Archive for Roto

After allowing back-to-back home runs to Taylor Ward and Mike Trout, surely Jordan Lyles won’t hang a belt-high grooveball to Shohei Ohtani, will he?

Cue 415 feet of disagreement:

Shohei Ohtani's #5 home run of the season
4/23/2023 pic.twitter.com/saQecvdsiG

— ¹⁷⚾︎ ²⁷ (@TrouTanishow) April 24, 2023

On the Agenda

1. News and Notes
2. Bumps and Bruises
3. Closer Kumite
4. Streaming Pitchers

News and Notes

Justin Verlander threw a 3 IP/43 pitch simulated game on Sunday. If all continues going to plan, he’ll make a minor league rehab start on Friday and look to rejoin the Mets rotation on May 3rd in Detroit.

Guardians prospect Logan Allen, was dominant in his major league debut, allowing one run and striking out eight over six innings in a win over the Marlins on Sunday. Unfortunately, we won’t get a chance to see an encore until next Tuesday when he’s scheduled to take on the Yankees in New York.

Jacob deGrom taking on the Oakland Athletics is borderline NSFW content. After being removed from his last start with a sore wrist, deGrom allowed 2 R (1 ER) over six innings in a win against Oakland, allowing just three hits and striking out 11. His next start is currently scheduled for next Friday against the Yankees, as those rostering him surely look forward to again holding their collective breath with every (healthy) pitch.

Remember when Max Muncy was “terrible” for those 10 days, or so? Since going double-dong on April 10, Muncy has a .384 AVG, 24% BB%, and 10 HR, including three more over the weekend (and his third double-dong of the young season). I’m starting to think his slump is over.

After missing nearly a week with back issues, Amed Rosario returned this weekend with a vengeance, finishing a home run short of the cycle in a 7-4 win over the Marlins on Sunday. With his return, top prospect Brayan Rocchio was shipped right back to Triple-A after failing to play in his ~24-hour call-up. Weird, Cleveland. Weird.

Braxton Garrett turned in another solid performance on Saturday, allowing one run over 5.2 IP in a 3-2 win over Cleveland, and now has a 2.84 ERA for the year. But don’t start feeling too froggy; Atlanta awaits in his next start, as does their .37o wOBA vs LHP (5th) in 2023.

I think Max Fried is feeling fine. After pitching five scoreless innings in his return from the IL, Fried held the Astros scoreless for 6 2/3 on Sunday, striking out five and ending with a no-decision.

With the Red Sox game on in the background, I briefly thought I’d entered a deja vu glitch but that was just Masataka Yoshida hitting his second home run of the eighth inning on Sunday, following his tie-breaking solo shot with a grand slam that shut the door in a dramatic fashion.

Bumps and Bruises

Logan O’Hoppe has a torn labrum and is expected to miss 4-6 months. Boo. Urns.

M.J. Melendez hit a home run in the first inning on Sunday but was removed with lower back tightness in the 4th inning. Consider him day-to-day.

Sandy Alcantara was scratched from his start on Saturday with bicep tendonitis but claimed on Sunday that he’ll be good to go for his next scheduled start against Atlanta on Wednesday. Counterpoint: never trust anything baseball players, managers, or GMs say about injuries.

Yu Darvish left his Sunday start with what was later revealed to be a hamstring cramp. It’s not thought to be serious and Darvish is expected to make his next start on Sunday against the Giants.

Closer Kumite

Will Smith picked up the Save for the Rangers in their 5-2 win on Sunday, and it was Jonathan Hernandez who received (and blew) an opportunity on Friday. José Leclerc hasn’t allowed an earned run this season but also hasn’t received a Save opportunity since blowing one on April 11.

Brusdar Graterol picked his first Save of the year on Saturday, entering to face the top of the Cubs order in the 8th inning with a two-run lead and staying in to finish things off after the Dodgers tacked on two more in the 9th. Evan Phillips (paternity leave) is expected to rejoin the team for their series in Pittsburgh.

Bryan Abreu picked up his second Save in a row on Sunday, with Ryan Pressly unavailable after last pitching on Friday. No further update has been given on said unavailability.

Craig Kimbrel picked up his second Save of 2023 on Saturday but don’t worry my little José Alvarado’s, that was just because you have continued your dominance by picking up three Saves in the previous four days. Alvarado now has a 0.87 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 10.1 IP, only allowing a run in one of his 10 appearances.

