Archive for Prospects

Travis Wood Flirts With Perfection

On Saturday night, Cincinnati Reds lefty Travis Wood nearly became the third starting pitcher to twirl a perfect game during the 2010 season (well, technically fourth, but let’s not beat a dead horse). The 23-year-old went toe-to-toe with Roy Halladay, who achieved perfection on May 29th against the Marlins. Wood punched out eight, walked none and surrendered just one hit (a double to Carlos Ruiz to lead off the 9th) while going nine frames. Despite that superb effort, the Phillies prevailed in 11 innings.

Wood went to his fastball early and often — according to BrooksBaseball.net, he threw his 90 MPH four-seamer (topping out at 93 MPH) on 77 of his 109 pitches (71 percent), getting a strike with the pitch 71 percent of the time. He also mixed in some high-80’s cutters, low-80’s changeups and low-70’s curves. Overall, Wood threw strikes 68 percent of the time.

So, who is this guy, and what can we expect from him moving forward? Let’s take a closer look.

An Arkansas prep player, Wood was selected by the Reds in the second round of the 2005 draft. The 5-11, 165 pound port sider had a strong college commitment to Arkansas, but Cincy persuaded him to turn pro for $600,000. Wood’s size and delivery (Baseball America said he had some recoil at the end) scared some scouts, but his fastball piqued their interest. Here’s part of BA’s scouting report from 2005:

Wood is a long-term project, albeit an intriguing one because there aren’t many lefthanders who can reach 95 mph. His fastball sat at 88-91 mph for much of the spring, but he started making more frequent forays into the mid-90s as the draft drew closer. Wood isn’t tall, but he generates his velocity with a quick arm and athleticism. Wood hasn’t shown much aptitude for spinning a breaking ball, and his curveball ranges from below-average to decent. For the most part, he just rears back and blows fastballs by inferior competition.

Wood made his debut that summer, putting hitters to shame in 48.2 innings split between the Rookie Level Pioneer and Gulf Coast leagues (12.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.29 FIP). In 2006, he moved up to the Low-A Midwest League and continued to miss lots of bats — 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 4.01 FIP in 140 frames. After the season, BA noted that his low-to-mid-90’s fastball from high school was largely absent (he sat 87-91 MPH), but his changeup had developed into a true weapon. His breaking ball, on the other hand, remained a work in progress.

Unfortunately, Wood wouldn’t get much of a chance to improve in 2007. Bothered by a sore shoulder, Wood saw his fastball velocity dip into the mid-80’s at times, generally sitting in the high-80’s. He logged just 46.1 innings in the High-A Florida State League, with 10.5 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 4.37 FIP. Baseball America, which rated him as the third-best prospect in the Reds’ system before 2006 and number six prior to 2007, dropped him down to 21st leading up to the 2008 campaign.

2008 did little to redeem his standing within the organization. Opening the season back in the FSL, Wood performed decently — he whiffed 7.9 per nine innings, walked 4.1 per nine and served up 0.4 HR/9. His FIP in 46.2 innings was 3.48, and his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94. But a promotion to the Double-A Southern League proved difficult. His K rate declined (6.5 K/9), his walk rate ballooned to 5.4 BB/9 and he gave up a homer per nine frames. Wood’s ERA was a macabre 7.09 in 80 innings. While he wasn’t near that bad, a 4.92 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was nothing special. BA booted him off of Cincinnati’s top 30 list altogether.

Last year, the Reds sent him back to the Southern League. Wood responded with 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.15 HR/9 in 119 IP. His adjusted FIP was 3.98. Following a promotion to the Triple-A International League, Wood struck out 5.9 per nine, issued 3 BB/9 and had 0.7 HR/9. In 48.2 innings, his adjusted FIP was 4.23. Leading up to 2010, BA jumped Wood back up to seventh on the Reds’ list of top farm talents, saying that he remained healthy, regained his 88-91 MPH fastball velocity and added a cutter to his repertoire.

