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Archive for Relief Pitchers

Did It Work?

Back in early March, we took a look at why pitchers work on new pitches and the ones that were doing so during Spring Training this year. Both Jensen Lewis and Josh Zeid offered their thoughts as pitchers that have gone through the process of adding a new pitch at the major league level. Martin Perez, Sean Doolittle and Jake Odorizzi gave quotes to writers in camp explaining why each was adding a new pitch in 2014.

Adding a new pitch does not guarantee success nor will it instantly improve the prospects of one’s career. The previous article cited examples of how new pitches aided Wade Davis, Kevin Correia and Ross Detwiler while it had a negative effect on Clay Buchholz.

Now that the season is three-quarters complete, we have enough of a sample size to ask the simple question: did the new pitches help?

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Bullpen Report: August 12, 2014

Steve Cishek had the night off and the Marlins went with Bryan Morris to start the ninth inning with a three run lead. After recording two outs and allowing two base runners, Mike Dunn came on for the one out save against the lefty Matt Adams. As we noted last night Cishek’s job is still safe but today’s outing gives us some insight into the pecking order behind him. I’m in agreement with the grid as Morris and A.J. Ramos set the table for Cishek. However, as a solid LOOGY, Dunn could steal a save opportunity or two when a tough lefty arises.

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Bullpen Report: August 11, 2014

Matt Lindstrom will be activated tomorrow and while he may see some time in the ninth inning before the year is over, I wouldn’t drop Jacob Petricka just yet. Petricka isn’t as good as his ERA suggests (2.02) but he’s done well enough to merit holding the job over a just off the DL Lindstrom. If you really need saves then take a flier on Lindstrom but he only has value if he’s seeing the ninth inning as he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff and is unlikely to even help your ratios. However, those in holds leagues could take a more serious look, as Lindstrom should find his way into some later, higher leverage innings, even if it’s not in the ninth.

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Holding Their Own: Familia, Morris, Maurer

I find mining for holds to be a pretty thankless endeavor. While one might gripe about wins and saves being particularly fickle (and of course, potentially meaningless), every time I feel like I have a grasp on my holds for the season, the ebb and flow of late inning talent wipes it all away. With that in mind, there are a few guys I’d like to draw your attention to relative to holds.

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Bullpen Report: August 5, 2014

Carlos Carrasco’s move to the bullpen brought some intrigue to see what he could do handling one or two inning workloads. Tonight he was extended a bit throwing four innings and allowing three runs, but he still struck out five batters while issuing just one walk. Carrasco has an above average strikeout rate and an even more impressive swinging strike % (11.6%) indicating he has actual bat missing ability. He won’t make much noise this year and Cody Allen has a tight grasp on the closing gig in Cleveland, but Carrasco is someone to eye next year as he may be called on to pitch higher leverage innings. As a reliever, Carrasco’s allowed only 11 runs in 43 innings this season. Surprisingly his K-rate has declined in the relief role but I’d toss that up to small sampling as he has legitimate swing and miss stuff. It’s likely that Carraso has found a new permanent home in the bullpen and he can certainly help your ratios, strikeouts and even get a hold or two.

• There wasn’t a save situation tonight with a four run lead in the ninth inning but A.J. Ramos got the final two outs of the seventh with Bryan Morris pitching a perfect eighth. That seems to be the standard operating procedure for the Marlins at the end of games these days, with Morris and Ramos handing it off to Cishek. Over the last couple of seasons, Steve Cishek’s name has either been involved in trade rumors or as a closer who could lose his job. Sadly, to speculative fantasy baseball owners, neither of those has come to fruition. The Marlins were buyers at the deadline and nothing should really change next year so expect a lot of Ramos – Morris – Cishek moving forward in Miami.

Jonathan Papelbon struck out the side in a tie game in the ninth inning tonight, albeit while also issuing two walks. Papelbon doesn’t serve a large purpose on a team in the Phillies situation, so he’s clearly on the table in trades up until the waiver deadline on August 31st. Such a trade might not be likely but each performance will be crucial for his trade value.

• There was a minor transaction today as the Nationals picked up lefty Matt Thornton from the Yankees after placing a claim on him. Thornton’s 2.55 ERA is nice but his 0.0% HR/FB suggests some good fortune and his 3.90 xFIP isn’t too appealing. Back in the day Thornton threw gas from the left side, always striking out more than a batter an inning. In recent years, Thornton is still throwing gas from the left side but without the same swing and miss results. In fact, over the last three years his SwStr% have all been below average. Thornton likely won’t cost the Nationals anything to upgrade their lefty options in the pen, but he won’t move the needle much for the Nats or your fantasy team. As far as the Yankees are concerned, look for David Huff to see more higher leverage action against lefties. Huff has allowed only 5 ER in 23 innings for the Yankees this year and while he isn’t too fantasy relevant (AKA not at all) he is the primary left handed reliever for the Yankees moving forward.