After José Quijada collected one Save on Friday and blew another on Saturday, it was Carlos Estévez who picked up his third Save in a 4-3 win over Kansas City. I’ll continue to want no piece of this closer carousel.

Streaming Pitchers

Streaming Pitcher(s) for Today

José Suarez, LAA vs OAK – If not now, when? But if it’s not today, Suarez’s spot in the rotation might start slipping away.

High Risk: Colin Rea, MIL vs DET

Streamer(s) for Tomorrow

Eric Lauer, MIL vs DET – The Tigers have been one of baseball’s worst offenses but they’ve been particularly bad against left-handers, with a .244 wOBA against them that is 30th (and 25 points lower than 29th) and a 32% K% that’s a whisper short of last. Eric Lauer is left-handed…See where I’m going here?

On Tuesday night the first round of the “Beltway Series” kicked off in D.C. and O’s fans showed out. It was a fun night all around. “Fired Up Guy” battled beltway traffic and came down to D.C. to give his support:

Heck, Yennier Cano even road the bullpen cart:

But the real fun was watching Dean Kremer work. Let me take you into a tense moment. It begins with no outs in the bottom of the third inning. CJ Abrams knocked a leadoff single into center field and waited patiently on first base. Next, Victor Robles reached, not first, but second on what was ruled an error by Gunnar Henderson. Take a look:

Read the rest of this entry »

I mean, this whole thing:

Max Scherzer has been ejected from today's game for using an illegal foreign substance on his glove

(via @SNYtv)pic.twitter.com/zjPSL2RJcf

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 19, 2023

On the Agenda:

1. Various News and Notes
2. Closer Kumite
3. Streaming Pitchers

Read the rest of this entry »

In Soviet Russia, sometimes Nimmo finds you:

BRANDON NIMMO ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! pic.twitter.com/by3zPkR7jt

— SNY (@SNYtv) April 16, 2023

On the Agenda:

1. News and Notes
2. Pizza Throw Day?
3. A Day of Duels
4. Streaming Pitchers

Read the rest of this entry »

Once there was FanGraphs – and it was good. But then came Stuff+ and things were even better. Granted, it also came with Pitching+ and Location+ but we’re going to use Stuff+ as our initial Guidestone today, considering the quickness of its stickiness in the face of our early season samples. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are four players who were projected by Steamer to steal at least 15 bags and are outperforming their wOBA projection:

Now, before you get all “snarky-comment” on me, Badoo and Thompson each only have 15 PAs and will be omitted from this analysis due to such a small sample. Only Myles Straw (46 PA) is a qualified batter, but Mateo (33 PA) is close. Yes, it’s early but just try to go into this with an open mind. For if you drafted, Myles Straw for example, you are probably pretty proud of yourself, sitting upon your thrown enjoying the grapes that are being hand fed to you while also being fanned to cool off from such a hot start. But, what can we expect from these surprises moving forward? If these are real gains, then we should expect even more stolen bases.

Myles Straw, CLE: BABIP is way up, but so is his BB%

Just look at the differences in his projected and actual batting average and wOBA. Over time, Straw will get closer and closer to that projected number. The real question is not, “Will this last?”, as much as it is, “Will he end up north or south of his projected numbers?” So far this year, he’s had a number of ground ball singles to the pull side. Here’s an example:

Straw is obviously very, very fast. But if Volpe is playing a little closer in and the third baseman doesn’t make an attempt on the ball, maybe it’s an out. It’s hard to say just how difficult of a play that was to make, but it doesn’t seem difficult to predict it doesn’t happen over and over again. It’s part of the reason Straw’s BABIP sits at .414 (current 2023 MLB average: .300). It’s completely unsustainable. Here’s a look at his spray chart and you can see a few ground ball singles to the pull side helping to inflate his BABIP:

Click to enlarge

Straw is destined to regress, but how far will he regress? In order to answer that, we have to see if there has been any significant change in his approach that might suggest he has made a change. Let’s look at his O-Swing% to see if maybe he’s better at identifying bad pitches:

No change there. How about his approach in different counts?

There’s some suggestion here that he has improved in 3-0 and 1-1 counts, but the sample is simply too small to make much of a conclusion from. But, if you look at his BB% towards the end of last season, he was trending in the right direction and appears to have picked up right where he left off. He’s done that before, just look at what he did in the second half of the 2021 season when he reached a peak 22.7% walk rate!

