Archive for Prospects

Minor To The Majors

When the Atlanta Braves selected Mike Minor seventh overall in the 2009 draft, some prospect pundits labeled the pick an uncharacteristically conservative move by an organization known for favoring high-upside prep players. A Vanderbilt product, Minor was regarded as a four-pitch lefty without a plus offering. He was expected to reach the majors in short order, but his ceiling wasn’t considered commensurate with what’s anticipated from a single-digit pick.

A little more than a year later, Minor has proven to be a fast mover. With Kris Medlen (UCL tear) possibly headed for Tommy John surgery, Minor will make his big league debut this coming Monday against the Houston Astros. But that’s not all — after a dominant minor league season, Minor has talent evaluators re-thinking his long-term potential.

At the time Minor was drafted, Baseball America described him as a soft-tossing southpaw who wouldn’t fool many pro hitters. Given the Commodores connection, Minor elicited comparisons to Jeremy Sowers:

Like Sowers, Minor has more pitchability than stuff, with a fastball in the 86-89 mph range and a plus changeup that grades as his best pitch. His other strongest attribute could be his pickoff move, a weapon he broke out repeatedly against Cuba last summer. Minor’s future may depend on his breaking stuff. He formerly threw a slider as his primary breaking ball, and at times it was an above-average pitch with depth. He showed he could throw the pitch for strikes or bury it. Minor added a solid curveball this fall and threw four pitches for strikes this spring, but some scouts think the curve has sapped some of the life off the rest of his offerings.

Minor signed for an above-slot $2.42 million bonus, then tossed 14 scoreless in the Low-A South Atlantic League with a 17/0 K/BB ratio and one run allowed. He also got 16.2 innings of work in the Arizona Fall League, surrendering 10 runs with a 12/6 K/BB. According to BA’s J.J. Cooper, Minor averaged about 90.9 MPH with his heater in the AFL and topped out at 93.8 MPH.

In 2010, the 22-year-old opened the season with Mississippi in the Double-A Southern League. He was hardly the finesse, control-oriented hurler that most anticipated — Minor whiffed 109 batters in 87 innings pitched (11.3 K/9), walking 3.5 per nine and giving up 0.8 HR/9. While his 4.03 ERA didn’t stand out, that was due in large part to a .371 batting average on balls in play. Minor’s park-and-luck adjusted FIP, according to Minor League Splits, was 3.29.

It has been more of the same since he was promoted to the Triple-A International League — Minor’s got 10 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 and a 2.97 adjusted FIP in 33.1 frames with the Gwinnett Braves. He has been neutral in terms of ground ball/fly ball tendencies, with a 44.1 GB% between the two levels. Per Minor League Splits, Minor’s pitching at Mississippi and Gwinnett translates to 8.1 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 at the major league level.

It’s not just the numbers that are better than anticipated. Minor’s once-modest fastball is popping the mitt with more gusto. Last month, BA’s Jim Callis described the changes in Minor’s stuff:

He’s ditched the curve, and his stuff is sharper. I don’t think anyone was anticipating his velo jump, not even the Braves, but I got several reports he’s hitting 95-96 mph consistently. As a result, he’s not quite throwing as many strikes as he used to. For me, he’s more of a No. 3 starter now [with] a chance to be a 2 if he maintains the velo and improves his control. When he was drafted, I thought he was a No. 4 at best.

With more zip on his fastball, as well as a quality changeup and solid slider, Minor ranked got an honorable mention on BA’s mid-season top 25 prospects list.

Given the large disparity between Minor’s college and pro scouting reports, it will be interesting to see if he maintains his new found velocity over the long haul. The spike in punch outs has come with more walks, but the trade-off has certainly been a net positive. At the very least, we can safely, thankfully leave that Sowers comp in the rear view mirror. Minor is worth picking up in most every league, as his spruced-up stuff gives him bat-missing ability few thought he’d possess.


