Updated Consensus Ranks: First Base
You can read all the books and blogs you want, but once you start the (wonderful, frightening) process of being a parent, most of it goes out the window. It’s immediately triage: HOW DO I GET THIS BABY TO STOP CRYING.
You can read all the books and blogs you want, but once you start the (wonderful, frightening) process of being a fantasy manger, most of it goes out the window. It’s immediately triage: HOW DO I FIELD A COMPETENT LINEUP WITH ALL THESE DUDES ON THE DL.
So it’s been a month of triage. Let’s look at the first base consensus rankings and see what happened. Then we’ll head down the line and update all the positions.
Amazingly, the top of our first base rankings did not change. That isn’t to say that they’ve all been playing wonderfully. It’s to say that they will be better later, we still have confidence in them, and as a group they’ve either done exactly what they were supposed to or fallen short of our expectations. No time to sell on those guys, unless you get full value and don’t think they’re worth that anymore. Going forward, though, their rest-of-season projections haven’t budged too much.
A couple injuries paved the way for a few modest rises in the mid-tier guys. Well, a few injuries and Ike Davis. Fittingly, the Mets guy is the hardest on his own dude. I’ll just say that I never loved that hitch in his swing, and that the swinging strike numbers are worrisome. The batting average may look pretty putrid this year. Amazingly, his fellow Met Lucas Duda is still lining up behind him — that’s something I don’t agree with. Perhaps my Dudaffection has gone too far, but I like what I see in his peripherals better. Somehow Duda didn’t budge in our rankings. Very strange.
Expect articles about that red tier ahead of Carlos Pena. That’s a minefield. I’ll just say that as a guy that’s older than you think, Gaby Sanchez has a lower ceiling than the guys in his mini-tier of destruction. On the other hand, given the playing time issues that can plague the guys he’s fighting, he probably also has the highest floor.
There I am, still plucking that Brandon Belt chicken.
Remember, in this game of triage, any of these guys might fit the right puzzle. Whatever works. But hopefully these rankings will help you get a sense of the rest-of-season value at the position. Expect the rest this week.
| FanGraphs Consensus Rankings: First Base |
||||||
| New | Last | Player Name | Eno Sarris | Mike Podhorzer | Jeff Zimmerman | Zach Sanders |
| 1 | 2 | Miguel Cabrera | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | Albert Pujols | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | Joey Votto | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | Adrian Gonzalez | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | Mark Teixeira | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 6 | 5 | Prince Fielder | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | Eric Hosmer | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 8 | 9 | Paul Konerko | 7 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 9 | 11 | Billy Butler | 9 | 8 | 14 | 10 |
| 10 | 13 | Michael Young | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 11 | 14 | Freddie Freeman | 10 | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | Lance Berkman | 11 | 12 | 10 | 14 |
| 13 | 8 | Pablo Sandoval | 15 | 16 | 7 | 9 |
| 14 | 16 | Michael Cuddyer | 13 | 9 | 17 | 15 |
| 15 | 23 | Carlos Lee | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | 35 | Howie Kendrick | 20 | 18 | 15 | 21 |
| 17 | 30 | Edwin Encarnacion | 16 | 13 | 30 | 16 |
| 18 | 10 | Michael Morse | 14 | 29 | 13 | 24 |
| 19 | 17 | Kevin Youkilis | 17 | 20 | 20 | 26 |
| 20 | 43 | Nick Swisher | 22 | 21 | 21 | 19 |
| 21 | 15 | Ike Davis | 23 | 15 | 22 | 23 |
| 22 | 22 | Lucas Duda | 18 | 28 | 28 | 20 |
| 23 | 20 | Gaby Sanchez | 24 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
