As of this mid-February day, the Indians possess a coherent bullpen. They feature all the things you want from a relief corps – an elite fireman, lefty specialists, ground ball guys, and a long man with upside. There’s only one reason to worry. What happens if their best hurlers hit the disabled list?
This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.
The Marlins bullpen finished sixth in WAR among all big league teams last year, thanks to one of the most underrated closers in fantasy and a collection of effective setup men. Heading into 2015, owners looking to pick up both saves and holds should find reasonably priced options in Miami.
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This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.
The Rays bullpen is confusing. It’s not that they don’t have good arms there—they have plenty of them;it’s just not clear whether management will deploy these arms in any predictable way to start the 2015 season. Things are further complicated by the fact that incumbent closer Jake McGee had arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove “loose bodies” in mid-December and projects to miss most of April. (Though he might return sooner than originally expected.)
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The Brewers lost half of what was a decent bullpen to free agency (Francisco Rodriguez, Zach Duke, and Tom Gorzelanny) and trades (Marco Estrada) this offseason and would enter the 2015 season pretty thin as currently constituted. That makes Milwaukee a relief corps in flux for fantasy. K-Rod recorded 44 of the team’s 45 saves last season, and Duke earned 1.3 WAR in a dominant campaign that featured 11.4 strikeouts per nine, which placed him in the top 25 of relievers with at least 50 innings pitched last season. Duke is now a White Sox and cannot return, but K-Rod remains unsigned. His return would mute much of the intrigue that centers on a likely new old closer.
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Along with the xK% formula I devised and updated last year, I also developed an xBB% equation. Unfortunately, it isn’t as good as the expected strikeout rate formula, as our community has really struggled to determine how the various underlying skill metrics should interact to result in an expected walk rate. That said, my version is still the best I’ve seen, so it’s better than nothing. But there are seemingly consistent underperformers and overperformers, so don’t take a pitcher’s xBB% as gospel.
According to ERA and xFIP, the Mariners had the best bullpen in baseball last year, a fact that broadcaster Dave Sims was not shy in pointing out. With a pen full of gas cans — most of whom can pitch multiple innings if needed — opponents don’t get a chance to pick on a weak link in the late innings. Though they lost Brandon Maurer in a trade with the San Diego Padres, the Mariners bullpen should be in competition to retain their title in 2015.
The Closer: Fernando Rodney
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The Washington Nationals are arguably the most complete team in baseball. They do have one area where they look considerably less impressive than the others – the bullpen. None of Washington’s relievers project to be elite and only one youngster seems to have the components necessary for a breakout. While relief isn’t a strength for the Nationals, it isn’t a weakness either.
Pundits and projection systems don’t always agree. When they do, it often signals some underlying truth. Everybody, human and computer, expects the Philadelphia Phillies to be bad this season. Really, the only debate is the degree of awful. Will they be merely bad or downright terrible? With the doom and gloom, it’s easy to forget the Phillies project to be among the best in baseball in one regard – relief pitching.
Contributing to RotoGraphs’ Bullpen Reports last year brought me much joy: opening infinite Brooks Baseball player cards for sabermetric outcomes and watching glorious GIFs. Oh, Marcus Stroman’s Two-Seamer:
GIF: Marcus Stroman’s Two-Seam Fastball from last week’s outing. It may be our favorite of the year – http://t.co/vyJM8ltUir
— Pitcher List (@ThePitcherList) August 31, 2014
Mmm.
My last Bullpen Report from October looked at possible closers through outcomes and presented BABIP differentials (actual BABIP versus expected BABIP using Inside Edge data).
This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.
When rounding to one decimal place in WAR, the Royals and Yankees were tied for Best Bullpen of 2014. Both teams received dominant—historically dominant, even—breakout performances from set-up men. Both had excellent closers. The difference between the two teams going into 2015 is not so much one of quality, as both bullpens project to be among best in baseball again; rather, it’s a difference of roles. The Royals are returning all of their major relievers for 2015, with Greg Holland set to resume his role as closer. The Yankees, on the other hand, saw their 2014 closer leave via free agency, and brought in another excellent set-up man via the same method.