Recent Promotions: Arencibia & West

A day late, but here’s some recent call ups to consider for your squad…

J.P. Arencibia | C | Blue Jays | 1% owned

The Jays lost starting catcher John Buck to the disabled list after the backstop took a foul tip off his right hand today, opening up a laceration on his thumb (don’t they teach you to keep your throwing hand behind your back?), and have replaced him by calling up one of their best prospects in Arencibia. The powerful yet free swinging 24-year-old hit a (park adjusted) .291/.348/.601 with 31 homers in 420 plate appearances this season, raising his homer total to 79 since the start of 2008.

I wrote a little bit about Arencibia earlier this month, noting that his likely homerun production makes him a viable fantasy option even if he provide little in terms of AVG (and OBP). Nothing’s changed, except now he has a clear path towards some playing time for the next two weeks or so.

Sean West | SP | Marlins | 0%

You are forewarned, I’m a bigger West fan that most. Something about a 6-foot-8 lefty with a fastball in the low-90’s excites me. He followed up last season’s 4.49 FIP (103.1 IP) with strong peripherals in Triple-A this season (7.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 43.9% grounders), and now gets the chance to prove himself in the place of the departed Nate Robertson. West allowed a pair of homers and struck out four Phillies in five innings of work against the yesterday, and going forward he’s clearly just a matchup guy. (R) ZiPS doesn’t like West at all, for what it’s worth (5.32 FIP, 6.62 K/9).

His next two starts come at home against the Cards and in Cincinnati, but after that he lines up to face the Pirates and Mets (in CitiField). Plan ahead, and you might end up stealing a W and a few ERA points.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Promotion: Peter Bourjos

According to Tom Krasovic of AOL Fanhouse, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will call up OF Peter Bourjos from Triple-A Salt Lake. Bourjos might not crack the lineup on a regular basis, but let’s take a look at his long-term fantasy value.

Bourjos, 23, was selected in the tenth round of the 2005 amateur draft. The Arizona prep product intrigued scouts with his scorching speed and ability to cover wide swaths of territory, and the Angels opened up the check book to give him an above-slot $325,000 signing bonus. Bourjos batted .292/.354/.472 in 279 Pioneer League plate appearances during his ’06 pro debut, stealing 13 bases and getting caught five times. Following the season, Baseball America called him an “easy, graceful runner” and said he had more power than his 6-1, 180 pound frame suggested, but BA also called his strike-zone control “crude.”

Unfortunately, Bourjos wouldn’t get a full season’s worth of reps in 2007 to work out the kinks in his plate discipline. The righty batter suffered a left hand injury that he initially tried to play through, but he finally gave in and had surgery to repair a ruptured ligament in May. In 270 PA in the Low-A Midwest League, Bourjos put up a .274/.335/.426 line, with a 7.4% walk rate, a 22.4 K% and a .152 ISO. He nabbed 19 bases, though he was caught stealing nine times as well. Talent evaluators continued to question whether Bourjos’ bat would play at the upper levels of the minors. “His approach,” BA said, “vacillates from at-bat to at-bat, he’s busy in his setup and he often lacks balance through his swing.”

The next season, Bourjos was bumped up to the High-A California League. He hit .295/.326/.444 in 545 PA, and he was a monster on the base paths (50-for-60 in SB attempts, good for an 83.3% success rate). Bourjos just about never walked (3.5 BB%), while K’ing 18.9% and posting a .149 ISO. The Cal League is a great place to hit, so Bourjos’ park-and-luck-adjusted line was a little less impressive at .280/.311/.429. While again praising Bourjos’ plus defense and base-stealing talents, BA said:

There are still questions about Bourjos’ bat. He has a funky swing and tough he showed improvement, he still chases pitches out of the zone and rarely walks. He’ll need to show a much more patient approach to realize his potential as a leadoff hitter.

In 2009, Bourjos made some strides in terms of not getting himself out. The speedster slashed .281/.354/.423 in 504 Double-A Texas League PA, drawing ball four 9.7%, whiffing 17.6% and compiling a .142 ISO. On the bases, he was 32-for-44 (a 72.3% success rate). A ligament tear in his left wrist necessitated off-season surgery, but that didn’t put much of a damper on a season in which he progressed at the plate. Baseball America was most enthusiastic about Bourjos’ prospect status, ranking him #97 on the publication’s top 100 list. John Sickels graded him as a B- talent. Bourjos didn’t make Keith Law’s top 100.