| 24 | 18 | Mark Reynolds | 28 | 26 | 16 | 29 |
| 25 | 21 | Adam Lind | 21 | 27 | 23 | 30 |
| 26 | 24 | Mark Trumbo | 27 | 41 | 26 | 13 |
| 27 | 26 | Kendrys Morales | 25 | 24 | 31 | 28 |
| 28 | 19 | Paul Goldschmidt | 30 | 25 | 19 | 35 |
| 29 | 32 | Carlos Pena | 32 | 34 | 29 | 18 |
| 30 | NA | Bryan LaHair | 29 | 22 | 35 | 34 |
| 31 | 25 | James Loney | 31 | 30 | 25 | 38 |
| 32 | 37 | Adam Dunn | 37 | 17 | 40 | 37 |
| 33 | 38 | Daniel Murphy | 26 | 32 | 27 | 47 |
| 34 | 31 | Justin Morneau | 34 | 33 | 34 | 33 |
| 35 | 27 | Ryan Howard | 35 | 31 | 37 | 39 |
| 36 | 40 | Todd Helton | 42 | 39 | 42 | 25 |
| 37 | 29 | Brandon Belt | 33 | 40 | 33 | 43 |
| 38 | 34 | Mitch Moreland | 36 | 37 | 36 | 40 |
| 39 | 39 | Luke Scott | 38 | 43 | 39 | 32 |
| 40 | 33 | Mike Carp | 43 | 36 | 38 | 36 |
| 41 | 41 | Garrett Jones | 39 | 42 | 32 | 41 |
| 42 | 36 | Adam LaRoche | 40 | 38 | 45 | 31 |
| 43 | 28 | Justin Smoak | 47 | 46 | 44 | 22 |
| 44 | 47 | Chris Davis | 45 | 35 | 43 | 44 |
| 45 | NA | Ty Wigginton | 41 | 47 | 47 | 42 |
| 46 | 42 | Aubrey Huff | 46 | 44 | 41 | 48 |
| 47 | NA | Casey Kotchman | 50 | 45 | 46 | 45 |
| 48 | 45 | Brandon Allen | 48 | 49 | 48 | 46 |
| 49 | 46 | Anthony Rizzo | 44 | 50 | 49 | 49 |
| 50 | NA | Juan Rivera | 49 | 48 | 50 | 50 |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I understand that LaHair is striking out a lot, but his patience isn’t exactly terrible. Given his minor league record and his hot start, how is he 5 spots behind Goldschmidt, who hasn’t done much in the majors?
Walk rate doesnt correlate with batting average and this is a 5×5 ranking. With a 40% K% and a nigh .500 BABIP, LaHair’s about to see a .250esque RoS BA. And I dont believe in this kind of power, that’s how he got my ranking. And we worked independently.
LaHair would be much higher in a league that counted extra base hits and OPS, no?
Where would Hart fall on this list (assuming he gets 1b elig)?
So two of you would rather have James Loney over LaHair? O…k…
I think I’d put Hart in the 5, 6, 7 area.
The way Adam Dunn is swinging the bat, I would not be surprised if he leapfrogs about 15 people on the next list.
agree about Dunn, wish there was a way to bet on that…
Patiently waiting for Hosmer to explode…as of a week ago his xAVG was .311.
Something to keep in mind is that teams a deploying a heavy shift against Hosmer and it is driving down his value:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/5/8/3006970/eric-hosmer-vs-the-shift
i’ve always wondered whether the shift works. the three (contemporary) guys i think of who regularily face that kind of shift over multiple years are howard, teix, and papi.
can anyone think of others who regularly face a shift? i’d love to compare their avg with xavg pre and post shift deployment.
Ryan Howard and Carlos Delgado regularly faced the shift.
Carlos Pena
I’m curious which 4 guys dropped off the list.
What a great example of “Group Think” The fact that not one of you has Pujols lower than 2 is just shocking. You might as well have just skipped doing this update if Pujols is still #1, LaHair is still behind guys like Loney, Ike Davis, Youkilis, Sanchez and Lind, and Mike Morse, who probably won’t be ready to play for at leat another month, is ahead of Swisher.
(Thanks for letting me air my grievances)
Yeah, they all should’ve at least ranked Miggy ahead of Pujols.
Though Teixeira’s relative ranking compared to Mark Reynolds is also kinda nuts. They’re pretty damn similar, Reynolds’s 3B eligibility aside.
I’m kinda with you. It just depends on what these tiers represent. Do they represent a player’s value over the course of the year, or over the remainder of the season?
If it’s the former, then keeping a guy with a .226 wOBA as the #1 is a joke. Those at-bats are in the bag and they’ll drag his overall line down, no matter what he does for the rest of the season.