Back at Louisville this season, Wood thrived. Prior to his July 1st big league debut, Wood had 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 3.00 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP in 98 IP. After last night’s masterpiece, he’s got a 17/5 K/BB in 20.2 MLB innings, with a 3.99 xFIP. It’s a very small sample, but hitters have chased Wood’s stuff out of the zone 34.3% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

Before you get too excited about a rookie starter zooming out of the game and nearly making history, it’s important to remember that Wood has long been regarded as more of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation-type. BA mentioned that some scouts question his long-term durability, while John Sickels said Wood “looks more like a four/five starter based on his stuff.” He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 41 GB%) who’ll make his home starts in a park that, according to the Bill James Handbook, increased home run production by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009.

Per Minor League Splits, Wood’s performance at Louisville this season equates to a 4.58 major league FIP, with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. CHONE’s rest-of-season-projection is similar — a 4.58 neutralized ERA, with 7.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. Should Wood remain in the major league rotation, those forecasts look about right to me — near perfecto aside, he’s more of a serviceable big league arm than a future star.


Hudson Poised To Replace Peavy

After a sluggish start, Jake Peavy has pitched near the level that should have been expected during his first full season on the South Side of Chicago. In the DH league and residing in a park in which more fly balls become souvenirs, Peavy has 7.82 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 107 innings. Peavy may well be done for the year, however, as he suffered a detached latissimus dorsi muscle. With Peavy shelved, the White Sox may turn to top pitching prospect Daniel Hudson. Hudson hasn’t been named the guy to take Peavy’s scheduled Sunday start yet, but the club did pull him off the Futures Game roster.

Hudson, 23, was a fifth-round draft pick in the 2008 draft. Along with 13th-rounder Dexter Carter (who was actually part of the Peavy swap with San Diego), Hudson gave the White Sox a pair of sleeper prospects from Old Dominion. At the time Hudson was selected, Baseball America noted his sturdy 6-4, 220 pound frame frame, low-90’s velocity and promising secondary stuff. They did voice some concern about his throwing motion — Hudson was described as having “a long arm stroke in the back and a whipping sidearm motion through his release point,” which BA said led to life on his fastball but also inconsistent command.

After picking apart younger players in the Rookie-Level Pioneer League during the summer of 2008 (11.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 2.81 FIP in 69.2 IP), Hudson made his full-season debut in the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2009. He didn’t stay there long, though — the right-hander zipped through Chicago’s farm system, appearing and dominating in the High-A Carolina League, Double-A Southern League and the Triple-A International League.

In 147.1 combined frames, Hudson whiffed 10.1 batters per nine innings, walked 2.1 per nine, served up 0.3 HR/9 and posted a 2.29 FIP. According to Minor League Splits, his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 2.90. Hudson’s overall line equated to a 3.60 major league FIP, per the same site. In September, Hudson completed his meteoric rise by reaching the big leagues. He pitched 18 innings for the White Sox, with a 14/9 K/BB ratio and a 5.62 xFIP.

Following that ’09 season, Hudson earned some prospect accolades. Baseball America named him the 66th-best prospect in the game, praising his 91-93 MPH heat and above-average changeup, while also mentioning that his low-80’s slider showed some promise (he also mixes in the occasional slow curve). John Sickels graded him a B+ prospect, calling Hudson a personal favorite.

With Freddy Garcia re-signing with the Pale Hose and the rest of the team’s starters remaining healthy (until now), Hudson has spent the entire season back at Triple-A Charlotte. Logging 93.1 innings, he’s got 10.4 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 2.90. Hudson’s work with the Knights translates to a 4.51 big league FIP, with 8.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. CHONE’s updated rest-of-season projection for Hudson is similar — a 4.60 neutralized ERA, with 7.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9

The draft steal has shown an impressive ability to fool hitters, and he has shown solid control to boot. What’s concerning for fantasy owners is how Hudson’s fly ball tendencies (42.1 GB% in ’09, 40.7 GB% this season) will play in U.S. Cellular Field. If he does indeed get the major league call, expect Hudson punch out batters at a healthy clip, keep the walks at a reasonable level and serve up his far share of homers.


Promotion Watch: J.P. Arencibia

With the Blue Jays in the middle of their annual fade from contention (16-24 since May 20th), there’s a very real chance that the team will look to sell high on All Star John Buck and his career (.351 wOBA, 1.4 WAR) year. He’s scheduled to become a free agent after the season and is dangerously close to falling out of Type-B status, meaning he could walk with Toronto receiving nothing in return. They already have a competent backup in Jose Molina, but more importantly, they have a big time prospect mashing in Triple-A.

