• Let the trades begin! In case you haven’t heard the news, the Yankees and the White Sox conducted a trade with fairly significant bullpen implications. Travis Sawchik has a great post about the trade here but the White Sox are sending Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson and Todd Frazier to the Yankees with prospects Blake Rutherford, Tito Polo, Ian Clarkin and veteran arm Tyler Clippard moving to Chicago. With Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances already in store, it’s unlikely that Robertson or Kahnle see the ninth but they sure make for a formidable pen in New York.

If you were a Robertson owner hoping to see saves in Washington, I’m sorry. If you were a Kahnle owner licking your chops for Robertson to be moved, I’m sorry. Of more interest than the Yankees situation since Chapman and Betances already have the fort down is the current one in Chicago. I initially thought that Clippard would get the first shot but with a 4.95/4.97/4.82 pitching line and a contract into next year, it’s unlikely he will be able to prove enough as an interim closer to get anything of value in a trade. Anthony Swarzak however is a different case. He has been excellent with a 2.45/2.29/3.48 line and since he is a free agent next year, it’s likely the White Sox want to pump up his value. I expect him to get the first save chances and also expect him to be in trade rumors until the deadline. With all of that said, this situation is still red.

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It’s officially that time of year. A deal was struck between the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals on Sunday that sent relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in exchange for Blake Treinen and two prospects.

That the Nationals made a move for bullpen help doesn’t come as a surprise, but Doolittle and Madson weren’t necessarily the most obvious candidates. Now that the deal is done, the question is: who’s going to serve as closer for a Nationals bullpen that has struggled so mightily this season?

According to SB Nation’s Federal Baseball, Nationals manager Dusty Baker was non-committal:

“I’m not sure. I’ve got to talk to [A’s manager] Bob Melvin. Like I said, both of them have closed, I know both of them have had some arm problems in the past, so it could be both of them, you know what I mean, so we’ll see.”

Although Baker wouldn’t name an official closer, it would appear that the job will go to one of the two newly-acquired relievers from Oakland.

Doolittle is seven years younger than Madson, and he has the strikeout stuff more typical of a closer. He’s striking out nearly 40 percent of batters faced this season, and his career mark is north of 30 percent. He’s always been exceptional at limiting walks, too, as his 4.8 percent career walk rate indicates. He’s also managed to limit homers to the tune of a career 0.78 HR/9 despite being a fly ball pitcher.

When he’s healthy, Doolittle is an elite reliever, but arm injuries have limited him to just 64 innings since 2014. He has spent time on the disabled list this season with a strain in his throwing shoulder.

Madson, meanwhile, has pitched at least 60 innings in each of the last two seasons and already has 39.1 innings this season. This year, he’s featuring a career-high 27.1 percent strikeout rate, and he’s struck out 20.8 percent of batters he’s faced in his career. Like Doolittle, command has never been an issue, as his 7.0 percent career walk rate indicates. Perhaps most impressively, Madson hasn’t allowed a home run per nine innings or worse in any single season since 2006, when he was still a starting pitcher. His consistently excellent home run prevention is made possible by his sterling 48.4 percent career ground ball rate.

Since Doolittle is the more electric of the two, he will probably get the first shot at save opportunities. His recent arm issues and flyball tendencies, however, make him the riskier option. Should Doolittle falter, or if the Nationals decide to go the safer route from the start, Madson is a reasonable ninth-inning option who could do well if called upon. Stay tuned for updates on how this all shakes out.

On Saturday, Alex Claudio picked up his third save of the season for the Rangers. With a 1-0 lead in the ninth, right-hander Jose Leclerc walked the leadoff hitter Lorenzo Cain on four pitches, and so the lefty Claudio was summoned for Eric Hosmer. He struck out Hosmer, then got Salvador Perez to hit into a game-ending double play. On Sunday, Claudio pitched a scoreless bottom of the eighth in a tie game. Claudio has emerged as a possible closer for the Rangers, as Al Melchior pointed out on Friday. He doesn’t boast exceptional strikeout stuff, but he does have a terrific 63.5 percent career ground ball rate that allows him to limit homers and induce weak contact.

