It’s been a while since you’ve heard from us and we apologize for that. For tonight, I’m going to first update you on changes in the grid since the last time we put something out. Then I will close out with an update on tonight’s slate.

Bruce Bochy announced he will remove Santiago Casilla as closer and go with a committee. He then used him with a one-run lead tonight in extra innings and he gave up a game-tying home-run to Jake Lamb. This makes the Giants closer job very volatile and although Will Smith is at the top of the grid, this does not mean he will get first shot at save opportunities. If you’re in a Holds/Save league, go for one of the three Giants on the grid. If it’s just Saves, be cautious when picking up these relievers who have no hold on the job just yet.
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Today’s MASH Report is being brought to you by Ryan Butcher and Wade Davis. The pair were given a few days off recently to get themselves back together. Butcher was sent to the minor and Davis to the DL. While both may have needed a break, one interesting note exists about them missing time, both pitchers experienced a drop in their fastball spin rate right before the decision was made

These are the first two times I have seen a major league team admit that a pitcher’s spin was used to decide on how they handle a pitcher. It has been known for a while that changes in spin rate can help detect injuries. Eno Sarris talked to FanGraphs friend, Kyle Boddy about this issue.

From that discovery flowed others. “Spin-rate changes are actually one of the best predictors of injury,” pointed out Boddy, a fact that was confirmed as a known within many parts of the baseball community by multiple sources. At Driveline, pitchers have their spin rates monitored constantly for the earliest signs of unhealthy fatigue.

The problem for the general public, we have not had good access to pitch spin data until StatCast began releasing data last year. Here is a detailed look at the two pitchers whose spin rate change cause their team to act and can we make any conclusion from them.

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The calendar has flipped to September, and in roto leagues, that means many gamers are rapidly approaching innings pitched limits for the season. If you’re up against the innings limit but in the mix to gain some points in the strikeout category, every inning and punch out is of the utmost importance. The good news for those gamers is that there are low-owned relievers who are capable of helping immensely. A quartet of relievers listed below are owned in under 5% of most leagues across the industry. Missing the cut were higher owned relievers such as Shawn Kelley, Jason Grilli and Hector Neris. That trio was owned in more than 10% of leagues across the three major fantasy baseball providers. Read the rest of this entry »

• Arodys Vizcaino has been sent back to the DL with shoulder inflammation and Shae Simmons has been recalled. Vizcaino was already moving back on the grid due to his performance and now he’s hurt again. Jim Johnson has been terrific of late with a 0.60 ERA since July 26th, throwing 15 innings with a 20/4 strikeout to walk ratio. everyone seemed to expect Vizcaino to reclaim the job, Johnson to start pitching poorly or for Johnson to be traded but that hasn’t happened and this situation is looking pretty green right now.

• The Diamondbacks ninth inning has been a bit of a mess of late but Dan Hudson locked down his second save of the year in spite of allowing an earned run. His ERA stands at a lovely 6.10 right now but he’s currently the closer and should continue to see save opportunities in the desert for now.

• Chasen Shreve recorded his first career save for the Yankees last night in extra innings. Dellin Betances threw two perfect innings but actually “blew” the save after he allowed Tyler Clippard’s inherited runner to score in the eighth.

• Andrew Miller and Cody Allen continue to seesaw with save opportunities with Miller getting his 12th save after getting the last five outs for Cleveland. Cody Allen threw a ton of pitches on Monday so he likely was unavailable and we will keep him as first in line in Cleveland, with recognition that it’s still a committee of two.

• Maybe we were a little quick to claim Edwin Diaz as the next best thing as he blew a save last night and has a 3.95 ERA since the month turned to August. However, in that time he still has 21 strikeouts in 13.2 innings pitched so the elite strikeouts are still there. On the year Diaz is supporting a 2.56/2.27/1.96 ERA/FIP/xFIP even with an inflated .400 BABIP. Plenty of reason to be excited but let’s keep watching in September to see if he’s still deserving of my earlier praise.

• Quick Hits: Another Orioles win and another scoreless frame for Zach Britton, notching his 39th save and lowering his ERA to 0.69. Mark Melancon saved his 37th game lowering his ERA to 1.30 on the season. Also, since 2013 across 274 innings, Melancon has a 1.74 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a 2.24 FIP. He’s the elite of the non-elite strikeout guys and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Alex Colome (29), Jeurys Familia (43),  Aroldis Chapman (31), Ken Giles (6) and Fernando Salas (6) all got saves as well.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Although we had a long weekend, there were no major news stories from the bullpen, so we’ll keep this short and sweet. A couple of middle relievers had some role changes and one big name could be coming back soon. Read the rest of this entry »

• We have Cody Allen in the first chair on the grid below but Andrew Miller secured the win for the Indians getting his 11th save on the year. Cody Allen was never expected to received every save opportunity so he will remain first but this situation is still red and it likely will stay that way for the rest of the season as a somewhat committee between the two. In more exciting news, Miller struck out the side and now has 93 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched, supporting a 44.5% strikeout rate which is only 0.3% behind league leader and former teammate, Dellin Betances. Miller is the more effective reliever but using him in higher leveraged situations is an effective strategy by the Indians.

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Sorry we missed you most of the weekend, but a lot has happened on the grid so let’s get you updated.

Enrique Burgos had an up and down weekend blowing a save in the 8th inning on Friday, but then earned his first save of the year on Saturday by striking out two and walking one. Jake Barrett and Steve Hathaway loaded the bases for Daniel Hudson in the 8th, who escaped the jam earning the Hold (16). Not a lot of stability in this situation right now, but the grid reflects Burgos as the closer with Hudson next in line for now.
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Pitch Velocity Effects on Groundballs, Exit Velocity, and Swinging Strikes

Last week, I examined Danny Duffy and several other writers have examined at him also. If you want to read up on various theories on my he is performing great and why that may change, go ahead. Instead, today I am going to concentrate on his fastball velocity changes and how the results change as the velocity changes.

Danny Duffy is starting to get some Cy Young consideration after spending part of the season in the bullpen. One cause for the turnaround is his fastball velocity increasing from 93.8 mph to 95 mph. The average velocity was even higher earlier in the season but it has been steadily dropping.

So what difference does it make if he is throwing 96 mph or 94 mph? Today, I am going to lay the groundwork for finding such an answer.

Simply, I looked at three different factors, exit (or batted ball) velocity (EV), groundball rate (GB%), and swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) and how each compared to a 1 mph velocity block. To help smooth out the results, I looked velocities between whole values like 90 mph to 91 mph and labeled them 90.5 mph. Also, I looked at values between 90.5 mph and 91.5 mph and put them in the 90 mph bin. I know there is overlap, but I hoped the higher number of samples would help smooth at the final results, especially with a limited number of samples at both ends of the data range.

To start off, here are Duffy’s average exit velocities for a given range of fastball velocities.

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• Andrew Miller threw two perfect frames Sunday but considering it was the seventh and eighth innings, I’m going to flip him and Cody Allen who saved the game (22) throwing a perfect inning of his own. It goes without say that Andrew Miller is still a must own and will continue to see save opportunities this season but Allen is deserving of the first spot on the grid at this time.

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Friday was busy for relievers as Jim Johnson (10), Dellin Betances (4), Will Harris (12), David Robertson (28), Brandon Maurer (5), Sam Dyson (26), Ryan Madson (25), Tony Watson (5), and Zach Britton (36) all shook hands and earned saves on Friday. Transactions started to build up on Saturday, along with some saves so let’s get to those. Read the rest of this entry »