Introduction

I made the following controversial proclamation earlier this year – that Chris Archer is highly overvalued by fantasy owners. I go even further to say that in all but deep mixed leagues and mono leagues – continually rostering the right hander would be a poor use of fantasy resources.

My contention with Archer’s value stems from his ratio stats:

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• Blake Treinen allowed three hits and blew his second save of the year but only allowed one earned run, struck out a pair, and received the win when the A’s scored off of A.J. Cole in the 9th inning. Treinen has previously been dealing with some elbow issues and his velo was a seasonal low of 96.83 mph during his appearance on April 28th but since then he’s been at his normal 98+. Treinen was never going to duplicate last year’s 0.78 ERA across 80.1 innings pitched but it looks as though the elbow flare up wasn’t a major red flag and he should remain a top closer moving forward.

• Jacob deGrom threw seven innings and the Mets went Seth Lugo -> Edwin Diaz for the 8th and 9th innings, just like the grid below. The Mets have insisted that Diaz will only go one inning per appearance which might help kepe him healthier all year but hurts his value a tad since his innings and raw totals won’t be the same as years past. With all that said, Diaz still might be the best closer in the fantasy game.

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• As Al mentioned yesterday, the Rangers were sticking with a committee of Chris Marin and Shawn Kelley as Leclerc continues to work on his craft. However, the Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin closing tandem is now over for the moment, with Kelley hitting the IL with an infection. This likely helps explain why Chris Martin was used for the previous save as well but with Kelley out for the time being the committee is closed with Martin owning the 9th. The other options in the Rangers bullpen aren’t too compelling so Jose Leclerc will remain on the grid and I have added Airel Jurado to the mix behind him as he has been effective so far in his six appearances maintaining a 0.00 ERA and a compelling 21.4% K-BB%. As far as Leclerc goes, he was used last night and was completely wild, walking three batters without finishing the 9th inning. It wasn’t a save situation but still, after a couple of decent appearances it wasn’t a great sign to see Leclerc struggle again. The Rangers want Leclerc to take back the reins but on the year he has a 181.% BB% and a career low 8.3% SwStr%. His velocity is right where he always is but the whiffs are missing and so is his control. It might not take too many solid appearances for Leclerc to get back into the closer’s chair, but he’s not close at the moment.

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• Shawn Kelley received the first save opportunity since Leclerc was removed from closer, and he it was a success with Kelley throwing a scorless inning for his 2nd save of the year. Chris Martin pitched a scoreless 8th and our old friend Leclerc was used in the 7th and looked pretty effective, stirking out a pair in a perfect inning. One successful inning won’t put Leclerc back as the closer but the fact he’s still pitching in higher leverage innings and in the very short term, is looking better, bodes well for him taking back the 9th at some point. In the meantime, the Rangers are still saying this is a committee but I would continue to bet on Kelley as the main provider of saves while Leclerc works his way back. Read the rest of this entry »

After taking last week off, I’m back to make a brief examination of some pitchers who worry me with their declining velocity. There is no good news today. It’s just some pitchers who could be headed for a demotion or the IL.

Some quick housekeeping. The entire list of pitchers and their fastball changes are available on this spreadsheet. With more data available, I examined at the past two weeks of data for the in-season information. Finally, an injury value of -100 is bad and +100 is good.

Note: Sorry for the short article but real life got in the way and I want to make sure I have time to go through the AL lineups tomorrow.

Carlos Rodon
2018 FBv: 93.0
2019 FBv: 91.5
Last two week: 90.6

Note: This was written before he went on the DL

The 26-year-old seemed to have finally righted the boat after dealing with injuries and wildness for several seasons. In his first five starts this season, he had a 2.89 ERA and 11.3 K/9 (huge jump over 8.8 K/9 career value). Two blowup starts came against offensive powerhouses Detroit and Baltimore and now he has a 5.19 ERA fueled by a 4.4 BB/9.
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• As Al mentioned last night Jose Leclerc is getting a breather from the closer’s role and we expect Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin to fill in for saves as Leclerc is used in lower leverage situations. I have changed the grid to include Kelley and Martin in a committee with Kelley ahead at the moment although we will have to wait for the next save chance to see which direction the Rangers go. Shawn Kelley has been better this year and has saved games in the past so that’s why he’s ahead for the time being. The Rangers signed Leclerc to an extension this offseason and they gave him a long leash through his struggles this year, so they’re not going to give up on him but until he finds his rhythm again, he won’t be seeing saves.