The Cardinals are going to a closer by committee, but it didn’t work in their or Brett Cecil’s favor on Sunday. Cecil blew a one-run lead as he allowed two runs on three hits and a walk against the Pirates, and it’s a full-blown red situation in St. Louis. Seung Hwan Oh has struggled all season, especially against lefties, who have a .447 wOBA against him, so Cecil was brought in to face a lefty-heavy part of the Pirates lineup and couldn’t get the job done. Anchored by a strikeout rate near 40 percent, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has the best peripherals in the Cardinals ‘pen, so he should get a consistent opportunity to close at some point in the near future. He’s the most desirable Cardinal to target for now. Despite Sunday’s failed opportunity, Cecil may also be worth an add for those in need of saves, as he’s clearly in the mix for save opportunities moving forward. Cecil boasts solid peripherals in his own right.

Other closer activity: Aroldis Chapman notched his ninth save of the season. Kenley Jansen picked up his 23rd save in 1.1 innings of work. He struck out three. Zach Britton pitched a scoreless inning with the Orioles down six runs. He allowed a hit and a walk. Ken Giles allowed a run on a hit and a walk but picked up his 20th save of the season. Hector Neris allowed a couple of bloop singles to open the ninth with a three-run lead, but he closed things out with a strikeout and two popups. It was his eighth save. Justin Wilson struck out one in a perfect ninth inning in a tie game at home. David Robertson also struck out one in a scoreless ninth inning in a tie game at home. Edwin Diaz needed just 12 pitches to strike out all three batters he faced against the White Sox in the 10th inning to pick up his 16th save of the season. Bud Norris escaped a bases-loaded, one-out situation with the tying run on third base. He allowed a run but notched his 14th save.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

At the midway point of the season, it’s always interesting to see how teams are utilizing their pitching staffs. I’ve been examining workloads through the metric I created, called Fatigue Units. This metric accounts for days between appearances, stress during pitching, and time between pitches – you can read more about it here. TLDR; Fatigue Units appear to be a more accurate indicator of “overworked” pitchers than pitches, or innings pitched.

To start off – what does the midway point indicate about a pitcher’s workload? It doesn’t necessarily indicate what the workload will be by season’s end, but it does say that the pitcher has worked hard in the first half. It definitely says that the team has trusted that pitcher, and, that pitcher is very good. Here’s what the halfway point workloads looked like in 2016.

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Another compelling day of bullpen activity around the major leagues as the unofficial first half of the season comes to a close…

One day after allowing two walks and a walk-off homer, All-Star closer Corey Knebel entered in the eighth inning with a two-run lead, two outs, and a runner on second. He walked Ji-Man Choi, but retired the next batter on a ground ball to short. In the ninth, Knebel walked Brett Gardner to open the inning, but then struck out Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Gary Sanchez to notch his 14th save and secure the first-place Brewers’ 50th victory. The strikeout of Judge marked Knebel’s 44th consecutive appearance with at least one strikeout, which is now just five shy of the major league record for a relief pitcher set by Aroldis Chapman in 2014. Knebel’s 43 consecutive appearances with at least one strikeout to open the season is already the single-season record and the most ever to begin a year.

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• Rough night for Craig Kimbrel as he only struck out one in a perfect inning for his 21st save. I’m a bit late to the game but I watched Fastball this weekend on Netflix which featured Craig Kimbrel and his heater quite a bit. While he was on the Braves when the film came out, he’s throwing even harder now (98.2 average mph on his fastball) and maybe even pitching better than ever, which says a lot. In 33.2 innings pitched this year, Kimbrel has 61 strikeouts against only five walks leading to a 1.07/0.43/1.12 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. If you’re wondering if maybe SIERA is picking up something FIP is missing, well that’s at a cool 0.94. Kimbrel has broken advanced pitching metrics this year, again.

