There weren’t many games on the schedule today so just a few brief bullet points for tonight. I’ll be sure to use the comment section below with any additional news that comes up later this evening or into tomorrow.

• Jim Johnson lost his closer’s role to a committee in Oakland but he might be returning to the ninth inning. Via Jane Lee, Johnson’s latest run has “elevated” his chances of regaining the closer’s role according to A’s manager Bob Melvin. Johnson’s 5.73 ERA isn’t fun to look at but he’s thrown 7.2 scoreless innings in a row since April 11th with eight strikeouts against just two walks.  Earlier this season Johnson was struggling with his command, so it’s promising to see him throw strikes more consistently. A 3.83 xFIP doesn’t equate to shutdown closer, but it’s close to his career norms. If Johnson’s control is back to form while he continues to kill worms, his chances of being the closer in Oakland relatively soon look promising.

• Carlos Martinez threw a scoreless eighth inning tonight lowering his ERA to 2.93. Martinez “only” has 13 strikeouts in 15.1 innings pitched this year but his fantastic 13.5 SwStr% indicates more Ks are in his future. Martinez has maintained his high 90s velocity this year (96.9 mph) and projects to be one of the better set up men in the league. In a holds league, I’d look to buy low on Martinez’ good but not great and average K-rate if possible, knowing that both are likely to improve. Martinez won’t be sniffing saves unless Trevor Rosenthal gets hurt or moves to the rotation, neither are necessarily likely scenarios but the latter might be something to keep an eye on in deep dynasty leagues, as Martinez would clearly be the next in line.

• Brewers lefty Will Smith (2.46 xFIP) struck out both batters he faced tonight and has yet to allow a run in 11.1 innings this year. Smith’s walk-rate has been a bit high thus (4.79 B/9)  far but it’s been basically average throughout his minor league career and brief time in the majors, so I don’t envision it being a concern. Smith is still behind Jim Henderson (who threw a scoreless inning tonight) on the saves ladder, but if K-Rod needs a day of rest (the dude gets saves daily) Smith could see an opportunity against a lefty heavy lineup.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• The Yankees activated David Robertson from the DL today but he didn’t enter tonight’s game against the Red Sox. Shawn Kelley did an admirable job filling in but the ninth inning definitely belongs to David Robertson in the Bronx. If Robertson’s healthy, his above average control and elite strikeout ability could easily make him a top ten closer. Of course we all know that, it’s why we drafted him as such just a few months ago. Of more interest might be Dellin Betances, who’s 0.93/1.59/2.15 ERA/FIP/xFIP and 14.90 K/9 could make him a more major player in the back of the Yankees bullpen as the season goes on. Adam Warren received a save opportunity this season, but projecting these guys forward Betances will likely provide more value with his strikeouts, and once he develops a trust with Girardi he could see more consistent meaningful innings.

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• Kyle Farnsworth received his first save opportunity as the Mets closer tonight and converted it, allowing just one base hit to Yadier Molina in a scoreless inning. Colin went into some great detail last night about this situation so I certainly recommend you check out what he said if you have not already. Farnsworth is getting saves and therefore is worth owning (duh), but just as he was worth owning with Valverde at the helm, Gonzalez Germen is now worth a look for those in need of saves.

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• Jose Valverde’s days as closer might be numbered. Valverde entered the ninth inning tonight and gave up a three run homer to Justin Upton. Although none of Valverde’s runs were “earned” it’s the fourth home run he’s allowed in his last three outings. Papa Grande’s been able to miss more bats this year (13.5 SwStr%) but his gopheritis and control issues may have come to an end, at least as the closer. Via David Lennon Collins is going to “have to talk about Valverde as closer“, which means teams should look to add Kyle Farnsworth immediately. As of this writing a change has not been made but I’d expect Kyle Farnsworth to get the next save opp for the Mets.

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On Mondays I write about daily fantasy strategy. On Wednesdays I’m supposed to write about closers. To be frank, I enjoy the topic I have been assigned for Mondays much, much more. I despise chasing saves (as I discussed a couple of weeks ago), and the guys doing the Bullpen Report really have relievers covered. But a commenter on one of my recent daily fantasy strategy posts asked me a question that involved both daily fantasy strategy and closers. The commenter wanted to know how viable it is to use closers in daily contests.

Closers are usually the cheapest players available in daily contests. In today’s contests on Draftstreet, the 34 cheapest players are relievers and only 2 relievers have a price tag above $3,000 when the average salary of all non-relievers is just over $6,000. The obvious reason is that relievers are the only players that we don’t know whether they’ll play before their game starts. That uncertainty drives the price down and is why I’ve ignored using closers to this point. But I may have been doing it wrong. Read the rest of this entry »

• With David Robertson heading to the DL, Shawn Kelley will be taking over closing duties in New York.  Kelley is effective and can generate lots of swings and misses but also gets many outs via the fly ball (only a 30.5% GB% in his career), which can obviously lead to occasional rough outings, fast. I’m not trying to scare owners away from Kelley but it’s important to not just check his K-Rates and quickly label him a great option. With that said, I would still run to pick up Kelley while Robertson remains on the shelf. I’ve been touting him in the early part of the season but Dellin Betances should be moving up the bullpen chain as well although I think the Yankees might go to Matt Thornton before him at this point. Still, Betances has looked impressive thus far, striking out five batters in three innings pitched with his high 90’s gas.