At Salt Lake of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Bourjos has hit .314/.364/.498 in 455 PA, with 27 SB in 32 tries. His park-and-luck adjusted line, by contrast, is .289/.341/.467. Those strike zone gains didn’t make the trip with him to the PCL, as Bourjos as a 5.3 BB%. He has struck out 18.9% and has a .184 ISO, the product of lots of triples (twelve) and a park-aided 13 home runs.

Chances are, Bourjos would struggle mightily if given everyday ABs in the big leagues. His major league equivalent line is .255/.294/.401 according to Minor League Splits, and CHONE projects him for a .255/.300/.375 showing. It’s worth noting, however, that Sean Smith’s Total Zone adores Bourjos’ defense. That could come into play, considering the Angels’ outfielders have been a collective 18 runs below average, according to Ultimate Zone Rating.

Bourjos isn’t likely to have much fantasy value right now. His wheels make him attractive to fantasy owners in the long-term, and his run-saving D gives him a good chance to carve out a starting role in the not-too-distant future. It’d surely be appreciated, though, if he could stop hacking so much.


Jon Jay Gets Expanded Play

With Ryan Ludwick headed to San Diego as part of a three-team swap that netted St. Louis Jake Westbrook, Jon Jay’s role with the Cards will expand. The 25-year-old’s big league career is off to a scorching start — in 130 plate appearances, Jay’s bat has already been worth +11 runs. What’s the Chief Justice’s fantasy value? Let’s take a look.

Jay was selected out of Miami in the second round of the 2006 amateur draft. At the time, Baseball America described the lefty hitter as “a classic tweener outfielder who doesn’t profile as an everyday player on a championship club.” BA lauded his plate approach, but lamented the lack of “leverage and loft” in his swing. Jay began his pro career in the Low-A Midwest League that summer, and he did what you’d expect a second-team All American to do against less experienced hurlers — he raked (.342/.416/.462 in 268 PA).

Unfortunately, Jay wouldn’t get much of a chance to build upon that robust beginning — in 2007, he hit the DL three times. Jay was shelved twice with a shoulder injury and also became a spectator due to a wrist ailment. His hitting suffered, as Jay put up a .265/.328/.387 line in 253 PA split between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Texas League. He walked in 6.3% of his PA, while striking out 19.6% and posting a .122 ISO. BA noted that scouts were skeptical about his ability to hit at the upper levels of the minors, disliking his “quirky hand pumps and bat waggles at the plate.”

The next season, however, Jay’s prospect status recovered. In 491 PA spent mostly in the Texas League (he got a late-season promotion to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League), the Founding Father batted .312/.382/.463. Jay’s walk rate climbed to a decent 9.2%, whiffing 13% and improving his ISO to 151. He returned to the PCL in 2009, where hit slashed .281/.338/.394 in 564 PA. Prior to getting the big league call-up in late April, Jay hit .321/.394/.491 in 191 PCL PA. His overall line in 819 PA at the Triple-A level is .295/.356/.424, with a seven percent rate of free passes taken, a 13.2 K% and a .129 ISO.

Jay’s got a smoldering .382/.433/.583 big league line and a .425 wOBA, but it’s wise not to get overly excited. Putting aside that more than 43% of his balls put in play have fallen for hits so far, Jay’s minor league track record isn’t all that distinguished. He’s not especially patient at the dish, and as his .131 league ISO and near-50% ground ball rate on the farm suggest, his power potential is limited. With St. Louis, he might eventually end up platooned with Allen Craig — Jay’s career line against lefties in the minors is .259/.336/.349 (Craig’s is .303/.358/.542).

That’s not to say that Jay is without his uses, as Sean Smith’s Total Zone suggests Jay would be a plus defender in an outfielder corner, and CHONE projects that he’ll hit .288/.347/.425 in the majors. For fantasy purposes, Jay looks more like a solid major leaguer who’ll need a caddy against same-handed pitching than a breakout star.


