Fantasy Pitchers Ranked Using Steamer Projections
A computer program and I are back for some more abuse. After lining up the Steamer hitter projections with the Standings Gain Points (SGP) for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, the pitchers now take center stage. And boy can I see some conflicts to fill the comments.
The SGP formula is from the average of the 13, 15-team Roto leagues and will soon be available in The Process (looks like Monday at the latest).
For the pitchers, here are the top-35 as I wanted to include a few closers. The full list is available here and I have a few comments at the end.
| Rank | Name | Age | GS | G | IP | W | SV | WHIP | ERA | SO | SGP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Sale | 30 | 32 | 32 | 202 | 17 | 0 | 0.97 | 2.75 | 275 | 32.6 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 34 | 32 | 32 | 208 | 15 | 0 | 1.03 | 3.12 | 272 | 29.8 |
| 3 | Jacob deGrom | 31 | 32 | 32 | 208 | 14 | 0 | 1.07 | 2.95 | 253 | 28.0 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | 36 | 32 | 32 | 202 | 15 | 0 | 1.07 | 3.36 | 251 | 27.0 |
| 5 | Corey Kluber | 33 | 32 | 32 | 209 | 15 | 0 | 1.12 | 3.46 | 221 | 24.2 |
| 6 | Gerrit Cole | 28 | 32 | 32 | 196 | 14 | 0 | 1.13 | 3.47 | 235 | 24.2 |
| 7 | Luis Severino | 25 | 32 | 32 | 196 | 15 | 0 | 1.15 | 3.47 | 221 | 23.5 |
| 8 | Blake Snell | 26 | 32 | 32 | 189 | 13 | 0 | 1.19 | 3.23 | 232 | 23.3 |
| 9 | Carlos Carrasco | 32 | 32 | 32 | 197 | 14 | 0 | 1.13 | 3.40 | 215 | 23.2 |
| 10 | James Paxton | 30 | 31 | 31 | 185 | 13 | 0 | 1.13 | 3.25 | 214 | 23.0 |
| 11 | Trevor Bauer | 28 | 32 | 32 | 193 | 14 | 0 | 1.20 | 3.55 | 218 | 22.0 |
| 12 | Clayton Kershaw | 31 | 29 | 29 | 185 | 13 | 0 | 1.12 | 3.25 | 181 | 20.7 |
| 13 | Aaron Nola | 26 | 31 | 31 | 194 | 12 | 0 | 1.20 | 3.59 | 210 | 20.7 |
| 14 | Robbie Ray | 27 | 31 | 31 | 176 | 12 | 0 | 1.27 | 3.68 | 222 | 20.2 |
| 15 | Patrick Corbin | 29 | 32 | 32 | 195 | 13 | 0 | 1.22 | 3.58 | 199 | 19.9 |
| 16 | Walker Buehler | 24 | 28 | 28 | 163 | 12 | 0 | 1.18 | 3.29 | 186 | 19.7 |
| 17 | Chris Archer | 30 | 32 | 32 | 191 | 12 | 0 | 1.23 | 3.64 | 204 | 19.6 |
| 18 | German Marquez | 24 | 32 | 32 | 190 | 13 | 0 | 1.24 | 3.88 | 207 | 19.4 |
| 19 | Stephen Strasburg | 30 | 29 | 29 | 177 | 12 | 0 | 1.19 | 3.65 | 192 | 19.2 |
| 20 | Noah Syndergaard | 26 | 29 | 29 | 176 | 11 | 0 | 1.18 | 3.55 | 183 | 18.6 |
| 21 | David Price | 33 | 32 | 32 | 194 | 14 | 0 | 1.23 | 3.93 | 188 | 18.6 |
| 22 | Zack Greinke | 35 | 32 | 32 | 201 | 12 | 0 | 1.22 | 3.84 | 189 | 18.1 |
| 23 | Mike Foltynewicz | 27 | 32 | 32 | 192 | 12 | 0 | 1.28 | 4.00 | 202 | 18.1 |
| 24 | J.A. Happ | 36 | 32 | 32 | 184 | 12 | 0 | 1.23 | 3.83 | 188 | 18.0 |
| 25 | Charlie Morton | 35 | 29 | 29 | 165 | 11 | 0 | 1.24 | 3.51 | 184 | 17.9 |
| 26 | Rich Hill | 39 | 28 | 28 | 159 | 11 | 0 | 1.18 | 3.62 | 176 | 17.8 |
| 27 | Edwin Diaz | 25 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 4 | 34 | 1.02 | 2.63 | 94 | 17.8 |
| 28 | Jack Flaherty | 23 | 29 | 29 | 164 | 11 | 0 | 1.24 | 3.69 | 180 | 17.3 |
| 29 | Madison Bumgarner | 29 | 32 | 32 | 203 | 11 | 0 | 1.24 | 3.92 | 183 | 16.9 |
| 30 | Masahiro Tanaka | 30 | 29 | 29 | 175 | 12 | 0 | 1.20 | 3.94 | 170 | 16.9 |
| 31 | Jameson Taillon | 27 | 32 | 32 | 190 | 12 | 0 | 1.26 | 3.90 | 179 | 16.8 |
| 32 | Kenley Jansen | 31 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 4 | 38 | 1.06 | 3.34 | 78 | 16.7 |
| 33 | Aroldis Chapman | 31 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 4 | 31 | 1.12 | 2.77 | 97 | 16.7 |
| 34 | Jose Quintana | 30 | 32 | 32 | 186 | 13 | 0 | 1.29 | 3.89 | 176 | 16.7 |
| 35 | Andrew Heaney | 28 | 29 | 29 | 178 | 12 | 0 | 1.22 | 3.96 | 171 | 16.7 |
- One of the biggest items to notice is the drop from the top-4 to the next tier Here is a visual of the top-135 pitchers (number drafted in a 15-team league).
