Fridays used to mean shows and bars and friends, but they still hold the same excitement now that I’m a family man (and to tell the truth, they’ll mean shows and bars and friends again some day). The idea that I might have unstructured, unhurried time with my son, and maybe even time for a nap in the backyard with a beer by my side… that’s pretty exciting these days. When did I get this old.

Age has something to do with these ranks. It’s a double-edged sword. Have some years and a track record on you and we’ll give you more leash when you’re struggling. And yet you’ll have those that question if you’re done before your time. Be a young guy on the come and we’ll be tempted to have you number one with a bullet, but reason says that expectations should be tempered, especially those put upon teenagers.

Let’s look at the outfielder rankings, which have some high-profile movers and shakers and some interesting debuts.

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I’ll be honest with you. Rankings week is a tough week. It seems that everybody zooms in on the rankings of their players and wants them to be better. Most want more reactionary rankings than a site like RotoGraphs is going to give. The difficulty is that it is much more likely that a player’s true talent is the same as it was a month ago, and we do our best to find that true talent.

Of course, there are breakouts. There are role changes. There are injuries. And that’s where most of the movement will come. Third base should provide more movement than most, considering the fact that the position has had more breakouts, role changes and injuries than most. Let’s take a look at them.

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As you no doubt have noticed, this week we have been rolling out our updated positional tiers and consensus rankings. Today is American League starting pitcher day, which means that I have not actually forgotten to rank Lance Lynn, and no, this does not mean I think Tim Lincecum is not roster-worthy. Most importantly, these tiers are based strictly on how I rank the pitchers going forward. What’s done is done, so I don’t care what a pitcher’s results are right now, aside from how it may help me project them going forward. You can check out my pre-season tiers again to compare.

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Shortstops are the red-headed stepchildren of the offense, but this year, catastrophic injury has stayed away. Oops, jinxed. You can blame the next one on me.

Early changes in contact rate and batted ball mix are the first to become reliable, so look there for possible reasoning. Speed is a tricky thing, too — it’s such an athletic skill that sensing a slight decline early in the season might just be enough to worry about their wheels. Unfortunately, we haven’t yet seen a study that points out a harbinger for a speed loss (could Bill James‘ speed score become reliable in a third of a season perhaps?).

Questions for another time. For now, your Updated RotoGraphs Rest-of-Season Consensus Shorstop Rankings ™.

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Let’s take a minute all sitting right here to tell you how these rankings came to be. In West fantasylandia, born and raised, on fantasy leagues is where we spend most of our days. Chilling out, ranking, adding, dropping, all trading players with the dudes on the playground, when a couple of guys, they were up to no good, started asking “What about rankings for the rest of the season?” We got in one little fight, and the Dark Lord got scared, and he said “You good for nothings gotta get a consensus together.” So we pulled up our own rankings, each with our own methods, and we yelled to Appelman “Yo dude smell you later.” We looked at our blog, we were finally there, we had Rest-of-Season Consensus Ranks for all of our players.

Uh, so yeah, the point is, these are our consensus ranks for the rest of the season. Because of our methodology, they will move slower than popular opinion. They also don’t give a ton of credit for past work. Just enough we think. On to the second baseman.

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There’s a little more movement in these rankings.

Maybe it has to do with the fact that these guys are, you know, catchers. For one, their full-season sample size is smaller than that at any other position. If BABIP takes 500+ plate appearances to stabilize, you might get three catchers in a given year that achieve that level of playing time. It’s rough on the knees. Plus, since it’s such a defensively demanding position, catchers aren’t known for their sticks. Somehow that seems relevant here — maybe if the group isn’t known for their offense, as a whole, then a small ripple in their projections can mean that the rankings have to change in a big way.

Up second are the guys that most often touch the ball second on any given play.

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You can read all the books and blogs you want, but once you start the (wonderful, frightening) process of being a parent, most of it goes out the window. It’s immediately triage: HOW DO I GET THIS BABY TO STOP CRYING.

You can read all the books and blogs you want, but once you start the (wonderful, frightening) process of being a fantasy manger, most of it goes out the window. It’s immediately triage: HOW DO I FIELD A COMPETENT LINEUP WITH ALL THESE DUDES ON THE DL.

So it’s been a month of triage. Let’s look at the first base consensus rankings and see what happened. Then we’ll head down the line and update all the positions.

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In contrast to what we did last season, this year we’re doing monthly updates for our positional rankings as laid out by Eno Sarris and his minions.  In addition to that, we’re doing our monthly positional tier updates as well which should aid you in your waiver pick-ups and trade negotiations when you’re comparing values.  The rankings can be found over here and below is how I see them by tier… Read the rest of this entry »

As the first Monday in May (and every concurrent month afterwards), I bring you the updated American League outfield tiered rankings. The fluctuations here reflect the past weeks AL OF stock watches as well as what I envision as the player’s fantasy value going forward. As one may expect, previous players who I rated as being bullish have moved up, and vice versa with bearish players dropping down.

Tier One:
Curtis Granderson
Josh Hamilton

Granderson contributes significantly to every standard fantasy category. The only downside to Granderson is his mediocre average. The lack of steals so far in 2012 is more curious than worrisome at this early juncture. His ability to remain healthy and productive is the reason he is number one. Since 2006 he has only had less than 600 plate appearances in a season once, and in that year he still accrued 528 PA. The argument for Hamilton is that he has tied or superseded in Granderson in every statistic so far, including a .75 point batting average advantage. So why is Hamilton ranked #2? You should already know the answer to this: health. He has yet to go on the DL this year, but did miss a 3 game spell with back tightness. To say it another way: From 2008-2011, Hamilton has a total of 2,178 PA, or 544 PA per season while Granderson has garndered 2,558 PA for an average of 639 PA per season. Injuries are impossible to predict, but given the history of Granderson averaging ~100 more trips to the plate each season over the past four years tips the scales in his favor.

Tier Two:
Jose Bautista
Adam Jones
Desmond Jennings Read the rest of this entry »

With the calendar now flipped over to May, it’s time to update our position rankings. Here are our first base preseason tiers and consensus rankings. Due to popular demand, I’m leaving the catchers — Mike Napoli, Carlos Santana, Joe Mauer, Buster Posey — out of the first base tiers from here on out. We all know they’re far, far more valuable behind the plate both in real life and in fantasy. Remember, these rankings are geared more towards what players are expected to do from here on out, not necessarily what they did during the first month of the season.

Tier One
Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto
Prince Fielder
Adrian Gonzalez
Albert Pujols

So, how worried are you about Pujols? The ZiPS rest-of-season projection still loves him (.291/.376/.532) and I’m sure he’ll still whack 20-something homers the rest of the way, but is he still a lock for .300/30/100? I find that hard to believe at the moment. I’m not going to drop him out of the top tier after one bad month, but consider him officially on notice.

Meanwhile, did you know that Gonzalez has hit just 13 homers in his last 478 plate appearances dating back to last season? What’s up with that?

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