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Following up on Friday’s Bullpen Report in which we reported that Roberto Osuna was unavailable due to illness, it turns out that it was mental illness. Arden Zwelling of Sportnet passed along the following comments from the Blue Jays closer:

I don’t really know how to explain it. I just feel anxious. I feel like I’m lost a little bit right now. This has nothing to do with me being on the field. I feel great out there. It’s just when I’m out of baseball. When I’m not on the field, I feel just weird and a little bit lost.

Needless to say, Osuna’s mental health should be everyone’s top priority. It was encouraging that he pitched the ninth inning on Sunday with an 8-2 lead. He allowed a two-out single but struck out the side.

Despite the appearance on Sunday, Osuna’s status as the team’s full-time closer remains in doubt for the time being while he works through his personal issues. Ryan Tepera is next in line for saves if Osuna needs to miss additional time.

Matt Bush, who was saddled with a blown save and a loss on Friday, closed out a one-run win over the Yankees on Sunday. With a blazing fastball, he breezed through the first two outs before Aaron Judge singled, and the inning culminated in a battle with Gary Sanchez, who had homered earlier in the game. Despite the drama, Bush struck out Sanchez on a sharp slider off the plate, giving him his ninth save of the season. Things haven’t been easy for Bush as of late: he currently has a troubling 4.55 FIP and 4.34 xFIP. However, Bush has the stuff to be at least an adequate closer, and the projections back that up. Recent struggles aside, Bush still seems to have a grasp on the closer’s role, although Keone Kela is lurking behind him.

Yusmeiro Petit picked up a two-inning save against the Red Sox. The Angels bullpen in general is going through significant change right now, with Bud Norris recently landing on the disabled list and Cam Bedrosian and Huston Street recently returning from injury. Bedrosian looks like the closer moving forward, at least until Norris returns, and Petit probably received the save chance on Sunday because Bedrosian had thrown 30 pitches the previous day. In that 30-pitch outing, Bedrosian allowed two runs on two hits, two walks, and a wild pitch.

Santiago Casilla allowed a home run and a single but picked up his 13th save against the White Sox. Casilla has been shaky all season, and Sunday was no exception. He now has a 4.28 ERA/4.20 FIP/4.75 xFIP in 27.1 innings. On his heels, Sean Doolittle has been outstanding as of late. Doolittle has 22 strikeouts and has allowed just one walk and two homers in 13.2 innings. True, the sample size is minuscule, but Doolittle’s 1.98 ERA/2.04 FIP/1.85 xFIP looks so much better than what Casilla has done this season. If Doolittle can prove that he’s healthy and reliable, it’s conceivable that a change in the pecking order could take place at some point this season.

Alex Colome pitched the top of the ninth in a tie game, and he allowed three runs on two hits, two intentional walks, and a hit batsman. As has been mentioned multiple times in the Bullpen Report this year, Colome’s strikeout rate has fallen back down to earth after he put up impressive numbers in that category last season. But for the most part, he still gets the job done. Despite the 4.40 xFIP this season, he has just a 3.15 ERA and 3.17 FIP, and that same trend (beating his xFIP) has held true throughout his major league career. The projections forecast good things moving forward from Colome as well, so today’s outing looks like just a rare bad one for Colome.

Joe Kelly extended his scoreless streak to 21 consecutive outings dating back to May 1. In that 18.1 inning span, Kelly has a 26.8 percent strikeout rate and 55.6 percent ground ball rate. He’s picked up holds in three of his last four appearances and has nine on the season. Overall, Kelly boasts a 1.10 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.98 xFIP in 32.2 innings this season, but his strikeout rate is projected to increase (it’s just 18.5 percent on the year), and he could be on his way to a sustained and prominent role in the Red Sox ‘pen. He’s bumping Heath Hembree, who has just one hold since May 26, off the grid for now.