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Welcome to RotoNotGraphs. Despite the whimsical title, we have an actual topic to discuss today – who is throwing very hard?

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• While I was speculating that Bobby Parnell’s neck was the cause of his issues and decreased velocity, it was actually his arm (shocker) as he has a partially torn ligament in his right elbow. Parnell is avoiding surgery for now, resting for a few weeks before being reevaluated but this doesn’t look good. I would still stash Parnell on the DL if you have him, but I wouldn’t bet on Parnell making a full recovery, closing game for the Mets this season anytime soon. As he did in Detoit last year, Papa Grande is back and closing games for the Mets. Don’t let Jose Valverde confuse you, he’s not a good pitcher but he’s healthy and in line for saves, go grab him now if you haven’t already. Behind Valverde should be Jeurys Familia, who wasn’t effective last night, Gonzalez Germen and even Kyle Farnsworth. For now it’s Valverde without an obvious choice as second in line. However, if Papa Grande fails and this goes to a committee type approach, it might not even be worth the trouble.

• Speaking of closer-by-committees (and horrible segues) that’s what the Astros are working with, narrowing their choices down to three – Chad Qualls, Matt Albers and Josh Fields. In tonight’s game against the Yankees, Bo Porter went with Qualls in the eighth with a six run lead. Qualls ended up giving up an inherited run as well as one of his own and Matt Albers finished the game in the ninth in a non save situation. It’s hard to glean anything of value from this one game besides the fact that all three should factor into saves in Houston. As of now, I’m keeping Qualls first as he’s probably the best of the bunch but this isn’t a particularly satisfying situation for baseball viewers or fantasy owners alike.

• Brian Wilson will be placed on the DL with elbow problems and nerve irritation according to Ken Gurnick. In his place, I suspect Chris Perez will be the primary set up man but Paco Rodriguez and J.P. Howell, who pitched the eighth inning tonight, will also be in the mix. Chris Perez had a rough go in Cleveland last year but if you squint hard enough there was a 3.83 xFIP and 3.40 SIERA last year. Perez isn’t flashy enough to own for ratios or strikeouts, but anyone who is one pitch away from closing deserves to be on watch.

• Holds Alert: He didn’t receive a hold today as the Yankees were behind all game, but Dellin Betances looked mighty impressive for the Yankees in his inning of work, striking out two batters in a perfect inning. Betances’ velocity was in the high 90s, reaching a peak of 99.3 mph. He might be lower on the totem poll now in New York but with only Shawn Kelley and Matt Thornton ahead of him, it won’t take much for Betances to be a main setup option, receiving higher leverage holds on the reg.  David Carpenter got a hold in the eighth inning tonight for the Braves, although he gave up a run. I suspect Jordan Walden is still next in line for the Braves, but it’s worth noting as each situation plays itself out early on this season.

• Quick Hits: Steve Cishek pitched a perfect inning for his first save of the year. Kenley Jansen was far from perfect allowing three guys to reach base, but he didn’t allow a run en route to his first save. Craig Kimbrel pulled a Kimbrel, striking out the side for the save. Sergio Santos tried his best to blow the game but barely held on for his first save of the year as Casey Janssen remains on the DL. Santos is undoubtedly the closer with Janssen out (although Brett Cecil was warming up tonight) but if he continues to struggle look for Steve Delabar to get a look. And for those disgruntled Janssen owners, Santos’ struggles means Janssen would be more likely to reclaim the job upon his return.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

You know, I can advocate for different types of leagues. I can talk about the pros and cons of head-to-head, and how redraft leagues are great for the refresh, and about deep leagues and shallow leagues. It’s my job!

But when it comes to playing, to the leagues I actually join, the rubber hits the road. In other words, I vote with my wallet when I join these leagues, because I’m spending actual time and energy in this way. So I thought I’d look through my leagues and see what kinds of leagues I like. And while I’m there, I might as well count up my pitchers so you can see what sorts of arms I’m investing in. My arms and my leagues, and now you know what I *really* like.

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Bruce Rondon is just the latest hard throwing pitcher to need Tommy John surgery (TJS). Besides Rondon, it seems like just about every pitcher who throws over 100 mph ends up needing repairs on their ulnar collateral ligament. Neftali Feliz. Brian Wilson. Stephen Strasburg. Matt Harvey. I decided to look at the injury rates of pitchers who can throw the magical 100 mph.

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