J.P. Arencibia, the 21st overall pick in the 2007 draft, is currently hitting .317/.366/.641 with 26 doubles and 21 homers in 306 plate appearances at Las Vegas, his second season at the level. He’s performing better away from hitter friendly Cashman Field (.365/.403/.730), and MinorLeagueSplits.com has his park neutralized batting line at .301/.350/.605, obviously still stellar. It’s quick the rebound for Arencibia, who hit just .236/.284/.444 at the same level and in the same park last season.

The former Tennessee Volunteer dropped out of Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list this season after they ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game rior to the 2009 season. Our own Marc Hulet didn’t lose the faith, ranking Arencibia as the game’s 86th best prospect this March. The crew at BA said the 24-year-old’s “swing is long and his bat speed is ordinary,” but he still “could provide 20-25 homers on an annual basis and solid defense.”

Even if it comes with the caveat of a .230 or .240 AVG, a backstop that smacks 20 homers has plenty of fantasy value. Miguel Olivo has always seemed to find a fantasy home despite a similar skill set, right down to the hacktastic approach. In fairness, Arencibia boasts a career high walk rate this year and has steadily improved ever so slightly in that department through the years, but I don’t think we’ll ever see even a 50 walk season out of him.

If you’re hurting for a catcher, especially in an AL-only setup or a deep mixed league, Arencibia’s a great guy to stash on the bench for the inevitable call up. At the very least, I would expect the Jays to bring him up in September as an audition for next year’s starting job.


Promotion: Josh Bell

Baltimore Orioles placed DH/OF Luke Scott (left hamstring) on the DL; recalled 3B Joshua Bell from Triple-A Norfolk.

It’s unclear at this point how long Bell will be in the majors — Felix Pie (back) will soon be activated from the DL, and the Orioles claim there’s no connection between Bell’s promotion and a transaction involving Ty Wigginton or Miguel Tejada. Whether this is a cup of coffee or something more substantive, Bell’s the best position prospect in the system not named Manny Machado. The 23-year-old was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers (along with RHP Steve Johnson) last July for LHP George Sherrill.

A 6-foot-3 switch-hitter, Bell was originally a fourth-round selection out of Florida in the 2005 draft. At the time he was drafted, Baseball America commended his plus power and strong arm, while noting disappointment amongst scouts that he didn’t firm up his soft frame. Bell bashed in rookie ball in ’05 and 2006 (a combined .312/.380/.486 in 454 plate appearances). In 2007, he hit .271/.331/.444 in 517 PA taken mostly in the Low-A Midwest League (he got a late-season promotion to the High-A California League). Bell walked 8.1% of the time, punched out 27.1% and had a .173 Isolated Power.

Prior to the 2008 season, Bell shed 30 pounds from his burly build. He got off to a .273/.373/.455 start in 220 PA in the Cal League, drawing ball four 14.1%, whiffing 25.6% and posting a .182 ISO in a favorable offensive environment. Unfortunately, Bell suffered a right knee injury that required surgery, ending his season in late May. He returned to the field and raked in 2008, however — in 518 PA split between the Double-A Southern League (Dodgers) and Eastern League (O’s), Bell batted .295/.376/.516, with a 11.8 BB%, 21.9 K% and a .221 ISO.

Heading into 2010, Baseball America rated Bell as the second-best prospect in the Baltimore system. So did Marc Hulet, noting that former Dodgers pick possessed “an intriguing mix of power and patience.” John Sickels rated Bell fourth in the Orioles’ organization, regarding him “more as a solid regular than a future star.”

At Norfolk this season, Bell hit .266/.311/.455 in 309 PA. His plate discipline was off-kilter, as he has walked just 5.8% while striking out 26.2%. Bell still hit for power, however, with a .189 ISO. Before the season began, ZiPS projected that he’d bat .242/.316/.396 in the majors. CHONE’s updated July projections predict Bell will put up a .244/.301/.398 triple-slash as an Oriole.