If it’s the latter, well, I’m still probably with you, but it’s more reasonable to keep Pujols at #1. Maybe he’ll go gangbusters for the rest of the year. I don’t think it’s likely, but that’s also a judgement call, and they’re keeping him at #1 based on their interpretation of the evidence.
rest of season ranks
To get my ranks, I took the average of their preseason projections and then weighted in how they have done so far this season. I am weighting the preseason rank at 7/12 of their stats and 2012 will by 5/12 at the end of the season. It is much less right now. It is an on going Marcel projection of the player’s talent.
Albert was barely #1 when I ran the numbers just over a week ago.
You should also look for discontinuities–places where there is reason to think a player is back or injured. I highly doubt Howard and Morneau are that close in the end of season WAR rankings.
I am taking the personal judgement out of my rankings.
Good luck with the crying baby! Have you learned how not to take it personally when you can’t get the baby to stop crying? That was kind of a major breakthrough for me.
No love for Yonder Alonso? I would probably rank him somewhere in the mid-40s.
Billy Butler isn’t 1B eligible in ESPN leagues. Any chance he gets 10 starts at the position during interleague play to become 1B eligible? I think he had 11 starts last year.
Royals will only have six games in NL parks; DH will be used for their six interleague games at home.
30 to 16 is a nice jump for E5, but I’m sort of surprised he isn’t a little bit higher. Not sure I see anything in his peripherals that indicate he can’t keep this up. Maybe not at the crazy pace he’s been on, but top 12 worthy…
E5’s home/road splits are crazy. I would believe more if his road numbers looked a little better.
Mmm… Well played, Atari. Forgot to check the splits…!
It was nice to see Phat Albert finally get off the schnied, but he isn’t the Albert of old. Look at his stats over the last three years and you’ll see why the Cardinals weren’t anxious to pony up big buck and extraordinary years for an quickly aging star. Pujols homers for last three years: 47, 42, 37. AVG over the last three years: .327, .312, .299. OPS over the last three seasons: 1.101, 1.010, .907. Clearly this man is aging before our eyes and the days of superstardom are behind him. In addition, the pressure he put on himself of trying to living up to the huge contract has wasted a month of his season. How you can list him any higher than #5 is beyond me.
Ichiro’s AVG from 2001-2003: .350, .321, .312. His AVG in 2004: .372. 3 year trends are not binding. The fact that Pujols worst OPS in the past 3 seasons is above .900 is good reason to put him above #5.
…And my great grandfather died at 96 despite smoking 2-3 packs a day. Giving me anecdotal evidence isn’t useful to the big picture. I showed you three significant places where Pujols is not the superstar he was. He belongs at #5 because M-Cab, Fielder, Votto and A-Gone will all outperform him this season and from here on out. Pujols was a pleasure to watch in his prime, but those days aren’t now and we are watching the sun set on his career and the next 9-1/2 seasons will be rather painful knowing what he once was.
I was just pointing out that saying his stats have declined for 3 years isn’t very convincing when his worst stats out of those 3 years are still elite. The conclusion I draw from the data you provided is that at his worst, Pujols is #5. At his best, he is #1 or #2. You seem to think the decline is age-related and the recent year is what we can expect. I don’t think we’ll see too much of a drop-off with age, and given that Adrian adjusted easily to AL pitching, I have a hard time projecting Pujols to have trouble in the next 5 months.
Obviously it will be painful to watch him play for his salary in 5 years, but this year I would put him behind only Miguel Cabrera.
I forget who said it but I think my expectations for Albert Pujols is that he is still a top tier player, rather than a player that was sooooo good he was his own tier type of player.
Taking these as stated, as ROS rankings I would have ranked Miggy #1, Votto #2 and Albert at #3. Anecdotally, we all saw Albert “pressing.” I think his plate discipline stats showcase that – a career-high 39.1% O-Swing percentage, in comparison with his career 21.8% show a player who had expanded his strike zone.
His batted ball profile are what give me the most optimism.
