A few bullpen notes as you enjoy whatever it is you choose to do this July 4th…

•  Welp, after I mentioned last week that Greg Holland’s job seemed safe he decided to implode, blowing another save last night and now he might be in danger of losing his job. Al did a great job going through the possible options last night so there’s no reason to relitigate the back of the Diamondbacks pen. Bat Flip Crazy also had a Tweet worth mentioning here showcasing Holland’s struggles and decline this month. A replacement for Holland hasn’t been mentioned yet so he will stay on the grid below but it’s unlikely that he continues to see save opportunities with Andrew Chafin, Yoan Lopez, and Yoshihisa Hirano all possible alternatives. Whoever Torey Lovullo chooses is worth an add but this is a situation that could use some time to sort itself out.

• Blake Treinen returned from the IL last night and promptly received the loss, allowing an earned run and three base runners to the Twins, while only recording one out. The A’s end goal is for Treinen to return to closing but until he shows signs of improvement his seat is going to be hot and shared with Liam Hendriks who has been consistently better than him all season. I’m giving Oakland the committee designation for now. If Treinen doesn’t start stringing together some scoreless appearances then he might return to the IL but would definitely lose his grasp on saves. If Treinen shows improvement then I would expect him to receive the majority of saves here on out. This is a tenuous situation and both players are worth owning for any teams in need of saves. My hot take would be that Treinen has looked off all year and his minimum IL stint hasn’t done anything to convince me otherwise and I would look to buy low-ish on Hendriks with an owner afraid that it’s Treinen’s job again.

Read the rest of this entry »

From now until the trade deadline at the month’s end, I will be publishing a weekly post on overall closer rankings. The focus is not the best closers, but the combination of talent, opportunity, the chance of being traded, other bullpen arms, and mainly accumulating Saves. These rankings could change on a dime but at least they provide some structure for speculating on Saves.

I find the rumor mill boring but usually where there is smoke, there is fire. For that reason, I’m basing the chances of being traded on MLBTraderumors and The Athletic’s most likely traded lists. If they are wrong, I’m wrong.
Read the rest of this entry »

• Wade Davis‘ struggles have been well documented so it was nice to see him throw a perfect inning, striking out a pair for his 12th save last night. Davis has been abysmal at home which can explain some of his troubles but Coors Field isn’t going anywhere. One clean save won’t necessarily get Davis out of the dog house either as Scott Oberg was unavailable last night. The next save opportunity for the Rockies will be more telling although given Wade Davis’ contract I have to imagine he gets another chance as full time closer again, and could even have that job back already.

• No save situation in Oakland but Liam Hendriks got the final four outs for the A’s. Blake Treinen is still on the shelf with a shoulder issue but he’s working his way towards returning. Treinen should get the job back once he returns but given his struggles, his elbow issue earlier, and now the shoulder impingement, I wouldn’t bet on an easy and clean return to the 9th. If Treinen has any setbacks, Hendriks would clearly continue to be the closer but even if/when Treinen returns I would hold onto Hendriks as Treinen’s struggles have been fairly prominent.

• Like many people, I was critical of the Braves for not acquiring a reliever but they might have something in Luke Jackson. Jackson pitched around a walk, striking out a pair for his 13th save and although he has quite a few blown saves, he’s been excellent of late. On the year Jackson has a 2.49 SIERA,  a 25.6% K-BB%, and a 15.2% SwStr% which ranks 8th, 17th, and 22nd respectively among qualified relievers. The Braves could still use additional bullpen arms as any competing team could more or less, but they’re not in dire straights for a closer/shutdown reliever. A.J. Minter has also been better of late and although I think Jackson’s job is safe, Minter would likely see saves when Jackson needs a breather moving forward.

• It’s a closer carousel every year but Shane Green has completely avoided it in Detroit, getting his 22nd save last night. I can’t say I expected Greene to be among the league leaders in saves with an ERA under one (0.87) but here we are. I have read that the Tigers would trade Shane Greene, along with other players on the roster, but there hasn’t been a strong link yet with any team. Greene has another year of team control next year so the Tigers won’t be shipping him off for peanuts but I would still expect him to finish the year on another team than Detroit. While Greene has a shiny ERA his peripherals, although pretty good, aren’t quite as strong and he may not be the best reliever on whichever team he would theoretically be traded to. With that said, I would keep cashing in on his saves moving forward as your league mates are probably just as worried as you are about a possible trade.

