• Shawn Kelley had been effective since returning from the IL but he blew his 2nd save lat night against the Angels, allowing three hits and two runs taking the loss. Jose Leclerc pitched a scoreless 7th inning striking out three batters and should be even closer to taking back the closer’s role. Leclerc hasn’t allowed a run in his last five appearances and since May he’s allowed just one run in 10 innings with 19 strikeouts against 5 walks. A change hasn’t been announced but keep an eye on this situation as Leclerc might not give back the job once he starts securing saves, assuming he keeps up his good work of late.

• Since Pedro Strop has hit the IL the Cubs have mostly gone with Steve Cishek for saves but last night with some of their guys unavailable it was Tyler Chatwood who recorded his first save of the year, pitching around two hits in a scoreless 9th. I wouldn’t expect Chatwood to rack up many more saves this year and even though Cishek blew the save on Friday, I would expect him to continue to be the main option moving forward while Strop is out with a hamstring issue. With that said, Strop is close to returning to the Cubs but it’s unlikely he’s given the keys to the 9th immediately upon return. As Greg noted, yesterday, Cishek was very effective before his last outing and even when Strop is back to full strength he could continue to see saves.

• Roberto Osuna blew the game for the Astros yesterday but got the win after the Astros scored off of Matt Barnes in the bottom of the 9th. Setting up Osuna was Ryan Pressley who got 4 outs in the 7th and 8th innings. Pressly recently lost his impressive scoreless appearance streak this season but he’s been utterly incredible this season and after last night supports a 0.39 ERA in 21.1 innings with a 1.56/1.74/1.80 FIP/xFIP/SIERA. Pressly might be the best option in the pen but it’s still Osuna to own for saves.

• Quick Hits: Josh Lucas threw three innings for the save for Baltimore. He’s not on the grid (yet) but if he keeps pitching well it’s not a tough bar to clear in Baltimore. Julio Urias threw two innings of relief and should continue to rack up solid numbers while he pitches out of the pen. He will return to the rotation at some point but he’s worth owning in whichever role he takes. There was no save in Tampa but Diego Castillo secured a 4 run lead in the 9th while striking out a pair. Castillo, Jose Alvarado and even Emilio Pagan should all be owned depending on the league. Jordan Hicks (10) pitched a perfect 9th, Blake Treinen (10) struggled a bit allowing three hits and two runs but held on for the save, and Aroldis Chapman (14) closed the 2nd game of the double-header against Kansas City.

• Wade Davis went on the IL yesterday with an oblique strain. Thankfully the injury is not considered to be too severe but in his place for saves will be Scott Oberg. Oberg has been an effective set up man this year with a 1.77 ERA but under the hood tells a different story with a 4.70/4.91/5.31 FIP/xFIP/SIERA. Oberg has thrown 20.1 innings and only has 13 strikeouts with 11 walks. His SwStr% suggests a few more whiffs may be coming but the overall profile looks like someone who might get a few saves but hurt your ratios. Behind him is Carlos Estevez and Bryan Shaw. Shaw has the “experience” but he’s carrying a 5.70 ERA this year with Estevez looking like the most promising option of the three but Oberg will be getting the first crack at saves. Estevez has a 3.27 ERA and solid peripherals with a fantastic 15.6% SwStr% and 29 strikeouts against 8 walks in 22 innings. It’s tough to trust a reliever in Colorado that isn’t getting saves but Oberg might not have a long leash if he struggles so I would keep an eye out for Estevez as well.

• Shawn Kelley has been off of the IL for two days and he’s closed two doors in that time, getting another save last night against the Mariners, striking out a pair for his 4th save this year. Jose Leclerc’s return to saves is likely imminent but until then Kelley should see the save chances. Regarding Leclerc, he’s been so up and down but in his last four appearances he has 5.1 innings pitched with 11 strikeouts and no walks and a 19.7% SwStr%. Leclerc’s velocity has been fine all year but he was struggling with missing bats and his control, if the last few outings show anything he might be back to where he was. He will likely never be a control artist but if he’s getting whiffs again he should provide solid value here on out, assuming he takes over the closer’s chair soon.

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In Tout Wars this year, have been graced with four suspect closers but they’ve caused me to ponder how to handle the “riches”. The issue is that they are not stable and I’d not be surprised if all four were out of a job next month. I polled my Twitter followers to see which one they had the most faith in.

I have the following four closers in @ToutWars. Who do you think will have the most Saves at your season's end?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 24, 2019

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• After blowing the save against the Yankees on Friday, Jose Alvarado came back yesterday to get his 5th save of the year. Emilio Pagan pitched in the 8th and 9th getting 5 strikeouts, Hunter Wood pitched in the 10th and  Alvarado finished the 11th for the save. Diego Castillo had pitched in three of the last four games so he wasn’t used and although Alvarado got the save yesterday we are still going to have Castillo atop the committee. With that said, as has been the case all year, Castillo and Alvarado should share the save duties throughout the year and if we flip the order tomorrow I wouldn’t be too surprised. Pagan has taken a back seat in terms of saves of late but it’s worth noting after last night’s performance that he has only allowed one run in 14.2 innings pitched and has an insane 35.9% K-BB%. He shouldn’t be relied upon for more than a couple of random saves but he’s worth rostering nonetheless for ratios and strikeouts.