Career – 19.1% LD/ 40.9% FB /40.0% GB /13.0% IFFB/ 19.4% HR/FB
2012 – 23.8% LD / 38.6% FB / 37.6 % GB /13.2% IFFB / 2.6% HR/FB
His batted ball numbers are pretty much in line with his career. He is actually hitting line drives at an above career rate. I think his average is due for a major pickup. Once more of those flyballs start going out at his normal HR/FB rate you will see his HR numbers pick up. Unless, you believe he went from hitting HRs like Albert Pujols to David Eckstein overnight.
So Zimmerman’s complete lack of belief in Encarnacion drops him significantly in the rankings, eh? Can’t fathom how anyone could possibly turn down an Encarnacion for Carlos Lee offer in any league.
Of course you wouldn’t see someone refuse Edwin Encarnacion for Carlos Lee because such a thought is almost absurd. These rankings don’t seem to be reactionary enough.
Flat Hosmer….interesting
I own and I’m obviously not going to kick him to the curb after 1 month, but I was expecting some type of downgrade from you guys (Fangraphs writers)
Is Eric Hosmer that different from Freddie Freeman? Besides the massive chasm between them in terms of actual performance of course..
Morales is hitting 318 with 2 homers. The RBIs and runs ain’t great, but with the entire Angels lineup slumping that isn’t exactly his fault. I see the counting stats improving when and if Pujols, Kendrick, etc. get on track.
So, why, precisely, is he going down in the rankings? Behind Adam Lind, Gaby Sanchez, and Ike Davis, who have been putrid?
The only thing I can see is that Morales has been resting often against LHP, but even then, I’d rather have Morales in the lineup doing well 80% of the time than Ike Davis in the lineup sucking 100% of the time.
To further your point, Lind also sits regularly versus lefties, is hitting .186 with a .584 OPS, has a nagging back injury, and is hitting in the 8-hole (versus a righty!!).
Not a lot of thought put into the Lind ranking.
Back on the topic of LaHair, I think that its unfair to rank him so far down on this list. I get the high BABIP, and K%, but he also has a very high walk rate and has always had a high BABIP throughout his minor league and ever brief major career. Once he regresses this season, aren’t his numbers still going to be that of a top 20 1b?? Based on the season so far he would be ranked in the top 5, so even if he hit .250 RoS, that might line him up to his career avg of .298 for the season.
I’m no statistician (or spellchecker for that matter), but when looking at him compared to some other players with small MLB sample sizes, (Freeman, Hosmer, Goldschmidt, Davis, Morse) his numbers have been better across the board, and are quite similar to that of Michael Morse (one could even say a similar career path to the bigs also), yet he is ranked far below all of them.
Morse: 383G, 0.31 BB:K, .296/.356/.499, .346 BABIP, .203 ISO
LaHair: 91G, 0.42 BB:K, .298/.356/.513, .392 BABIP .215 ISO
…and Morse is ranked 17 spots higher and will likely not even play this year until AS break.
Just saying, guy has always had a high BABIP throughout minor leagues and has always had a good BB:K ratio despite high K% rate. What’s to say about a player taking their time to mature and develop, Bautista, Morse. Watching him play, he passes the eye test, dude looks locked in at the plate.
It’s just one of those things for me. He’ll be top twenty at the end of the season, yes, but that doesn’t mean the rest of this season will be top-20 material. .250 with another 15-20 home runs… I just think Morse will be better when he’s back. He’s banked enough that the end of season numbers will be nice, but he’s also banked those.
As for the BABIPs, everyone has a high BABIP in the minors. Bad defense.
Our rankings are always going to move slower than popular opinion on the fast-risers. We weight their careers and other big-picture factors, and breakout seasons happen. I see his debut on the list as a good thing, and I’m also glad I don’t need him at first base in any of my twelve-teamers, even if it would have been nice to have him for the first month.
Understandable. I hope he keeps it up, he has been a nice story thus far.
I have Hosmer and LaHair, in one of my leagues and I keep waiting for LaHair to regress and Hosmer to step it up, but they both keep surprising me. Can Hosmer step it up or are you worried about GB%, defense shift, etc. ???
BTW, that was my first post on Fangraphs!! Long time reader, really enjoy the different perspective, thanks.
Ok. I can see where you are coming from. Fortunately I have Adrian Gonzalez, so when LaHair regresses, hopefully A-Gon’s improvement will balance it out. This way I can be flexible with LaHair. Even with his hot start, I bench him against lefties.
