with names you know (and roster). Obviously, we should talk about Braxton Garrett, a backend lefty who is less than 5% rostered on Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS, right? What can I say? I’m a sucker for change, particularly when it’s purposeful. Read the rest of this entry »

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before; Aaron Judge hits the ball hard.

On June 6th, 2022 Dylan Bundy left a changeup right over the heart of the plate for none other than current 2022 MVP candidate Aaron Judge. If you’ve never seen Aaron Judge before, he’s big. He’s not the type of guy you want to leave one over the heart of the plate for. Can you guess what happened? It was smoked. The ball was scorched 116 MPH to left field and while it doesn’t look like much of an issue for the left fielder in the video below, I can guarantee that if it were me (and probably you too) in left field, there would be more avoidance of the ball than intentionally getting in front of it.

Let’s take a look:

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After a rough stretch, Lucas Giolito is coming off of two great starts and is set for a matchup on Friday night with a Tigers team that has mostly been an offensive doormat for much of 2022. And since the mission statement here at NotBurt Inc. includes many mentions of setting ourselves up for success, clearly, now is the perfect time to question his performance going forward. Because where’s the fun without an added degree of difficulty? Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to watch a Nestor Cortes start without hearing the broadcasters mention his varied delivery. Baseball savant would agree, writing that his release points “tend() to [be]…very erratic”. I’m not writing about the effectiveness of altered arm slots or release points on a larger scale. Ben Palmer already did that over at PitcherList. I’ll instead simply write about Cortes and the outcomes he has produced with varied release points. If you want a deep dive on Cortes, look no further than Nicklaus Gaut’s fine piece early in the season.

Let’s jump right into an at-bat. Here we see Myles Straw facing Nestor Cortes on a 2-2 count:

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That’s a simple cutter with not much deception or deviation from a normal delivery. But, Cortes still has a pitch to spare and he adds in a little shake-up with this 2-2 sinker:

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Cortes comes at Myles Straw with the ol’ side sweep. Did it force Straw into a swing? Perhaps it created a little moment of inner thought from Straw like, “Ah…what’s that?..Uh..SWING!”. Or, did Straw simply see the change of slot and read the pitch as he would any other? Neither Cortes nor Straw really won this single-pitch battle and the count remained even. So, what did Cortes follow up with? Another 2-2 cutter:

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How different was the release point of that funky sinker from all the other pitches in that at-bat? Here are all the release points from that specific at-bat against Straw in the bottom of the third:

That sinker is relatively far off when compared to the other pitches Cortes has thrown. So, how about that one sinker compared to other sinkers he threw during his July 2nd start against the Guardians? Well, he only threw three in total, but they are significantly different:

Ok, “significantly different” is probably debatable. The small scale of this visualization creates a bit of deception in itself. Here are links to the other two sinkers if you’d like to make comparisons:

Non-Straw Sinker 1

Non-Straw Sinker 2

You will likely notice that Cortes’ sinker almost always comes from that side-arm angle. He’s not necessarily dropping down with a four-seamer to throw batters off. No, he’s using that delivery for sinkers. So, are hitters picking up on that more? Well, it may be hard to come to any conclusions given the small sample of pitches in the past two years and it depends on what metric you’re analyzing. But, from a BA/SLG/wOBA perspective, the pitch has remained difficult to put into play. Batters are coming up empty against the pitch more often, but it’s getting hit harder in 2022:

It’s nice to isolate Cortes’ sinker and view its performance from a few different metrics, but doing so doesn’t allow us to see if the release point has anything to do with its effectiveness. Cortes only throws the sinker about 3% of the time. Its average velocity is the same as his four-seamer and it’s vertical/horizontal movement measurements are not going to jump off the page. Yet, the delivery of the pitch is what makes it unique. In 2022 Cortes has been throwing the sinker almost completely from that side release point. Is it intentionally being thrown to keep batters off rhythm?

Source: Baseball Savant

If you look closely enough, you can see that there are just a few sinkers mixed in where the four-seamers usually are and vice-versa. When I first saw these images next to each other it appeared to me that Cortes has released a few sinkers with a four-seam delivery and a few four-seamers with a sinker delivery. I thought, “Wow! That’s some deception!” However, I think those orange (sinker) dots mixed into the red (four-seamer) dots are really just misclassified pitches. Here are two examples:

Possible misclassified sinker #1

Possible misclassified sinker #2

They sure look like four-seam fastballs to me, and since the two pitches have very similar average velocities, they’re probably difficult for a computer to differentiate. So, let’s just say they are misclassifications and that Cortes throws sinkers off to the side and four-seamers closer to his body. What now? Well, we have two somewhat similar pitches, one of them is released more over the top and the other is released more to the side and the question remains, is that variation effective? The best way I can think to measure this is to compare sinkers that were thrown directly after four-seamers and compare them to all sinkers. My thinking here is that if a batter has seen a fastball, more over the top, and then sees a sinker, more off to the side, is that better? Does that work? Let’s see:

There are many ways to measure this. Maybe you have some ideas of your own. Do share. The best I could come up with is breaking sinkers down into control and experimental groups. In this case, the control group represents all sinkers and the test group represents all sinkers that come directly after a four-seamer. The samples are too small to make any claims of statistical significance, but we can see that the control group is performing slightly better by SwStr%, CStr%, and CSW%. The test group hasn’t given up a hit yet, but what’s most interesting is that it produces more takes for balls. This is interesting in that when a batter sees that arm slot change, they may just lay off because they’re thrown off and would rather not swing. Does that mean Cortes should just try slinging a sinker into the heart of the zone because he knows hitters will be surprised and lay off? Maybe. I think in the grand scheme of things, there’s not much to wrap our fingers around here besides that.

I’ve always wondered if deception is worth the effort and this article was an attempt at measuring/testing that wonder. That’s really what it’s all about, isn’t it? Curiosity? It actually just seems that this is the way he throws his sinker. That could become an issue if hitters pick up on it, know a sinker is coming, and start mashing. But “mashing” isn’t usually a word you use in the same sentence as, “sinker”. I know that if I was ramped up for a fastball and suddenly I got the ol’ side sweep arm angle, I would hesitate on the swing. That could work to Cortes’ benefit. If that’s the case, he should throw a side sweep sinker right down the middle because he knows he’ll get a take. But, he should take caution, because if hitters pick up on that, and they will pick up on that, they could start seeing that arm angle and lick their lips. Luckily for Cortes, it’s a sinker that is hard to square up. There’s room here for further analysis, or there’s room here to simply sit back and keep an eye out for the altered delivery. $5 says the broadcasters will point it out too.

I do love change. No, not that jiggle jiggle that my fellow kids and I love to talk about these days but simply the act of one thing turning into another. Change doesn’t have to be good or bad; it can be both, either, or neither. And perhaps nowhere is this more apparent than when looking at the arsenals of major league pitchers. More of this pitch, less of that one, more velocity here, less movement over there. More horizontal for that, less vertical for this, one fish, two fish, v fish, nu fish.

But just because a pitch changes how it moves, doesn’t guarantee the results will fare better, a quality that is already rather subjective when needing to factor in a pitcher’s intent that isn’t fully known. However, changes are useful flags and can serve as starting points. And when seeing dramatic movement changes in key pitches, I can’t help but wonder, why. We’ll take a look at two such pitches today, thrown by two left-handers who’ve had similar overall fantasy value in 2022, though, not quite of the top-tier variety. More like SP4/5’s that have 2/3 aspirations. Read the rest of this entry »