Bell’s low Triple-A walk rate is worth watching, though he does have a track record of working the count well. Setting that aside for the moment, two questions remain regarding his prospect status. First, can he play third base capably? Bell’s TotalZone defensive ratings have ranged from poor to brutal, while Baseball America’s scouting reports indicate that he’s now passable after being a butcher in years past. Second, is he really a switch-hitter? According to Minor League Splits, Bell holds a career .300/.366/.509 line batting from the left side, but just a .243/.322/.365 triple-slash as a righty batter. Some have suggested that Bell should give up switch-hitting, with the thinking being that his weak right-handed stroke hurts him to the extent that he’s worse off even if he has the platoon advantage.

Assuming he hasn’t suddenly become a hacker, Bell has the profile of an eventual quality big league hitter. He’s worth a pickup in AL-only leagues, but I wouldn’t recommend him strongly in mixed formats. We don’t know how long he’ll be in the majors, and Bell’s jumpy Triple-A line suggests that he could have some problems getting acclimated to facing big league pitching.


Promotion Watch: Brett Wallace

It’s not common to see a highly regarded prospect traded twice less than two years after being drafted, but that’s exactly what happened to now Blue Jays’ farmhand Brett Wallace. As you know, the Cardinals shipped him to Oakland in last year’s Matt Holliday deal, and they turned around and flipped him to Toronto in the third leg of the Roy Halladay trade this winter. Regardless of where he’s been playing, Wallace has done what he’s always done: flat out rake.

After hitting a combined .293/.367/.455 with 20 homers and 26 doubles across two levels and three teams last season, Wallace is mashing to the tune of .301/.363/.507 for Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate this year. With 14 homers and 20 doubles, he’s not far off from last season’s totals in 261 fewer plate appearances. It’s worth noting that the Pacific Coast League is a hitter friendly environment in general, especially where Wallace is playing in Las Vegas. MinorLeagueSplits.com has his park adjusted triple-slash line at .288/.351/.484, still outstanding.

The bat has never been an issue with Wallace. Baseball America said he “has outstanding bat control and knows how to get in favorable counts where he can do the most damage, allowing him to project for 20 homers per year despite not having outstanding raw power” when they named him the game’s 27th best prospect before the season. The question has been about position ever since he played at Arizona State, though the move to Toronto has cleared that picture up. After years of trying to fake it at third, Wallace has played first base exclusively since the trade (save for the occasional DH assignment) and figures to do so in the long run.

The good news is that Wallace retains 3B eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, where he’s owned in just 1% of leagues. Obviously he hasn’t been called up yet, so anyone that does own him is likely in a deep keeper league looking towards the future. The Blue Jays are slowly fading out of contention in the ultra-competitive AL East, having gone 11-15 this month and 13-20 dating back to May 20th. Incumbent first baseman Lyle Overbay is having a simply dreadful year, checking in at -0.1 WAR through the team’s first 77 games. He’s scheduled to become a free agent after the season, so Toronto could simply cut bait and designate Overbay for assignment if they don’t get lucky and find a trade partner infatuated with name recognition. Point is, the first base job can open up for Wallace at any time, especially now that we’re past all the service time milestones and the team has basically acquired another year of cost control.

CHONE predicted a .252/.306/.401 batting line with 16 doubles and 23 homers in 489 at-bats for Wallace this year, but he’s obviously not going to meet that playing time projection. The triple-slash projection isn’t unreasonable for a rookie in a division packed to the gills with power pitching, but that doesn’t make Wallace any less of a fantasy option, especially with 3B eligibility. He’s a must have in a keeper league, and definitely has value for the rest of 2010 in any league assuming a late-July promotion (at the latest).


Branyan Back to Seattle

Seattle Mariners acquired 1B/DH Russell Branyan from the Cleveland Indians for OF Ezequiel Carrera and SS Juan Diaz. Cleveland will either pay what’s left of Branyan’s $2 million salary or send the M’s a PTBNL.

Branyan wasn’t acquired as part of some last-ditch effort to climb back into the AL West race — the Mariners are 14 games back of Texas and have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Rather, Seattle brought the 34-year-old slugger back, in GM Jack Zduriencik’s words, “to give our team every opportunity to be as productive as possible this season, while not harming the long-term plan for the franchise.” Collectively, Mariners first basemen have a major league-worst .260 wOBA in 2010.

Last year, Branyan turned in the best season of his career in the Pacific Northwest. Getting regular playing time, the lefty batter mashed to the tune of .251/.347/.520 in 505 plate appearances and compiled 2.8 WAR. His wOBA was .368, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA was 29 percent above average (129 wRC+). Unfortunately, a bulging disk in Branyan’s back ended his season in late August.