• Ty Buttrey got his first save with the Angels this year, pitching a scoreless two innings allowing two hits and striking out a pair as well. Cam Bedrosian threw a scoreless 7th inning for his third hold of the year and committee chair Hansel Robles wasn’t used. Buttrey and Robles will continue to see saves with Cody Allen out and even when he returns as they are definitively better pitchers. However, guessing who gets more saves here is a little tough. Although Robles has been great in his own right this year, Buttrey is the best option but as we have seen in Boston with Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier, sometimes it’s the second best option that gets the saves. Both are obviously worth owning and only time will tell if this stays as a committee for a while or if it will go in a single direction.

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• After giving up a home run and a couple of runs in his previous appearance, Hector Neris was called on for the save last night and pitched around a base hit for his 4th save, striking out a pair in the process. Hector Neris will likely always struggle more with the long ball than one would want for high leverage situations, but he’s also been quite effective this year. In 12.1 innings this year, Neris has a 2.92/3.13/2.57 ERA/FIP/xFIP along with a 2.16 SIERA and a 19/3 k/bb. Although I’m sure other relievers will see some saves, especially with Robertson still out, I’m going to remove the committee tag here as it feels like he’s taking ownership of the role. Truth be told, this has as much to do with the warts of the other options in the pen as much as it has to do with Neris’ success as Pat Neshek is used more situationally, Adam Morgan is a lefty, and Seranthony Dominguez hasn’t been effective early this season. Another name to still look out for is Victor Arano who is still on the IL, but if captures some of the magic he was showing earlier he could be a useful piece for ratios and strikeouts whether or not saves are in the picture.

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• The biggest news among the bullpens is that Cody Allen has been removed from the closer’s chair. In his last 5 appearances, Allen has allowed 5 runs with a 6/3 k/bb in 3.1 innings. It’s possible that Allen rights the ship and moves into the 9th again but for now he is out. In his place will be a committee to start but the thought is that Ty Buttrey would be in the lead with Hansel Robles, Cam Bedrosian, Luis Garcia and others behind.

Ty Buttrey is thought of as the closer in waiting and although he blew the lead last night, he was going for a three-inning save, and ended with 2.2 IP, three strikeouts, two baserunners and one run allowed, hard to fault him too much for the performance. Also in the mix is Hanel Robles who has been very good to start the year with a 3.02/2.26/3.90 line and 16/3 k/bb in 11.2 innings.

Luis Garcia has pitched more higher leverage innings than Cam Bedrosian (who actually started last night) but Garcia has more walks than innings pitched and I wouldn’t feel confident owning him. Bedrosian, Noe Ramirez, and Justin Anderson could be featured as well but the bet is Buttrey and Robles. With Buttrey throwing multiple innings last night, he might have a few days off with Robles seeing the next opportunity but we still have Buttrey in the lead.

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Welcome to the closer speculation edition of the deep league waiver wire! We all hate paying for saves on draft day, which often results in having to chase them all season song, which also fuels hatred. So the best option is to speculate on potential closers during the season, buying current middle relievers cheaply in the hopes that they see some save opps in a couple of weeks.

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Apologies on a belated and brief Bullpen Report but let’s get to the main takeaways from yesterday and a tad from today…

• It wasn’t so long ago that it felt like Blake Parker was making Minnesota a non-committee but last night Taylor Rogers threw a two-inning save in the first leg of  a doubleheader and then recorded his 3rd save of the year in today’s outing. Rogers struck out five yesterday but struggle a tad in today’s save, allowing three baserunners and a run. The Trevors May and Hildenberger set up today’s game in the 7th and 8th respectively and Blake Parker wasn’t used in any of the games. Yesterday we were told he was under the weather so that could explain his absence but Rogers and Hildenberger have also been more effective than him this year. This is still a committee with Parker at the top but his margin for error is certainly small.

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