• Quick Hits: Greg Holland doesn’t get talked about too much around here but he’s been consistent as the Diamondbacks closer, notching his 12th save. Holland could be a desired piece if he was put on the market but the DBacks have been pretty good this year and I would expect them to keep him on the team. Poor outing from Hader last night as he only had one strikeout for his 20th save. Roenis Elias took the loss last night but remains the Mariners closer. Barring a bad run he should hold that job so long as he’s in Seattle, which may not last the month as he could be on the move at the deadline as a lefty arm. Jose Alvarado returned to Tampa and gave up a run in a non-save situation in the 9th. Alvarado should continue to pitch in high leverage innings in Tampa, splitting saves with Pagan. Sergio Romo isn’t sexy but he continues to put up saves, grabbing his 15th. It’s assumed Romo will be on the move as well but he’s not a particularly good pitcher so he might actually see more saves than expected to end the year.

• After a longer than normal offseason for him, Craig Kimbrel is back on the Cubs as he’s getting activated and is now no longer a Cubs minor leaguer. Kimbrel didn’t join the Cubs to not pitch in the 9th inning so he immediately moves to the top of the grid with Pedro Strop and Steve Cishek behind him in the pecking order. Kimbrel showed a few signs last year of some rust but 90% of Prime Kimbrel is still an elite closing option. It’s probably smarter to wait to see how Kimbrel does before anointing him as such but he will surely have a long leash, he will get strike outs even if he’s not as effective as expected, and the Cubs should provide him a healthy dose of leads to protect.

• The trade rumors are starting to percolate with Jon Morosi going over a few relievers who could be on the market. The Pirates have yet to suggest they’re going to fully sell and as a result haven’t mentioned Felipe Vazquez as a trade piece but Morosi connects the Dodgers as someone to have interest in Vazquez. Any contending team would of course love to add a Felipe Vazquez but until he’s mentioned as available it’s hard to say anything is imminent. With that said, Vazquez would likely lose his closer’s role on the Dodgers with Kenley Jansen cemented there. And while every team would love a Vazquez, not every team has the assets to acquire but the Dodgers do have a great farm system with a few pieces MLB or near MLB ready which is likely something the Pirates would want if they were to “rebuild.”

Of more interest in the Morosi piece is Will Smith, who we have mentioned as a trade candidate since the season started. Although the Giants have been horrible, Smith has upped his game becoming not just a solid lefty option but a shutdown reliever. Will Smith ranks 3rd in the MLB in K-BB% for relievers behind Josh Hader and Ken Giles but ahead of bigger names like Edwin Diaz, Brad Hand, and Felipe Vazquez. The Giants expected to trade Will Smith this summer but they likely didn’t expect to get as big of a return as they might get given how well Smith has done. If/when Smith is traded, it will be interesting to see who replaces him. Tony Watson’s usage suggests it could be him but Sam Dyson and Mark Melancon (and his contract) are also lingering. Reyes Moronta is the closer of the future but there are too many options ahead of him at the moment. Also, while Smith gets a lot of the deserved attention, all the aforementioned names behind him in the pen are on the table too and could be moved in a deal either with or separately from Smith.

• For a while Matt Barnes was named the best reliever in Boston but wasn’t being used as the main closer. While he still might be the best reliever of the bunch he hasn’t been of late as his struggles continued last night blowing his 6th save after Jose Abreu took him deep in the 9th inning.  The Sox pen remains both a committee and a disaster with Barnes, Workman, Brasier, and others eligible for a save on a given night.

• Speaking of disasters, Raisel Iglesias had one last night in a non-save situation. Iglesias entered in a tie game in the 8th and proceeded to allow three hits, a walk, and a homer to Justin Bour culminating in four earned runs and a 7th loss. Iglesias’ seasonal line is still pretty good with a 3.68 SIERA and a healthy amount of whiffs but he has been a legitimate disaster in non-save situations. A poor outing is a poor outing and it’s hard to fully buy into Iglesias not being as good in non-save situations moving forward, but earlier this season he confessed his distaste for being used non-traditionally so it might force the Reds hand to use him as a regular closer. Iglesias’ struggles outside of the 9th make me less likely to put the Reds situation as a committee even if they have low key been trending towards that direction. I’m keeping the grid the same with Iglesias’ seat getting a tad warm.

• Quick Hits: Taylor Rogers had a four-out save and his grasp on the job is tightening. As we have mentioned, the Twins could very likely add to their pen and throw Rogers and co. back into a committee but for now he’s their guy. Roenis Elias recorded his 10th save, throwing two innings in the process and he’s proving himself as someone capable to close games or be used as a lefty and should be a decent trade target this summer because as we know everything is for sale in Seattle. A.J. Minter got the save last night with Luke Jackson and Anthony Swarzak getting a night off. Minter is still behind those two in the pecking order but he’s been pretty good of late and is helping firm the Braves pen. Liam Hendricks nailed down his 2nd save of the year with Blake Treinen on the IL. Treinen has a shoulder issue so I wouldn’t bank on a quick return and would bank on Hendricks receiving the vast majority of saves for the remainder of the year in Oakland. Sean Doolittle (17) and  Wade Davis (11) also recorded saves last night.