Other closer activity: A.J. Ramos picked up a four-out save (12). Brandon Kintzler pitched a perfect ninth in a non-save situation. Brach Brach pitched a scoreless eighth and ninth and was rewarded with a win. Craig Kimbrel allowed a run on two hits and a strikeout in a non-save situation. Raisel Iglesias pitched 1.2 innings to finish off the Nationals in a non-save situation. Fernando Rodney pitched a scoreless top of the ninth in a tie game. He struck out one and walked a batter. Brandon Maurer pitched the top of the ninth in a tie game and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk. He has a 6.53 ERA and a 3.86 xFIP. Justin Wilson struck out two in a perfect ninth to notch his sixth save of the season. Kenley Jansen entered with a one-run lead with one out in the eighth, and he ultimately finished off the Rockies in the ninth with a six-run lead. Jansen added to the offensive explosion in the bottom of the eighth with an RBI double off Greg Holland.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

In-season Saves hunting is a long standing fantasy baseball tradition. It can lead to the promised land (Felipe Rivero) or to hours of frustration (the Nationals). To help with finding volatile closer situations, I created a metric to help find relievers on the ‘Hot Seat’. While it is far from perfect, it does show some promise in finding struggling relievers.

First off, this Hot Seat metric is not close to being a replacement for our Bullpen Report. It doesn’t take into account different levels of team fickleness, injuries, velocity drops, setup options, and many other contextual contributions. It just looks back at pitcher performance. It might not even show any relievers who are really struggling but it may give a desperate owner a list of closers who may be on the outs after a couple more Blown Saves.

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• Bud Norris was placed on the DL with knee inflammation and he’s been replaced on the grid somewhat by Cam Bedrosian. Bedrosian threw a scoreless frame on Saturday and also threw a perfect seventh this evening getting the Hold against the Yankees. There was no save situation but David Hernandez pitched in the ninth with Keynan Middleton also seeing some high leverage innings throwing a perfect eighth. It’s tough to gauge where the saves lie currently in Anaheim but I’m going to put Cam in the closer’s chair as he’s their best currently healthy reliever (when he’s healthy). I’d partially consider this a platoon of sorts until it gets sorted out which won’t get any less confusing as Huston Street is set to return at some point this week. I could see Street leapfrogging the competition if they do poorly but given his lack of success and health concerns of his own in recent years I think Street will be eased into the bullpen.

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• The biggest news of the day is that Andrew Miller and Cody Allen have switched roles, for now. Terry Francona suggested that he was throwing Andrew Miller too much and the change in roles should remain “for the time being.” How long that is, nobody is really sure but since it’s not a matter of performance I don’t think the change will last too long. This situation remains green as it’s definitely Andrew Miller’s job but it just may not remain that way for all that much time.

Now is as good a time as any to brag about Andrew Miller this season. In 35.2 innings he has a 1.51/1.92/2.70 ERA/FIP/xFIP with a 2.16 SIERA and 51 strikeouts against just eight walks. Miller will see fewer innings but the increase in saves will certainly only help his value, in a save focused league of course. Allen has been great as well but he’s more the generally great reliever with a 2.00/2.57/3.86 pitching line and not the top tier that Miller is. Allen’s value will fall a bit pitching in the eighth but he also might see an uptick in his overall usage, helping those ratios and strikeout totals. This might end up being more noise than anything else but adjust your saves projections accordingly.

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A special Father’s Day edition of the Bullpen Report, with a tip of the hat to all the baseball-loving dads out there. It was a busy Sunday for bullpen activity across the major leagues…

Mark Melancon entered the ninth with a two-run lead and blew his fourth save of the season in 14 chances. Melancon missed time earlier this year with a pronator strain in his right forearm, and apparently it’s a lingering issue. The loss dropped the Giants to 26-45 and 19.5 games back in the National League West. Since the Giants are probably just about ready to throw in the towel on 2017, Melancon will probably land on the disabled list before too long if he really is injured. He’s already blown as many saves and allowed as many home runs in 17.2 innings this year as he did in 71.1 innings last year. Hunter Strickland is probably next in line for saves in San Francisco should Melancon miss time, with Derek Law also a possibility, but it’s worth noting that Major League Baseball still hasn’t ruled on Strickland’s suspension appeal for his involvement in the incident with Bryce Harper late last month. A ruling (and subsequent suspension) should be forthcoming for Strickland.

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