A computer program and I are back for some more abuse. After lining up the Steamer hitter projections with the Standings Gain Points (SGP) for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, the pitchers now take center stage. And boy can I see some conflicts to fill the comments.
The SGP formula is from the average of the 13, 15-team Roto leagues and will soon be available in The Process (looks like Monday at the latest).
A while back, I ranked hitters if all their 2018 stats were prorated to 600 plate appearances. It’s now time for the pitchers. In all fairness, the rankings are a huge disappointment with no surprises coming through.
I adjusted the rankings for 180 innings for starters and 60 innings for relievers and no one seemed out of place. With the hitters, Raul Mondesi at the top was an attention-getter. Looking over both sets of top-25 pitchers, the biggest surprise was Joshua James and he’s not really a surprise since he dominated at the season’s end. Time to get bored.
Two seasons ago, I examined the chances the season’s initial closer made it the entire season without being replaced for any reason including injury. I went back and revisited the study and updated it with 2017 and 2018 results. While the initially calculated chances were low, the odds are getting even worse.
I posted to Twitter account my initial results for the last two seasons to make sure nothing was too far off. Thanks to everyone for the responses and here are the end results:
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The 25-year-old lefty should have been on several 2017 pre-season sleeper lists but almost everyone missed on him. He was basically a late-round “Why not?” I could see why owners wrote him off with a 4.85 ERA in 20107’s first half. even though he posted a 3.49 ERA in the second half. More importantly, his strikeouts and velocity were trending up and walks were heading down as the season went on.
His K%-BB% climbed from 5% to 16% which put him on par with Jon Lester or Gerrit Cole. Instead, his 196 ADP placed him near Aaron Sanchez, Danny Duffy, and Kevin Gausman.
Snell kept the gains from 2017 with an 18 K%-BB% for the season’s first half. Then, he improved throughout the 2018 season with his velocity climbing pushing his K%-BB% up to 31%.
As a fantasy community, we liked Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel a lot more than all of the other projected closers on draft day this year. Jansen and Kimbrel lapped the field of relievers in Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater) in 2017, and owners typically rewarded them with one of the first 50 overall picks. Aroldis Chapman, Corey Knebel and the most popular of the remaining relievers had to wait a bit longer to get their names called (or clicked on).
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10/4/18
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Playoff Pitching X-Factors
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Touring the league to highlight a pitcher per team whose efforts could’ve slipped past your radar.
Check out the hitters here.
Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS | 3.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 18% K-BB
The bottom half injuries continue to plague him, but the skills are still there when he is healthy and upright.
J.A. Happ, NYY | 3.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 26% K
This strong effort will help the 35-year old southpaw get a solid multi-year deal this winter.
• There aren’t many big closer changes this far into the season but it looks like the Braves are going to go with Arodys Vizcaino as the primary closer moving forward in Atlanta. With Vizcaino returning from injury and the calendar already pushing October, I figured the Braves wouldn’t make a full change like this, but Vizcaino has pitched quite well and the committee is now over. With Vizcaino in the top chair, look for A.J. Minter, Chad Sobotka to be the primary set up men with Brad Brach, Dan Winkler and others behind them.
• Earlier in the year, Trevor Hildenberger looked like a sneaky future saves option in Minnesota. While he’s reached the promised land of the 9th, he hasn’t been a particularly good option and after last night’s 4 run blow up, Hildenberger now supports a 5.25 ERA, 4.53 FIP, and more promising 3.68 SIERA. Paul Molitor will now move to a committee with the bullpen and we expect Taylor Rogers or Trevor May to receive the next save opportunity. It’s possible Hildenberger gets another opportunity before the season is over, and we don’t know what 2019 will bring, but Rogers (2.73 ERA/2.35 FIP) and May (3.43 ERA/3.41 FIP) have been better and will likely lead the committee in the last week.
• Jace Fry is slated to start a bullpen game for the White Sox which doesn’t necessarily take him out of the committee in Chicago as he’s not likely to throw more than an inning or two, but it does take him out of a potential save today. If you have him in your daily lineup for saves, I suggest you replace him with someone else today.
• Even though Mike Scioscia is stepping down as the Angles manager, he still finds time in the last week to make some last minute bullpen changes. Ty Buttrey had blown his last two save opportunities and last night Scioscia called on Hansel Robles for the save with Blake Parker pitching in the 8th. Buttrey could have been unavailable having pitched in two of the last three games so we won’t make a change to the grid as he’s likely given a longer leash with “closer of the future” potential for the Angels. By keeping Parker in the 8th, the Angels could also be dictating this is the order moving forward, with Buttrey just getting a day off and Robles coming in to not upset the order. However, with all of that said, if Buttrey blows a third opportunity in a row, the Angels may not look to go back to him for the 9th in the season’s last days, even if he enters 2019 as the leading saves candidate.
• Due to Brad Boxberger’s recent struggles, the Diamondbacks are going to the most hated word in fantasy baseball – a committee, with Boxberger out. While it’s possible that Boxberger can string together a solid run and get back into the mix, we are going to take him off of the grid for now. In his place I would expect a combination of Andrew Chafin, Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano, Jake Diekman, and Brad Ziegler to see the ninth. It’s not that helpful to list off 5 names in a committee but that’s why it’s such a pain in our butts. Archie Bradley was always the presumptive favorite but he’s been terrible of late and unless the Diamondbacks want to give him a chance to prove himself in the middle of a playoff race, I’d expect them to mix and match with the other guys. For the first stab I’m putting Hirano, Diekman and Chafin on the list. Hirano is a righty so I’m guessing he could see more than the rest of the committee but with multiple lefty options in Diekman and Chafin it’s possible they see more saves, along with Brad Ziegler who just won’t go away!
Hoping that everyone had a lovely Labor Day, here’s what went on with the bullpens on Monday…
• Bud Norris is currently struggling and although Jordan Hicks hasn’t been lights out, Norris may not be receiving consistent saves. I don’t want to overdo the alarm but Norris had a very poor Labor Day Weekend. On SAturday Norris received the L giving up 3 earned and 4 baserunners and yesterday he blew the save giving up 2 earned runs and allowing 4 baserunners while only getting two outs in the 9th. On the year, Norris’ 3.86 FIP and 3.02 SIERA look good enough but with the Cardinals in a playoff race, he might not be their current best option. Additionally, with Norris on a one-year contract in St. Louis they aren’t beholden to him for future years. Cardinals manager Mike Shildt didn’t give Norris a resounding vote of confidence, and I would bet that Jordan Hicks or a make-shift committee will see the next save opportunity in St. Louis. Without word from Shildt, we will keep Norris on top here, but note he is very red, with Hicks and Daniel Hudson currently behind him.