He signed a one-year deal with the Indians this past winter, with a $5 million mutual option for the 2011 season. Branyan began the year on the DL with continued back woes, but he has hit slightly above expectations since returning to the lineup in late April. He’s got a .263/.328/.491 line in 190 PA, with a .355 wOBA and a 122 wRC+ (CHONE and ZiPS both projected a .348 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ prior to the start of the season).

Now that Cleveland has said see you in another life, brotha to Branyan for a fourth time, first base is Matt LaPorta’s spot to lose. The seventh overall selection in the ’07 draft, LaPorta was supposed to be the Tribe’s big prize in the July 2008 CC Sabathia deal. However, LaPorta’s monstrous minor league line (.296/.390/.563, 10.7 BB%, .267 ISO) has given way to a disastrous .240/.301/.377 (.300 wOBA) showing in 300 big league PA over the 2009-2010 seasons. LaPorta was slowed by off-season surgeries on his left hip and left toe, but his power was MIA prior to an early June demotion to Columbus. His career ISO is .137.

It’s just 300 PA split over two years, so we shouldn’t let a half-season’s worth of trips to the plate serve as some definitive judgment of LaPorta’s abilities. Still, his rest-of-season ZiPS (.257/.329/.414, .331 wOBA) is thoroughly uninspiring. He’s in his mid-twenties and down the defensive spectrum. LaPorta will need to significantly outperform that projection to be a useful starter, much less a star.

In addition to giving an erstwhile top prospect a shot at redemption, shipping out Branyan netted the Indians Carrera and Diaz. Carrera, 23, was part of the December ’08 three-team extravaganza involving the Mets (his original club), M’s and Indians. The lithe lefty batter ranked as the 15th-best talent in the Mariners’ system prior to 2010, per Baseball America. The Venezuelan-born Carrera piqued the interest of prospect types last season by batting .337/.441/.416 in the Double-A Southern League. He didn’t show much power (.079 ISO), and his BABIP was .407. But even so, he worked the count very well (14.6 BB%) while earning praise for his center field defense.

Moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2010, Carrera has a .268/.339/.315 triple-slash in 243 PA. Perhaps with pitchers realizing that the worst outcome of giving Carrera a pitch in the zone is a seeing-eye single (.047 ISO), his walk rate has fallen to 8.2%. Odds are, Carrera carves out a career as an extra outfielder who can cover the gaps. His fantasy value might be zilch, though — while he swiped twenty-plus bags each season from 2006-2009, Carrera’s career SB success rate is just 68.9%.

Diaz, 21, is shortstop signed by the M’s out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. The 6-3, 180 pound switch-hitter has put together a .299/.347/.434 line at high-octane High Desert of the High-A California League over the past two years. He didn’t rate among Seattle’s top 30 prospects leading up to 2010.


Viciedo joins the ChiSox

The White Sox boast a legitimate MVP candidate in Alex Rios (3.4 WAR) and the mammoth production of Paul Konerko (.417 wOBA), but their offense as a whole has largely underperformed. They have a .322 team wOBA, which tends to happen when you have seven players with sub-.320 OBP’s in the lineup as Chicago did yesterday.

Kenny Williams shook things up a little bit following last night’s win over Pittsburgh, replacing Jayson Nix and his .227 wOBA with hot shot third base prospect Dayan Viciedo. The Cuban defector signed a $10M big league deal before the 2009 season, though his performance last year was generally underwhelming (.280/.317/.391 in 540 Double-A plate appearances). Baseball America noted that Viciedo “can drive the ball to all fields and possesses tremendous opposite-field power” before the season, and he started to deliver on that promise with a .290/.329/.525 performance at Triple-A this season.

He’s a third baseman in name only, but he already has fantasy eligibility at that position in Yahoo! leagues and we couldn’t care less about how many balls he misplays. CHONE projected a .243/.273/.367 batting line with 11 HR and 59 RBI in 431 PA this year, which accurately reflects his unwillingness to work the count (just 26 unintentional walks in 795 pro plate appearances). Baseball America also noted that Viciedo “sits on fastballs to the point where he often looks helpless against offspeed pitches,” which will be his undoing in the bigs if he can’t adjust.