• Hansel Robles has become the go to man for the 9th inning in Anaheim but it was Ty Buttrey who got the save last night, getting the final 5 outs in the process. Although Buttrey received the save, I’m not quite ready to make this a committee again since Robles has really received the vast majority of save chance of late. Robles has the velocity and strikeouts one would want in a closer but Buttrey has been the better pitcher and both should definitely be owned in a majority of leagues. On the year Buttrey has thrown 23.2 innings with only two runs allowed and is supporting a 1.25/2.74/2.37 FIP/xFIP/SIERA with a 13.4% SwStr%. The Angels have used him for more multi-inning appearances with Robles largely throwing in the 9th, I suspect that will continue with Robles still being the nominal closer but Buttrey snagging the occasional save.

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• Blake Parker was used to get the last out of the 8th inning last night with Trevor Hildenberger coming on for the the 9th. However, after giving up three runs Mike Morin came in for the final two outs to get his first save of the year. While the committee is still strong in Minnesota, Mike Morin isn’t a part of it. Parker is still in the lead with Taylor Rogers and Trevor May behind him. Every time the Twins get a save I basically repeat the previous line, but that’s how it will go until something changes!

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Introduction

I made the following controversial proclamation earlier this year – that Chris Archer is highly overvalued by fantasy owners. I go even further to say that in all but deep mixed leagues and mono leagues – continually rostering the right hander would be a poor use of fantasy resources.

My contention with Archer’s value stems from his ratio stats:

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• Blake Treinen allowed three hits and blew his second save of the year but only allowed one earned run, struck out a pair, and received the win when the A’s scored off of A.J. Cole in the 9th inning. Treinen has previously been dealing with some elbow issues and his velo was a seasonal low of 96.83 mph during his appearance on April 28th but since then he’s been at his normal 98+. Treinen was never going to duplicate last year’s 0.78 ERA across 80.1 innings pitched but it looks as though the elbow flare up wasn’t a major red flag and he should remain a top closer moving forward.

• Jacob deGrom threw seven innings and the Mets went Seth Lugo -> Edwin Diaz for the 8th and 9th innings, just like the grid below. The Mets have insisted that Diaz will only go one inning per appearance which might help kepe him healthier all year but hurts his value a tad since his innings and raw totals won’t be the same as years past. With all that said, Diaz still might be the best closer in the fantasy game.

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• As Al mentioned yesterday, the Rangers were sticking with a committee of Chris Marin and Shawn Kelley as Leclerc continues to work on his craft. However, the Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin closing tandem is now over for the moment, with Kelley hitting the IL with an infection. This likely helps explain why Chris Martin was used for the previous save as well but with Kelley out for the time being the committee is closed with Martin owning the 9th. The other options in the Rangers bullpen aren’t too compelling so Jose Leclerc will remain on the grid and I have added Airel Jurado to the mix behind him as he has been effective so far in his six appearances maintaining a 0.00 ERA and a compelling 21.4% K-BB%. As far as Leclerc goes, he was used last night and was completely wild, walking three batters without finishing the 9th inning. It wasn’t a save situation but still, after a couple of decent appearances it wasn’t a great sign to see Leclerc struggle again. The Rangers want Leclerc to take back the reins but on the year he has a 181.% BB% and a career low 8.3% SwStr%. His velocity is right where he always is but the whiffs are missing and so is his control. It might not take too many solid appearances for Leclerc to get back into the closer’s chair, but he’s not close at the moment.

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• Shawn Kelley received the first save opportunity since Leclerc was removed from closer, and he it was a success with Kelley throwing a scorless inning for his 2nd save of the year. Chris Martin pitched a scoreless 8th and our old friend Leclerc was used in the 7th and looked pretty effective, stirking out a pair in a perfect inning. One successful inning won’t put Leclerc back as the closer but the fact he’s still pitching in higher leverage innings and in the very short term, is looking better, bodes well for him taking back the 9th at some point. In the meantime, the Rangers are still saying this is a committee but I would continue to bet on Kelley as the main provider of saves while Leclerc works his way back. Read the rest of this entry »

After taking last week off, I’m back to make a brief examination of some pitchers who worry me with their declining velocity. There is no good news today. It’s just some pitchers who could be headed for a demotion or the IL.

Some quick housekeeping. The entire list of pitchers and their fastball changes are available on this spreadsheet. With more data available, I examined at the past two weeks of data for the in-season information. Finally, an injury value of -100 is bad and +100 is good.

Note: Sorry for the short article but real life got in the way and I want to make sure I have time to go through the AL lineups tomorrow.

Carlos Rodon
2018 FBv: 93.0
2019 FBv: 91.5
Last two week: 90.6

Note: This was written before he went on the DL

The 26-year-old seemed to have finally righted the boat after dealing with injuries and wildness for several seasons. In his first five starts this season, he had a 2.89 ERA and 11.3 K/9 (huge jump over 8.8 K/9 career value). Two blowup starts came against offensive powerhouses Detroit and Baltimore and now he has a 5.19 ERA fueled by a 4.4 BB/9.
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