Thoughts
● The top-4 are on the island by themselves. The drop from Chris Sale (#1) to Corey Kluber (#5) would be 8.3 spots on the standings if their projections stand. With the hitters, the drop from #1 Mike Trout to #5 J.D. Martinez was 4.6. If owners prioritize one the top pitchers, I don’t fault them.
After the first 35 or so pitchers, the curve turns into a straight line. The rank and SGP correlates almost perfectly with an r-squared of .99. I need to decide how I want to prioritize getting the top arms and then value pick from then on.
● The two pitchers who standout are Robbie Ray and Chris Archer. Both will get there strikeouts but the ERA’s under 3.75 are red flags. With Archer, I’m going to give him a 0.50 ERA boost because he just gets hit around with his two-pitch mix.
I gave a quick look at Ray’s stats and I’ll have to create a personal projection. He missed 2 months with an oblique injury which cost him some velocity. After skimming over his profile, I may move him up.
● For owners who like closers, Edwin Diaz at #27 isn’t bad even though I’d wait to pick my first one.
● I have a feeling German Marquez is going to be a divisive pitcher for those who think the 3.88 ERA can stick and those who don’t.
● Rich Hill throwing 159 innings. Nice joke.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Your visual says Blob instead of Glob
It goes by many names.
Good stuff.
Rich Hill not the only IP projection here that I’d personally adjust downward. I’ll take the under on James Paxton at 185 IP, for one.
Maybe it’s not enough to matter much – 10th to 13th in the above framework – but I often find it useful to think of pitchers in a ‘value per inning’ framework and go from there.
IE, the idea that Buehler and Corbin are ~tied in SGP really just reflects a confidence that the latter will pitch 20% more. [Which also means it’s obviously heavily dependent on league size/replacement level].
Blob Globlaw’s Blobblog.
Ive noticed this for a few years now, theres a set of elite pitchers then everyone else.
If you dont get 1 or 2 of the elite set, you may as well spend the minimum on starters cause guys on waiver are likely to be just as good as the guy you pay $15 for at auction.
Treinen all the way down at 75 kinda shocked me. I know his HR/FB% wasn’t sustainable last year but even with some regression I figured he’d slot higher than that, and certainly higher than some other guys.
His Saves got split up. Should be higher
Heaney as a top 30 SP is somewhat of a surprise for me. Does he merit discussion or are we well into the glob at this point?
I’ll dive in at some point. I’m still going through rankings to find players to dive in on.
Archer always seems to be dismissed on this site as a two-pitch guy who can’t match his peripherals, which leads to a number of questions:
1. How is it that he’s hittable except when he’s striking people out? The idea that hitters can’t make contact with his stuff, but when they do they hit it well doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.
2. Didn’t he have the same two-pitch mix when he beat out his FIP and xFIP in 2013-14 or when he was close in 2015-16? And I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention he had acceptable BABIPs until 2017.
The issue with Archer is that once ahead in the count, his slider dominates and he can get the K. If behind he has to come back with his fastball for a strike and it gets crushed.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=archech01&year=Career&t=p#count::1
When behind in the count, he has allowed a .996 OPS in his career which is 95% above the league average for pitchers behind.
If ahead, he allows a .475 OPS which is 61% better than the league average.
Very well stated and useful info
I love the SGP vs. Rank chart!
I make something similar each year to plan draft strategy. It looks similar. The categories my league uses are a little different than the standard, so for 2017 there was maybe only 15 to 20 pitchers (SP & RP) before the start of what I consider to be the blob.
For the last couple of years, it has been 20 pitchers before the gblob. It’s a few more this year.
Is Mike Clevinger omitted from here by mistake? It would seem that he should be in this group
If you click on the link to the Google Sheet with the full list, Clevinger is 37th
Ah thanks, didn’t see that
marquez was pretty awesome in the second half…
is he just a monster
or is he having his ubaldo jimenez moment?
I figure between now and the start of the season there’s going to be more write-ups about Marquez than any other player.
*Edit: That really should be “between the end of last season and the start of this season”. There’s been quite a few things written about him already.
In the full spreadsheet, how does Kimbrel end up below Shane Greene? Something seems fishy here…
kimbrel’s projected for zero saves, that probably doesn’t help. just free agent uncertainty, pay it no mind