Regardless, Viciedo will run into one occasionally and hit the ball into the people even without the plate discipline, especially at U.S. Cellular Field (which has inflated homerun output by about 25% over the last three years). Homers impact four fantasy categories, so there’s definite value here. The White Sox aren’t likely to put many men on base in front of him, so the RBI total will likely lag a bit, but you should be in the clear as long as you’re not targeting him as an every day third base solution. Chances are Viciedo will pick up first base eligibility at some point, and a little extra flexibility is always appreciated.

Part of me gets the Jeff Francoeur vibe here, meaning that Viciedo will tear things up for a few weeks, then fall back to Earth once the book gets out how to pitch him. Again, I have no evidence of this, but it always seems like these extreme plate indiscipline guys initially perform well before dropping off. Perhaps it’s confirmation bias, I don’t know. Either way, Viciedo can provide a little pop at a bench spot or as an injury fill in, but not much more beyond that.


Promotion Watch: Pedro Alvarez

With Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, Buster Posey, Neftali Feliz, and Carlos Santana now in the big leagues, just four of Marc’s preseason top ten prospects are left in the minors leagues. In all likelihood, the next mega-prospect to get the call will be Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates, and there are indications that he will join the team as soon as tomorrow.

If you’re reading this site, you’re no doubt familiar with Mr. Alvarez and what he can bring to the table. Baseball America describes him as having “tremendous raw power to all fields” with “good pitch-recognition skills,” but notes “can be caught off balance by breaking balls from lefthanders.” That last part is the biggest concern, because he’ll be playing in a division with Jaime Garcia, Ted Lilly, Manny Parra, Chris Narveson, Wandy Rodriguez, and Randy Wolf. Not exactly an awe-inspiring collection of southpaws, but enough that you’ll need a decent platoon partner.

Alvarez is hitting .280 with a stout .260 ISO in Triple-A this year, which are right in line with his career totals of .286 and .251, respectively. MinorLeagueSplits.com indicates a reverse split in a limited sample this year (1.073 OPS vs. LHP, .869 vs. RHB), but his career totals (.810 OPS vs. LHP, .971 vs. RHP) reflect Baseball America’s scouting report. Alvarez can swing and miss with the best of them, striking out in close to 28% of his minor league plate appearances.

CHONE projected a .231/.299/.400 batting line with 16 HR and 54 RBI in 403 plate appearances before the season, and that seems very reasonable if the Bucs are going to run him out there every day, lefthander or otherwise. If they platoon him, I’d expect something more along the lines of .250/.330/.450, though that’s nothing more than a hunch. I am concerned about all the strikeouts, because bush league strikeout totals do have some predictive value; Chris Davis struck out in close to 27% of his minor league at-bats, for example.

Even if it doesn’t happen tomorrow, the Pirates will inevitably call Alvarez up at some point this month. Pittsburgh has a dreadful offense (team .297 wOBA), so he won’t get much help and the RBI opportunities will be few are far between. The homerun potential alone makes him a worthy fantasy add, even moreso in deeper leagues. You’ll take a bit of a hit in AVG, so make sure you can mitigate at some other spots. Chances are Alvarez will have better trade value than true worth later in the summer based on hype and name recognition alone.


Deep Keepers: June 15

Eduardo Nunez, SS, New York (AL): After six seasons in the minors, Nunez broke out in 2009 at double-A. The right-hand hitting shortstop has followed that up with another solid performance in triple-A. Nunez, 23, is currently hitting .323/.364/.413 in 254 at-bats. He doesn’t have much power (.091 ISO) but he’s improved his base running and can now take full advantage of his above-average speed; he’s swiped 14 bases in 17 tries. Nunez lacks patience at the plate, as witnessed by his 5.2 BB%, but he also does not strike out much (12.9 K%). A good defensive player with a strong arm, the Dominican native could be a big league shortstop but it probably won’t come with the Yankees as he’s a solid commodity that could help bring in some veteran talent at the trade deadline.

Miguel Velazquez, OF, Texas: Off-the-field problems have slowed Velazquez’ ascent through the Rangers’ depth chart but he’s starting to make some real noise now. Currently playing in low-A ball, the outfielder is hitting .280/.353/.477 in 239 at-bats. He’s shown the ability to hit for a solid average and also possesses good power (.196 ISO) and slightly-above-average speed that has helped him nab 11 bases in 15 tries. Velazquez, 22, also has a strong arm and could eventually move from center field to right field as he fills out and slows down. It would be nice to see him challenged with a move to high-A ball.

