In Tout Wars this year, have been graced with four suspect closers but they’ve caused me to ponder how to handle the “riches”. The issue is that they are not stable and I’d not be surprised if all four were out of a job next month. I polled my Twitter followers to see which one they had the most faith in.

I have the following four closers in @ToutWars. Who do you think will have the most Saves at your season's end?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 24, 2019

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• After blowing the save against the Yankees on Friday, Jose Alvarado came back yesterday to get his 5th save of the year. Emilio Pagan pitched in the 8th and 9th getting 5 strikeouts, Hunter Wood pitched in the 10th and  Alvarado finished the 11th for the save. Diego Castillo had pitched in three of the last four games so he wasn’t used and although Alvarado got the save yesterday we are still going to have Castillo atop the committee. With that said, as has been the case all year, Castillo and Alvarado should share the save duties throughout the year and if we flip the order tomorrow I wouldn’t be too surprised. Pagan has taken a back seat in terms of saves of late but it’s worth noting after last night’s performance that he has only allowed one run in 14.2 innings pitched and has an insane 35.9% K-BB%. He shouldn’t be relied upon for more than a couple of random saves but he’s worth rostering nonetheless for ratios and strikeouts.

• Hansel Robles has become the go to man for the 9th inning in Anaheim but it was Ty Buttrey who got the save last night, getting the final 5 outs in the process. Although Buttrey received the save, I’m not quite ready to make this a committee again since Robles has really received the vast majority of save chance of late. Robles has the velocity and strikeouts one would want in a closer but Buttrey has been the better pitcher and both should definitely be owned in a majority of leagues. On the year Buttrey has thrown 23.2 innings with only two runs allowed and is supporting a 1.25/2.74/2.37 FIP/xFIP/SIERA with a 13.4% SwStr%. The Angels have used him for more multi-inning appearances with Robles largely throwing in the 9th, I suspect that will continue with Robles still being the nominal closer but Buttrey snagging the occasional save.

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• Blake Parker was used to get the last out of the 8th inning last night with Trevor Hildenberger coming on for the the 9th. However, after giving up three runs Mike Morin came in for the final two outs to get his first save of the year. While the committee is still strong in Minnesota, Mike Morin isn’t a part of it. Parker is still in the lead with Taylor Rogers and Trevor May behind him. Every time the Twins get a save I basically repeat the previous line, but that’s how it will go until something changes!

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Introduction

I made the following controversial proclamation earlier this year – that Chris Archer is highly overvalued by fantasy owners. I go even further to say that in all but deep mixed leagues and mono leagues – continually rostering the right hander would be a poor use of fantasy resources.

My contention with Archer’s value stems from his ratio stats:

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• Blake Treinen allowed three hits and blew his second save of the year but only allowed one earned run, struck out a pair, and received the win when the A’s scored off of A.J. Cole in the 9th inning. Treinen has previously been dealing with some elbow issues and his velo was a seasonal low of 96.83 mph during his appearance on April 28th but since then he’s been at his normal 98+. Treinen was never going to duplicate last year’s 0.78 ERA across 80.1 innings pitched but it looks as though the elbow flare up wasn’t a major red flag and he should remain a top closer moving forward.

• Jacob deGrom threw seven innings and the Mets went Seth Lugo -> Edwin Diaz for the 8th and 9th innings, just like the grid below. The Mets have insisted that Diaz will only go one inning per appearance which might help kepe him healthier all year but hurts his value a tad since his innings and raw totals won’t be the same as years past. With all that said, Diaz still might be the best closer in the fantasy game.

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• As Al mentioned yesterday, the Rangers were sticking with a committee of Chris Marin and Shawn Kelley as Leclerc continues to work on his craft. However, the Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin closing tandem is now over for the moment, with Kelley hitting the IL with an infection. This likely helps explain why Chris Martin was used for the previous save as well but with Kelley out for the time being the committee is closed with Martin owning the 9th. The other options in the Rangers bullpen aren’t too compelling so Jose Leclerc will remain on the grid and I have added Airel Jurado to the mix behind him as he has been effective so far in his six appearances maintaining a 0.00 ERA and a compelling 21.4% K-BB%. As far as Leclerc goes, he was used last night and was completely wild, walking three batters without finishing the 9th inning. It wasn’t a save situation but still, after a couple of decent appearances it wasn’t a great sign to see Leclerc struggle again. The Rangers want Leclerc to take back the reins but on the year he has a 181.% BB% and a career low 8.3% SwStr%. His velocity is right where he always is but the whiffs are missing and so is his control. It might not take too many solid appearances for Leclerc to get back into the closer’s chair, but he’s not close at the moment.