• Earlier this season Blake Treinen was dealing with some elbow discomfort and now he has been placed on the IL with a shoulder issue. The A’s are calling it minor but in the meantime Liam Hendricks is expected to fill in as closer as he secured his first save last night, pitching a perfect 9th while striking out a pair. Some muscle memory with Joakim Soria on the grid in recent years almost made me throw him below but Yusmeiro Petit pitched 1.1 innings with 4 strikeouts in the 7th and 8th and has been a little more effective than Soria this year. Lou Trivino was expected to be next in line for Oakland, but he’s been struggling himself of late and Hendricks leapfrogged him in the pecking order. Whether Hendricks is closing for a couple of weeks or more will depending on how Treinen recovers. I’m clearly now doctor but it’s also clear that Treinen has not quite been himself this year even if his velocity has maintained.

• We mentioned Diego Castillo’s recent struggles yesterday and those continued with Castillo allowing two runs and four baserunners in the 7th inning last night, getting his 6th loss this season. The Rays have always been in a committee so its still a three-headed closrer with Castillo, Jose Alvarado, and Emilio Pagan but the preferred order of operations isn’t necessarily known. With Castillo’s struggles (11 runs in his last 9 appearances) I have put Alvarado atop the committee even though he has dealt with his own struggles this season. I don’t feel confident enough to say Pagan has jumped into the lead but if he keeps throwing like he has been that could happen.

• Naturally after I take off the committee tag for the Twins, Taylor Rogers is used in the 8th inning and blows the lead. After the Twins scored in the top of the 10th to take the lead Blake Parker was used in the bottom half, throwing a perfect inning for his 10th save. I am going to sadly reapply the committee tag here as the Twins will still throw their best option in the earlier innings on occasion, but Rogers is still by far the best reliever to own in Minnesota.

• Jose Leclerc pitched in the 8th inning last night, throwing a scoreless frame dropping his ERA to 4.72. Although he has an elevated ERA his 3.07 SIERA and 3.58 xFIP are closer to in line with what we expected from him this year. With that said, Leclerc still isn’t getting saves yet in Texas with Chris Martin getting the nod for the 9th instead of Shawn Kelley last night. Martin pitched a clean inning for his 3rd save. With Leclerc looming it feels silly for Texas to anoint Chris Marin as the closer but it seems as though he and Kelley could be co-closers moving forward. With that said, Kelley has struggled of late so a change wouldn’t be surprising. Leclerc had a few poor outings in a row in early June but in spite of that, since May 12th he has a 1.58 SIERA, 41.9% K-BB%, and a 16.1% SwStr%. Leclerc will never have particularly good control but he’s back to missing bats again and I would bet the over on his rest-of-season saves compared to Kelley+Martin.

• Quick Hits: Will Smith remains an obvious trade deadline candidate but amidst that he keeps shutting down the 9th, getting 20th save last night. With Aroldis Chapman getting a break, Zack Britton recorded his 3rd save. Britton’s experience (and contract) might place him next in line in New York but he walked three batters last night and overall hasn’t been particularly effective, with Adam Ottavino the obvious best reliever behind Chapman. Josh Hader threw two perfect innings for his 18th save, Brad hand (22), Felipe Vazquez (19), and Ken Giles (12) all recorded saves as well.

• With Diego Castillo having been used in the previous games (while also struggling a bit) the Rays continued their committee with Emilio Pagan getting the last two outs for his 4th save of the year. Oliver Drake got the last out in the 8th and the first of the 9th but was relieved for Pagan after allowing a walk. Jose Alvarado has been out of commission for personal reasons but threw a bullpen session this week and should be back in action soon. We still have Castillo first in the pecking order but if his struggles continue, Alvarado or Pagan could leapfrog. All three had more appealing ratios earlier this season but they’re all effective relievers and could all be owned, especially in leagues counting holds.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Since returning from the IL, Wade Davis has been very ineffective, leading to a deserved red band in the grid below. The Rockies haven’t made any changes yet of course and called on Davis in the 9th last night for the save. Davis got his 9th save while striking out a pair, but not before allowing a solo shot to Kevin Cron. It’s nice to see Davis get the save and a couple of whiffs but since his return he’s allowed 8 runs in 6 appearances and a very meager 7.1% Swinging Strike rate. Although he got the save, Davis will have to start putting up zeros to hold the job or a potential return to the IL.

Read the rest of this entry »

It has been a little while since I introduced to you my Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) for pitchers. wPDI is a (new) plate discipline index metric that aims to meaningfully aggregate the frequency of pitcher plate discipline outcomes into one composite figure. A pitcher who generates a lot of contact in the zone will have a lower wPDI, while a pitcher who generates a lot of swings and misses out of the zone will have a higher one, etc.