• Quick Hits: No save situation but the Orioles went with Tommy Hunter and Andrew Miller in the seventh and eighth innings tonight, a trend that should continue in Baltimore. Francisco Rodriguez closed his 33rd door of the year. K-Rod’s had a fine year but he was actually quite terrible in July, posting a 6.48 ERA and .381 wOBA against. He’s earned enough leash where he will save games all year but I wouldn’t look to at his seasonal ERA and expect an ERA around or under 3.00 from here on out.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Addison Reed Brad Ziegler Oliver Perez
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Jordan Walden David Carpenter Shae Simmons
Baltimore Zach Britton Tommy Hunter Andrew Miller
Boston Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Edward Mujica
CHI (NL) Hector Rondon Pedro Strop Brian Schlitter Neil Ramirez
CHI (AL) Jacob Petricka Javy Guerra Ronald Belisario Matt Lindstom
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton Sam LeCure Sean Marshall
Cleveland Cody Allen Bryan Shaw John Axford
Colorado LaTroy Hawkins Adam Ottavino Rex Brothers
Detroit Joe Nathan Joakim Soria Joba Chamberlain Joel Hanrahan
Houston Chad Qualls Tony Sipp Josh Fields
KC Greg Holland Wade Davis Jason Frasor
LAA Huston Street Joe Smith Jason Grilli
LAD Kenley Jansen Brian Wilson Brandon League
Miami Steve Cishek Bryan Morris A.J. Ramos
Milwaukee Francisco Rodriguez Will Smith Brandon Kintzler Jim Henderson
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Casey Fien
NY (NL) Jenrry Mejia Jeurys Familia Vic Black Bobby Parnell
NY (AL) David Robertson Dellin Betances Adam Warren
Oakland Sean Doolittle Luke Gregerson Dan Otero
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Ken Giles Jake Diekman Mike Adams
Pittsburgh Mark Melancon Tony Watson Ernesto Frieri
St. Louis Trevor Rosenthal Pat Neshek Jason Motte
SD Joaquin Benoit Kevin Quackenbush Dale Thayer
SF Santiago Casilla Jeremy Affeldt Sergio Romo
Seattle Fernando Rodney Danny Farquhar Dominic Leone
TB Jake McGee Brad Boxberger Grant Balfour
Texas Neftali Feliz Neal Cotts Shawn Tolleson
Toronto Casey Janssen Aaron Loup Brett Cecil
Wash. Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


Closer Carousel Creates Holds Opportunity

It’s probably safe to say that the Tampa Rays and Anaheim Angels didn’t draw up their bullpen plans like this in March. Both teams have had numerous players close games — or rather, attempt to close games — since the beginning of the season. They’ve both had the dubious “closer by committee” approach. They’ve both tried reclamation projects and they’ve both tried some kids. But what falls out of focus is how this shifting impacts the arms trotted out there in the 7th and 8th innings for those of you in leagues which value the hold. And over the last month, there have been two very valuable late inning arms whom you may want to employ.

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Bullpen Report: July 29, 2014

• We talked about Neil Ramirez a bit last night, and although it seemed like he was just going to rest without any injury he was just put on the 15-day DL today. Ramirez has a sore right triceps muscle and he hopefully is back soon for the Cubs. The interesting piece in all of this is that the Cubs apparently really did just want Ramirez to rest but sending someone to the minors for that reason “could be viewed as an attempt to save on a major league salary.”

Neftali Feliz recorded a save late last night, his second of the season. The good news is that it looks like Feliz is taking the reigns on the closing gig in Texas. The bad news is all of our previous concerns about Feliz and his injury haven’t quite evaporated. Feliz made his bread throwing in the high 90s, but he was maxing out at 93 mph last night.  That’s enough to be a successful major league pitcher, and if he’s getting saves Feliz will have value but it goes without say that a lot of his shine has worn off, and anyone expecting Feliz to return to the Feliz when he first came on the seen will be disappointed.

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Bullpen Report: July 28, 2014

There have been a few updates since our last Bullpen Report so as a wise man once said, “Aw, here it goes!”

Neil Ramirez had been terrific as a setup option for the Cubs (0.96 ERA, 33 Ks in 28 IP) but he was sent down to AAA Iowa over the weekend. The move was clearly not performance related, and it’s unlikely that Ramirez is being stretched into a starter in the minors. Ramirez hasn’t shown any obvious signs of injury (although his velos have been up and down) and the Cubs would like to keep it that way, with Ramirez simply getting some rest. With Ramirez out of the fold temporarily, expect Pedro Strop to be the primary setup man behind Hector Rondon which played out tonight with Strop getting the last two outs of the eighth and Rondon finishing the game for his 13th save of the year.

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Bullpen Report: July 22, 2014

Casey Janssen struggled this evening and Brett Cecil came on for the one-out save, his fourth of the year. In spite of Janssen’s struggles in his last couple of outings, his job is still fully secure. Rather than have Janssen labor in a tough outing, taking him out earlier tonight might actually give him a chance to pitch in tomorrow’s game. I wouldn’t rush to pick up Cecil, but along with Aaron Loup he’s a primary setup man in Toronto’s pen.

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Bullpen Report: July 8, 2014

Aroldis Chapman allowed two baserunners but also struck two guys out en route to his 18th save of the year in game one against the Cubs today. Chapman’s ERA is higher than some of the other top tier relievers this year but he’s actually quietly having his best year yet. In 25.2 innings Chapman has 49 stirkeouts. His BB% (8.6) is the lowest it’s ever been since 2012 (8.3%) and his K% is an absurd 50.5 %. That’s right, Aroldis is now striking out over half of the batters he faces with an average fastball velocity of 100 mph. No joke.  Unsurprisingly his FIP and xFIP are tremendous at 0.85 and 1.04 respectively. Chapman doesn’t register ground balls at an elite rate, but with so few bats even making contact, even less makes great contact. There’s not much else to say here, we all know he’s among the league’s best, if not the best and ranks in the top three fantasy relievers at the worst.

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