Archive for Roto

The economics of keeper and dynasty leagues intrigue me because no two owners value the future equally. Given my primary league is of the keeper taxonomy, I am always thinking about the future. Given the especially miserable state of my team in said league, I’ll soon reach a point where I am only thinking about the future.

A segue of remarkably poor quality: Joc Pederson is good at baseball.

Another segue of questionably better quality: he reminds me of George Springer for reasons not entirely surprising.

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Would it be too awful a pun (or half-pun) to say this week’s column is a tribute to fallen angels? Probably, so I’ll rephrase: Here are two former full-time players who lost their jobs after some struggles but have now returned to regular playing time. As usual, the players featured in this column are better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.
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Yesterday, I put my xK% equation to good use by identifying five starting pitchers the formula suggests has strikeout rate upside. As usual, today I take a look at those with strikeout rate downside. These are the pitchers whose xK% are well below their actual K%.

Warning: these are very good pitchers!

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We did it! We made it all the way around the diamond. We’re finishing, fittingly, with our closers and middle relievers and for that we brought the Bullpen Report crew aboard. Alan, Darren, Colin, and Benjamin join myself to tackle the bullpens. Here are the other positions and you can also access them via the Positional Rankings in the right sidebar:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Shortstops
• Third Baseman
• Outfielders
• Starting Pitchers

If a ranker didn’t rank someone that one of the others did, he was given a +1 of their last rank as I’m sure you noticed in the other positions.

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It’s been a little while since I last used my xK% equation to identify pitchers with strikeout rate upside. So now that we’re about a third of the way into the season, it’s time to take another look. The five pitchers discussed below all have xK% marks well above their actual K% marks. My equation isn’t perfect, of course, just like all formulas that act as skill estimators, but it should work pretty well at the extremes at predicting the direction of future stat changes.

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NL OF Tiers: May
NL OF Tiers: Preseason

I love Bob’s Burgers. That love stems from a love of H. Jon Benjamin, which stems from a love of Home Movies. However, I do not find Archer all that funny. It is the lesser show, and that’s that.

I’m sorting the tiers by secondary characters in Bob’s. It’d be too easy to rank Bob’s family. Or would it? Should I? No, I won’t. I’ll stick to the game plan.

Aside from the top tier, the rest of the hitters are ranked loosely in their respective tiers. An argument could be made for all of them to move up or down a couple of spots.

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It’s rankings update time! As you may have consistently noticed as the updated RotoGraphs consensus rankings for hitters have gradually been released, two months of performance is hardly a large enough sample size to move the needle all that much for me. Unless there is a clear explanation for a change in performance and/or underlying skills, then more often than not, the player is going to revert to what you had him projected for in the preseason.

For pitchers, it’s essential to remember that ERA is not a skill. It’s just a result. So I don’t really care what a pitcher’s ERA is at the moment. What I’m really interested in is their peripherals and any changes in pitch mix and/or velocity. And even if their peripherals have changed, you then have to ask yourself if its sustainable. Again, more likely is that what we initially forecasted is what is going to be posted the rest of the way, though obviously this is not always the case.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

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I am humbled by the interest in my expected isolated power (xISO) equation since its inception. A fairly simple but helpful tool, I take solace in hoping it maybe has helped one fantasy owner identify a smart buy-low candidate — or reluctantly cut bait on Carlos Gonzalez. I also appreciate the feedback and recommendations for improvement and expansion. I will take care to consider their implementation when I have more available time.

It’s important to remember that Steamer and ZiPS also provide updated and rest-of-season (RoS) projections for most players. Hitter ISOs aren’t listed on the page listing all projections — only slugging (SLG) and batting average (BA) are included, forcing the user to perform some light arithmetic — but ISOs are listed on each hitter’s personal page. And they are not fundamentally different from the expected ISOs I have calculated for you today (spoiler alert). For reference, I crunched the correlation coefficients of every qualified hitter’s current xISO versus his current Steamer and ZiPS ISO projections:

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Whatever it is they do in St. Louis, it works: The Cardinals are 33-18, the best record in the majors, and if the past decade is any gauge, we might as well go ahead and put them down for another postseason berth in 2015. With such success, let’s see if two little-owned position players on the team, both of whom have recently come into playing time, can provide help to deep-leaguers.

As usual, the players discussed in this space are better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.
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Yesterday, I discussed the players fantasy owners in CBS have been scurrying to pick up over the last week. Today I’ll look at the opposite side of the coin, those players you’re dropping like a hot potato. In general, fantasy owners seem to be far too quick with their mouse clicking, willing to drop players after a week-long slump. Even if they are near replacement level to begin with, there’s no benefit to such churning and playing the “hot hand”. It will just increase your stress level, without actually improving your team. So let’s see if that’s the case with the top dropped players this time, or if the moves are justified. I have excluded players on the disabled list.

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