We are now almost halfway into the 2019 season. Let’s check up on the 2019 wPDI Leaderboard for RPs – i.e. the relief pitchers who are excelling in plate discipline.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Bad news for the Blue Jays and people with Ken Giles shares as he went on the IL with elbow inflammation. The current word is that Giles doesn’t expect to miss more than the minimum but I’m going to guess that if we bet the over on length of IL stint with elbow inflammation that we would have some solid pocket change by now. With that said, at least the early prognosis isn’t tragic and Giles might not miss significant time. The Jays are sellers and they sure would want to see Giles performing well by the trade deadline. This might be a little set back but if he’s back soon that could still be in play.

In Giles place the Jays nominated Joe Biagini as the closer in lieu of this news but he struggled last night, called on in the 8th inning and only getting one out while allowing three guys on and two runs. Dan Hudson then came on and got the last four outs for his first save of the year. Since the Jays announced Biagini, I’m putting him atop the grid but made it yellow with Hudson someone to monitor as well. Hudson has a nicer 3.30 ERA but struggling with walks leading to a 4.68 SIERA. In spite of his struggles last night, Biagini stil has a 3.70 SIERA and has been the better reliever this year. Ideally, this is only concerning a few save opportunities with Giles making a quick return but if there are any setbacks, Biagini could receive several chances moving forward.

• Anthony Bass finished the 8th inning and was brought in for the 9th but struggled and blew the save for the Mariners. After they scored a few in the 10th,  Roenis Elias was called on to secure the second save chance and he closed the door for his 6th save. There are no particular good options for the Mariners at the moment but I’m going to put Bass and Elias in a committee for the time being with Austin Adams and Brandon Brennan also lingering behind. This situation is pretty fluid without an obvious answer, especially with Hunter Strickland having a minor set back in his recovery.

• Although there was no save opportunity for the Twins, it’s worth noting their usage last night. Blake Parker was brought in the 8th to try to clean up Trevor May’s mini mess and he proceeded to give up three runs without recording an out. As mentioned, Trevor May wasn’t effective either but I’ve moved May to next-in-line in Minnesota although I’ve maintained committee status for all three. Taylor Rogers is dealing with a sore back and should return soon. If he was healthy he probably would have been used last night. After last night’s outing, Parker’s ERA stands at 4.37 with even worse peripherals. Even thought last night’s usage might have him ahead of May on the grid, I’m content with the order below. It’s worth noting again that as the Twins have been terrific this year they are likely not going to head into October with Taylor Rogers and some dudes ending games. They aren’t linked to any trades specifically, but that should start changing in the coming weeks.

• Quick Hits: Will Smith allowed a few runners to get on but otherwise held on for his 16th save. Lots of teams could use his services and we will track the rumors as they come. Shane Greene pitched around a hit for his 20th save and like Will Smith, as a closer on a bad team he could be on the move, especially if he keeps putting up zeros. Felipe Vazquez got the 8th inning against the Braves last night with the meatier part of the lineup up. Kyle Crick blew the chance in the 9th and Vazquez still holds a firm grasp on the closer’s gig, but in today’s game only a few closers have 100% 9th inning save usage. Greg Holland got the save (10), Blake Treinen pitched a scoreless 9th up four runs striking out a pair and helping easing some minor concerns as he was in a rough patch.

• Jeremy Jeffress pitched a scoreless 8th handing the ball off to Josh Hader who recorded his 15th save of the year. After Jeffress returned from the IL, it was mentioned that he might bite into Hader’s save chances, giving him more flexibility but even though Jeffress has been effective, Hader has kept the sole closer job. The trade deadline hot stove might heat up in Milwaukee with additional relief options, but even if the Brewers bring in another closer, Hader’s value would remain fairly high given how utterly ridiculous he is. There are no strong rumors at the moment but those in redraft leagues should hold firm regardless. However, year to year relievers can be pretty fickle and there may be no higher time to sell Hader if you are in a keeper or dynasty league.

• The Braves surprised me in signing Dallas Keuchel since they had passed on Kimbrel who was maybe a bigger need in the pen. With that said, Luke Jackson remains their go-to-guy, getting the last four outs for his 9th save. Anthony Swarzak pitched 1.2 perfect innings in the 7th and 8th and his recent performances along with Jacob Webb’s struggles have placed him on the grid. Swan Newcomb got two outs in the 8th and he remains the main set up option ahead of Luke Jackson. The Braves still have a ton of young arms that could emerge from the pen or be used for additional seasoned bullpen arms but for now it looks like Jackson could be an above average closer here on out, both in terms of saves and ratios.

Read the rest of this entry »