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• Shawn Kelley received the first save opportunity since Leclerc was removed from closer, and he it was a success with Kelley throwing a scorless inning for his 2nd save of the year. Chris Martin pitched a scoreless 8th and our old friend Leclerc was used in the 7th and looked pretty effective, stirking out a pair in a perfect inning. One successful inning won’t put Leclerc back as the closer but the fact he’s still pitching in higher leverage innings and in the very short term, is looking better, bodes well for him taking back the 9th at some point. In the meantime, the Rangers are still saying this is a committee but I would continue to bet on Kelley as the main provider of saves while Leclerc works his way back. Read the rest of this entry »

After taking last week off, I’m back to make a brief examination of some pitchers who worry me with their declining velocity. There is no good news today. It’s just some pitchers who could be headed for a demotion or the IL.

Some quick housekeeping. The entire list of pitchers and their fastball changes are available on this spreadsheet. With more data available, I examined at the past two weeks of data for the in-season information. Finally, an injury value of -100 is bad and +100 is good.

Note: Sorry for the short article but real life got in the way and I want to make sure I have time to go through the AL lineups tomorrow.

Carlos Rodon
2018 FBv: 93.0
2019 FBv: 91.5
Last two week: 90.6

Note: This was written before he went on the DL

The 26-year-old seemed to have finally righted the boat after dealing with injuries and wildness for several seasons. In his first five starts this season, he had a 2.89 ERA and 11.3 K/9 (huge jump over 8.8 K/9 career value). Two blowup starts came against offensive powerhouses Detroit and Baltimore and now he has a 5.19 ERA fueled by a 4.4 BB/9.
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• As Al mentioned last night Jose Leclerc is getting a breather from the closer’s role and we expect Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin to fill in for saves as Leclerc is used in lower leverage situations. I have changed the grid to include Kelley and Martin in a committee with Kelley ahead at the moment although we will have to wait for the next save chance to see which direction the Rangers go. Shawn Kelley has been better this year and has saved games in the past so that’s why he’s ahead for the time being. The Rangers signed Leclerc to an extension this offseason and they gave him a long leash through his struggles this year, so they’re not going to give up on him but until he finds his rhythm again, he won’t be seeing saves.

• Ty Buttrey got his first save with the Angels this year, pitching a scoreless two innings allowing two hits and striking out a pair as well. Cam Bedrosian threw a scoreless 7th inning for his third hold of the year and committee chair Hansel Robles wasn’t used. Buttrey and Robles will continue to see saves with Cody Allen out and even when he returns as they are definitively better pitchers. However, guessing who gets more saves here is a little tough. Although Robles has been great in his own right this year, Buttrey is the best option but as we have seen in Boston with Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier, sometimes it’s the second best option that gets the saves. Both are obviously worth owning and only time will tell if this stays as a committee for a while or if it will go in a single direction.

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• After giving up a home run and a couple of runs in his previous appearance, Hector Neris was called on for the save last night and pitched around a base hit for his 4th save, striking out a pair in the process. Hector Neris will likely always struggle more with the long ball than one would want for high leverage situations, but he’s also been quite effective this year. In 12.1 innings this year, Neris has a 2.92/3.13/2.57 ERA/FIP/xFIP along with a 2.16 SIERA and a 19/3 k/bb. Although I’m sure other relievers will see some saves, especially with Robertson still out, I’m going to remove the committee tag here as it feels like he’s taking ownership of the role. Truth be told, this has as much to do with the warts of the other options in the pen as much as it has to do with Neris’ success as Pat Neshek is used more situationally, Adam Morgan is a lefty, and Seranthony Dominguez hasn’t been effective early this season. Another name to still look out for is Victor Arano who is still on the IL, but if captures some of the magic he was showing earlier he could be a useful piece for ratios and strikeouts whether or not saves are in the picture.

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