Jarred Cosart, RHP, Philadelphia: Cosart won’t be a sleeper for long. A 2008 38th round draft pick out of a Texas high school as a two-way player, the right-hander slid in the draft due to signability concerns, but the organization made a smart move and gave him more than $500,000 to steal him away from the University of Missouri. Currently playing in low-A ball, the 20-year-old hurler has a 3.25 ERA and has given up just 48 hits and 15 walks in 63.2 innings of work. He has the desirable combination of a high strikeout total (73) and a high ground-ball rate (59%). His repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, a good curveball and a change-up.


Tabata to the Majors, Too

Pittsburgh Pirates recalled OF Jose Tabata from Triple-A Indianapolis.

Tabata, 21, is a polarizing prospect. His backers see a precocious talent who makes score of contact and possesses more athleticism than one would expect from his compact frame. Those more skeptical of Tabata’s upside point out uncertainty about his age and limited power potential.

Signed by the Yankees out of Venezuela for $550,000 in 2004, Tabata burst on to the prospect scene by showing an exciting blend of hitting skills and speed in A-Ball over the 2006 and 2007 seasons. As a 17-year-old in the Low-A South Atlantic League, he hit .298/.377/.420 in 363 plate appearances. He had decent strike zone control (8.3 BB%, 20.7 K%) and a pinch of power (.122 ISO), while swiping 15 bases in 20 attempts. In the High-A Florida State League in ’07, Tabata had a .307/.371/.392 triple-slash in 456 PA. He walked 7.3%, punched out 16.9% and had a .086 ISO, going 15-for-22 on the base paths.

Those numbers don’t stand out at first glance, but are more impressive when the context is considered. Tabata was (apparently) the same age as high school sophomore in ’06 and a junior in ’07, and the FSL is a pitcher-friendly circuit. Baseball America rated Tabata as the 27th best talent in the minors prior to 2007 and the 37th-rated prospect leading up to 2008.

That ’08 season wouldn’t be a banner one for him, though. Bumped up to Double-A, Tabata posted feeble numbers at the plate, angered the Yankees by leaving the park during an April game and tweaked his hamstring. He was shipped to Pittsburgh (along with Ross Ohlendorf, Daniel McCutchen and Jeff Karstens) that July for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. Tabata picked up the pace in the Eastern League after the trade, finishing the season with a .277/.345/.388 line in 442 PA. He walked 8.1%, struck out 17% and had a .111 ISO, with 18 SB and two CS. BA knocked him down its list somewhat, but Tabata still cracked the top 100 (#75).

Last year, the 5-11, 210 pound righty batter began the year back at Altoona. Though he was caught red-handed on the bases often (7 SB, 6 CS), Tabata hit .303/.370/.404 in 254 PA. His secondary skills were again mild (7.9 BB%, .111 ISO), but he punched out just 11% of the time.

Tabata was promoted to the Triple-A International League later that summer, and that’s where he opened 2010 as well. In 400 combined PA at the level, he owns a .296/.358/.419 line, with an 8.3% rate of free passes taken, a 14.8% K rate and a .123 ISO. Happily for fantasy folks, Tabata has recovered his base stealing prowess (29 SB, 8 CS, a 78.4% success rate).

Assuming the right hamstring cramp he suffered last night isn’t serious, Tabata figures to see a lot of playing time — Jeff Clement has been banished to Triple-A, and Garrett Jones will man first base more frequently.

His long-term value is hard to gauge, however. Is Tabata 21? Not even the Pirates seem to know for sure. Will he ever hit more than the occasional double? He doesn’t have a projectable frame, as he’s under six feet and has already filled out physically. Will his stolen base totals translate to the highest level? Tabata’s not a speed demon, with tick-above-average wheels. There are a wide range of possibilities here.

Tabata’s someone to watch in NL-only leagues, and he has some value in keeper formats. But keep in mind that there are a plethora of potential outcomes — he could be anything from a 21-year-old with room to develop offensively to a maxed-out 24-year-old who needs to play plus defense to be worthy of an everyday spot in the lineup.