His high line drive rate is a good sign, though. Obviously doesn’t completely account for his high BABIP, but should lead to an above average BABIP.
Where would some of the catchers who spend time at 1st slot in on this ranking? (Napoli, Posey?)
allen craig, anyone? even when berkman comes back, craig will still get a lot of playing time at 1B and also in the OF.
Adam Laroche is below guys who don’t even play everyday… Brandon Belt?? Not to mention Gabby Sahchez is 20 spots ahead of him whom I would take Laroche over in a heartbeat. Other guys ahead incluce James Loney (facepalm), Mike Carp, Daniel Murphy, Todd Helton…
Dunn is also criminally low.
No one’s even flinching on Adrian Gonzalez? It’s still deathly quiet about him, despite his major drop in ISO over the last 5 months of playing time.
I know, and Ive asked about it on chats here and elsewhere and I get ignored.
LaHair and Moreland are way too low on this list. Gabby Sanchez, excuse me?
I have an AL only lineup of Napoli, Pujols, Kinsler, Joey Bats, A Ramirez, Trout/Bourjos, Upton, Willingham and Butler.
Would you believe that lineup would be middle of the pack. Sheesh.
Surprised there’s not a bit more love for LaRoche. If healthy (big if), I don’t see why he can’t come near his career averages. That’s not going to make him a stud but it sure as hell is going to make him more valuable than James Loney.
I have Lahair in both of my competitive leagues. So tell me this, honestly and truly: would you actually trade him for any of the 10-15 guys ahead of him? If you had Lahair, would you sell high like that? I get all the way to Encarnacion before I see a deal I could stomach. Would you trade Lahair for Morse, and his injured lat? For Ike Davis and his generally badness? I’m in a shallow league where Ike is actually a free agent. Would you drop Lahair for Ike?
If I was cobbling together a 1B with LaHair, I’d find a way to get Ike on the roster yes. And if you look at our individual ranks, I’d be comfortable putting LaHair in anywhere from 22 to 35 just like our different experts have it. No way I’d put him higher than 22 though, obviously. If I was actually trading, I’d take someone like Morales for him in a second — but I’d also know that other people value LaHair higher than I do, so I’d take Morales back and get an upgrade elsewhere for my trouble. Move him ahead of some of the guys in the 30-35 range, sure.
I just keep coming back to the fact that with his strikeout rate, a bad BA is on the way. And he’ll look good at the end of the year because he had such a great April, but he’ll probably never have another year (month) like this one, considering his age. So it’s likely that he just had the best month of his career, and it’s our job to be less reactionary than public opinion, or else we’d Chris Shelton it up every other day.
I can’t do it. I can’t trade a guy who has flat-out carried my team for any of those 10 or so guys ahead of him, who seem quite likely to suck this year. I think maybe the way to go, if I’m going to sell high, is to pretend he’s a 10th or 11th ranked 1B and trade for a comparable starting pitcher.
Morales’ ZiPS ROS wOBA is .332. LaHair’s is .361. Though I will fully grant that this could be some kind of 5×5 thing I’m missing, since I have played linear weights for years.
“HOW DO I GET THIS BABY TO STOP CRYING.”
the 4 S’s. get the happiest baby on the block dvd. all the stuff on there really works. really.
These updates seem pretty conservative in terms of embracing guys who are having really good seasons as opposed to guys who were expected to be good at the beginning of the year. Votto’s having a good start, why not put him or prince or miggy up there?
In all likeliness Pujols won’t have a great season. He’s got some serious catching up to so in terms of offensive production and his year last year doesn’t exactly bode well for his year, his age 32 season. 30 home runs and a .300 is probably best case scenario at this point and that wouldn’t rank him as the best IB in baseball.
ah but these are rest of season rankings! so how many other 1Bs will hit 29 homers from here on out?
Lol how is Adam Dunn ranked below some of these guys? These rankings are pretty bad in my opinion.
How is Cuddyer one spot behind Kendrick in the second base rankings but 7 spots ahead of him in the first base rankings?
That is a great question. They are neck and neck for me with Cuddyer ahead more in first base, so I made this mistake too. Will remedy.