Archive for Roto

Before I was a FanGraphs writer, I was a FanGraphs reader. And if there’s one thing FanGraphs readers know how to do, it’s cite BABIP to describe why a hitter has been lucky/not lucky. BABIP is a useful peripheral, but it doesn’t stand on its own. There are peripherals to the peripheral if you will. Specifically, I’m referencing a player’s batted ball profile, which affects both his BABIP and ISO.

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• I hate to see Jose Fernandez needing Tommy John surgery (TJS). His owners really should not have been totally surprised the injury happened. While it is impossible to predict exactly which pitchers will get injured when, Fernandez had some injury risk signs coming into the season.

1. He threw hard. When Matt Harvey had TJS last season, I looked at extreme hard throwers to see if they have more injury risk. Among only 15 starters, there was a heightened risk. I would hate to draw too many conclusions from a sample of 15, but the trend continues.

2. He threw a ton of curve balls. Over 30% in 2013 and in 2014. Previously, I found pitchers who throw their curve more than 25% of the time have a 50% chance of going on the DL.

3. He hadn’t yet established himself in the majors. Pitchers who have been able to make in the majors for three complete season are about 10% points less likely to be DL bound.

All three factors put Fernandez at a higher than normal injury risk.

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Plate discipline is an unheralded casualty of this new era of depressed offense. There have been 19 players with a .15-to-1 walk-to-strikeout rate or worse in a qualified season since the end of the dead ball era in 1920, and there are 11 players on that pace so far this season. Increasingly, that leaves fantasy owners stuck with sub-.300 on base players and their correspondingly low batting averages and runs totals in even moderately deep formats.

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Over the last week, a trio of interesting pitchers joined their respective American League teams’ starting rotations. While two of the three were likely already owned in AL-Only leagues and almost have to blindly be slotted onto a fantasy team’s active roster, the bigger question is whether these guys are worth considering in shallower formats. Let’s dive in.

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-Just when we thought we figured this whole Angels bullpen thing out, Mike Scioscia sent Ernesto Frieri to the hill in the eighth-inning with a three run lead, then provided Joe Smith with the opportunity to close out the Phillies and earn the save. Scioscia’s comments following today’s game indicate that he’ll continue to mix-and-match Frieri and Joe Smith in the ninth frame depending on the particulars of the save situation. Two factors — the score, and part of the order due up (among other foreign forms of managerial reasoning) — will be considered when the skipper calls for his choice closer. Although Scioscia’s comments suggest he would eventually like to name one closer for the remainder of the season, this continues to feel like a closer-by-committee situation. If you’re chasing saves, you’re looking to grab shares of both players until one of these guys — presumably Frieri — proves worthy to work closing situations regardless of situation.
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Welcome to the regularly updated Top 50 Impact Rookies for 2014. This ranking tool grades freshman players based on their projected MLB impacts for 2014 only (not future years) so it will vary significantly from typical Top 50 or 100 prospects lists.

*Masahiro Tanaka (and other Japanese hurlers) has been omitted due to his service time in Japan, as well as the level of competition. Cuban and Mexican imports have not been omitted due to the lower level of competition in their respective countries.

Updated: May 12, 2014

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It’s another truly deep dive in this week’s waiver wire adventure. Since I’ve been asked several times, the deep league edition of the weekly waiver wire is typically meant for Mono league owners. Or perhaps if you play in a 20-team mixed league, you could use these recommendations as well.

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It’s very sad. The man that threw the most curveballs in baseball (with the highest whiff rate among curveballs) is now hurt. It’s almost like there’s been work on the subject.

But Jose Fernandez is gone. You can’t have him back, not this year. So it’s time to hit the wire. And let’s use some whiff rates to see what we can find. I’ll just look for surprising league-leading pitches in each category. One standout pitch might be enough for you right now, especially if it comes with some other surprises once we jump in.

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Once a hitter displays a skill, he owns it.

That can be one of the hardest axioms to remember in fantasy baseball, as down seasons or exceptionally cold stretches make us turn our backs on a player for good. Never is that harder than when the matter of skill ownership gets clouded even further by the process of aging – a skill is owned, sure, but it can also erode over time.

Given those factors, I understand the trepidation in buying into 35-year-old Jimmy Rollins coming off of perhaps the worst season of his career, one in which his home run total dropped to just six in 666 plate appearances, his strikeout rate continued inching higher and his isolated slugging all but fell off the face of the earth. But Rollins’ early-2014 resurgence is worth examining for several reasons.
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It’s not unusual to find several unexpected names among the top fantasy producers at a position nearly a quarter of the way into a particular season. Because they’re unforeseen, they aren’t necessarily among your league’s most owned players.

At some point, though, some antsy owner will have begun to question his loyalty to a player he drafted when the season-to-date performance of a player he didn’t is still rated higher in his league’s free-agent list. Even though at some point in the near future, regression to the means of both players would seem likelier than not to benefit him, ignoring signs of changes in their baseline performance and reliability.

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