The Marlins Bullpen: Real Value in the Magic City

This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

The Marlins bullpen finished sixth in WAR among all big league teams last year, thanks to one of the most underrated closers in fantasy and a collection of effective setup men. Heading into 2015, owners looking to pick up both saves and holds should find reasonably priced options in Miami.

The closer
Steve Cishek / 28

At the risk of cribbing off Mike Podhorzer, I’d like to quote his take on Cishek from a year ago:

He doesn’t get the fanfare, but he’s as good as any other closer beyond the top tier.

One year later, that statement remains just as valid, even if the right-hander is coming off his best season yet in his three years as Miami’s closer. Cishek’s 39 saves established a career high, ditto for his 2 WAR, and he took a quantum leap forward in the punchout department, improving his K/9 from 2013 by two strikeouts.

Behind the strikeout spike was a decision by Cishek to essentially ditch his changeup and ramp up his slider usage, to the point where it accounted for nearly half of his offerings. Although his slider has never generated particularly high whiff rates, it’s been his most effective offering according to pitch values, with 2014 being its best season. Last year, he threw it at a slower velocity, probably so he could generate more horizontal movement on the pitch:

And although a decision by a sinker-slider right-hander to abandon his changeup might lead one to believe he’d be vulnerable against left-handed hitters, Cishek flat-out dominated them in 2014, as his 5.4 K/BB ratio and .586 OPS against them easily topped his career numbers.

It wasn’t a perfect season, however. While Cishek’s ERA underperformed his FIP, xFIP and SIERA thanks to a meh strand rate, he gave up line drives at a 26.2% clip, which caused his BABIP to blow past his previous career high by nearly 30 points. The blame can be assigned to his sinker, which was smacked around for a .320 average, perhaps due to some issues with location:

Fortunately, even as Cishek’s hits per nine innings rose, his 7.6% walk rate, the best of his career, kept his WHIP in check at 1.21. We can chalk that up, at least in part, to a surge in his F-Strike%, which itself benefited from a jump in Cishek’s share of called strikes. Whether Cishek can replicate those looking strikes remains to be seen — framing pitches is not Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s strong suit — but for what it’s worth, both Steamer and six fans believe that his strikeout rate will dip slightly.

But that shouldn’t be enough to dissuade owners from recognizing that Cishek has graduated from being a strong No. 2 closer to a legitimate No. 1 option. Currently being drafted 13th among relievers, he’s a good bet to outperform his cost on draft day.

The setup men
A.J. Ramos / 28
Bryan Morris / 28

• Ramos was absolutely sensational in his second full season, cutting down his ERA by a full run over 2013, striking out hitters at a nifty 10.3 K/9 pace and allowing just one home run in 64 innings pitched. More significantly, perhaps, is the improvements Ramos made against lefties, who had chewed him up in the past; the .522 OPS he allowed against them was actually lower than righties’ .555 mark. The strikeouts are legit, thanks in no small part to a changeup that’s generated a loopy 26.3% whiff rate over his 147 career appearances, but so are the control issues: no reliever with at least 60 innings matched Ramos’ 15.9% walk rate. He’s been successful in stranding runners in his career, so his 81.9% strand rate isn’t too screaming an outlier, but even as he calls Marlins Park home, he’s all but certain to see some regression in his HR/FB rate, which will bring last year’s 2.11 ERA closer in line to the 4.11 xFIP he was able to hide.

• A ground ball machine, Morris split 2014 between the Pirates and the Marlins, and could be the favorite to be Cishek’s primary setup man as 2015 gets underway. For a guy flashing mid-90s heat coming off a season in which he posted a 14% whiff rate, it’s too bad he owns a mediocre lifetime strikeout rate, though he did manage an 8 K/9 in his 39 appearances after coming over to Miami. He’s been very effective stranding runners in his career, which no doubt helped earn him the 1.82 ERA, even if his FIP, xFIP and SIERA believe it should have sat in the mid-three range.

The lefty
Mike Dunn / 29

• Dunn enjoyed the best season of his big league career in 2014, grabbing 10 wins while blowing away hitters with a 10.6 K/9 and maintaining an acceptable walk rate and ERA in 75 appearances. He was also effective against right-handed hitters as well, holding them to a .219 average. Although his current presence as the team’s only left-handed pitcher limits Dunn’s path to the closer’s role, he led the team with 22 holds last year and figures to have another prominent role for the team this year.

Middle relievers
Aaron Crow / 28
Carter Capps / 24

• Crow’s stock has fallen significantly since making the all-star team in 2011. Last year, his average fastball velocity plunged by two and a half miles, taking his SwStr% with it, and his GB/FB was squeezed to 1.14, easily the lowest of his career. It’s possible the Marlins, who traded for Crow over the offseason, might have some ideas on how to fix him, or simply figure he can be a spare part in a deep bullpen and bounce back in the National League, but either way, he doesn’t offer fantasy owners a whole lot until he turns things around.

• Fireballer Capps owns a career 25.6% strikeout rate, but a minor league assignment and an elbow injury helped limit him to just 20.1 innings last year. He did return to pitch in eight September games and looked fine, and his strikeout potential makes him an interesting candidate to pick up holds.