The early returns on Straw have been terrific and if you are rostering him, put him in your lineup until the well runs dry. He is an excellent base-stealer with a career 88% stolen base success rate. For context, Trea Turner has a career 85% stolen base success rate, though Turner has attempted significantly more 2B robberies. Only time will tell if his OBP (.449 2023, .326 Career) gains in the form of BABIP, wOBA, and BB% are more luck than skill.

—

Jorge Mateo, BAL: wOBA is up and plate-discipline trending in the right direction.

I went to my first Grapefruit League game this spring and was impressed with how good Mateo’s batted balls were looking. He just kept smashing the ball, but right at a defender. He’s always had issues with plate discipline but at the end of last season, he started to bring his rolling averages down on swings and swings outside of the zone:

If he can work on his approach, specifically when he’s behind in the count, he could see OBP gains that would directly impact his stolen base accumulation. He is at his best when he’s ahead in the count, like in 3-1 and 2-1 counts, but he could be even better when ahead in the count. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be at or above league average in 3-0 counts. There is no reason, at all, that Mateo should be given the green light in 3-0 counts. Even if he takes and gets to a 3-1 count, he will be at his very best. So far this season, Mateo has faced four separate 3-0 counts and has taken a called strike on the next pitch in each plate appearance. That’s good. Those four plate appearances ended with a walk, a pop out, a strike out, and a hit by a pitch.

While Mateo’s plate discipline metrics are trending in the right direction, he is outperforming his expected stats, which is the opposite of what I observed in Sarasota:

AVG:.286 xAVG:.231
–
SLG:.500 xSLG:.426
–
wOBA:.383 xwOBA.324

Even still, his .324 xwOBA is just below the current league average (.328) and that’s a step in the right direction as his career-best came in 2021 when he put up a .287 xwOBA. He’s barreled the ball twice already, but that doesn’t come close to league leaders Matt Chapman and Bryan Reynolds, who each have 12 on the year. Let’s take a look at Mateo’s barreled balls:

–

Barreling balls for home runs is good fun, Mateo just needs to do it more consistently. At the end of last season, he was putting the ball on the ground less often and hitting it harder more often, and while those trends seemed like they might continue in 2023, he’ll need to increase his launch angle more consistently to make an offensive impact:

One thing is clear, base-stealers are stealing bases at rates that suggest the projections could be way off the mark by the end of the season. Now is the time to find base-stealers who have made some kind of approach or skills change that get’s them on base more often. Each one of Straw, Mateo, Badoo and Thompson should be added if they are available. If the sample size gets larger and the gains smaller, you can always drop them.

*Stats in the opening table were created on Wednesday, April 12th.

12 wins were calling:

Pete Fairbanks always looks like he just got frightening news on his glove phone. pic.twitter.com/66dJhEWbwk

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2023

Pete Fairbanks closed it out and Taj Bradley won his major league debut, pushing the Rays streak to 12 wins. Bradley struck out eight and allowed 3 ER over 5 IP in the 9-7 win over Boston. His four-seamer averaged 96 mph and generated a 33% SwStr%. His counterpart, on the other hand, was roughed up again – Chris Sale allowed six runs (5 ER) on seven hits over four innings in the loss. Sale now has an 11.25 ERA over his first three starts, lining up to face the Angels next Monday. Read the rest of this entry »

The Bloodline comes to MLB:

Sean Manaea and Blake Sabol became the first Samoan pitcher and catcher pair to start an MLB game 👏

"It's amazing. There's not too many of us Samoan baseball players. To form a battery like that is incredible for all of us." – Manaea

(via @MLB) pic.twitter.com/SUHpjyRLko

— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) April 9, 2023

On the Agenda

1. IL Apocalypse
2. Easter Dongs
3. Monday Morning FAAB Attack: Wiemer Business
4. Streaming Pitchers

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We’re only a week in, so our time is probably better spent on things other than hemming and hawing about hitters having good and bad starts. One week of games probably shouldn’t be changing our opinions of anyone but it can be useful to get an early handle on how and where players are being utilized. Things are going to change (and drastically!) but I like to take a long look at early-season lineups in order to get a rough handle on what managers are considering as their best bets for everyday lineups.

With that in mind let’s take a spin around baseball and see what can be gleaned from early lineups and possible platoons situations, starting with the National League. Read the rest of this entry »

That’s one:

JORDAN WALKER'S 1ST CAREER HOME RUN! pic.twitter.com/xxi9sVba1G

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) April 5, 2023

On the Agenda:

1. Quick Hits
2. The IL Cometh
3. Closer Kumite
4.  Happy Coors Day!
5. Streaming Pitchers

Read the rest of this entry »