New Astro: Brett Wallace

For a player taken with the 13th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Brett Wallace sure has spent a lot of time packing suitcases. The Arizona State Sun Devil star was originally selected by the Cardinals, but he was shipped to the A’s as part of a trade for Matt Holliday last July. Oakland then swapped him to the Blue Jays this past off-season in a rare prospect challenge trade, with outfielder Michael Taylor going to the green and gold. And yesterday, the Astros acquired Wallace in exchange for Anthony Gose, a 19-year-old OF prospect just picked up in the Roy Oswalt deal with the Phillies. In Houston, “The Walrus” looks like the heir apparent to Lance Berkman at first base.

Wallace was a third baseman in college, and he mostly manned the hot corner in the minors up until this season. But scouts panned his work there (Baseball America said he “lacks the agility and athleticism for the position”), and Sean Smith’s Total Zone rated him as a poor fielder. The stoutly-built 23-year-old shifted to first base with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate in 2010. It’s not much of an exaggeration to say that Wallace’s value lies entirely in the quality of his bat. So, how good is that bat?

Here’s what Baseball America had to say about his offensive ability prior to the ’08 draft:

Many see the best natural hitter in the West. Wallace has a strong swing with above-average bat speed; his swing path stays in the zone a long time and he has outstanding plate discipline…Those that don’t care for him cite his body and the short careers of players built similarly, such as Bob Hamelin. Wallace’s bat should get him drafted in the first round regardless, and most scouts give him at least above-average raw power grades.

Wallace hit the ground running in pro ball in 2008, putting up a .337/.427/.530 line in 234 plate appearances spent mostly in the Low-A Midwest League (he also logged some time in the Double-A Texas League). The lefty hitter walked in 8.1% of his PA, punched out 19.3% and had a .193 ISO. Wallace didn’t draw a ton of walks and he did benefit from a .400+ BABIP, but it was still a quality debut.

Since then, Wallace has hit well, though it would be difficult to say that he has lived up to the “hitting machine” label often bestowed upon him. Last season, he batted a combined .293/.367/.455 in 600 PA taken in Texas League and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League (for the affiliates of both the A’s and Cardinals). He worked a free pass just 7.8%, while striking out 21.8% and posting a .162 ISO. In 2010, Wallace has hit .301/.359/.509 in 423 PCL plate appearances. Wallace has walked 6.4%, whiffed 21.6% and holds a .208 ISO. It’s worth noting that Cashman Field, home of the Las Vegas 51’s, is a fantastic offensive environment. According to Minor League Splits, Wallace’s park-adjusted line is .287/.349/.479.

Considering Wallace’s limited positional value, I think it’s fair to say that his lumber to date has been somewhat underwhelming. Though BA once praised his plate approach, Wallace hasn’t drawn all that many walks. And that above-average raw power hasn’t really been on full display. It’s not that he projects poorly in the majors, but his secondary skills don’t exactly stand out a position with a cumulative .270/.355/.460 triple-slash in 2010. Wallace could become an average starter at first base, perhaps a tick above that if you’re optimistic. But I don’t see a future offensive juggernaut here.


Phillies summon Domonic Brown

Shane Victorino hit the disabled list earlier today with a strained abdominal muscle suffered when he dove back into first base last night, so now the Phillies are replacing him with the best prospect in baseball: outfielder Domonic Brown. Most of us expected Brown to get the call once the team traded Jayson Werth, but Victorino’s injury makes such a deal unlikely. Werth will instead shift to center to take over for the Flyin Hawaiian, and Brown will assume everyday rightfield duties. He’s in the lineup tonight, batting sixth.

Both Baseball America and Keith Law ranked Brown as the game’s best prospect at midseason, and with good reason. The 607th overall pick in the 2006 started his career as a tall and lanky 18-year-old that oozed athleticism but needed to learn how to convert his physical gifts into baseball skills. Brown has done that and then some, improving his performance each year of his career and with each climb up the ladder. Here’s his progression, using basic triple-slash stats:

2006: .214/.292/.265 in rookie ball
2007: .299/.363/.415 in mostly short season ball
2008: .291/.382/.417 in Low-A
2009: .299/.377/.504 with ~60% of his PA in High-A and ~40% in Double-A
2010: .327/.391/.589 with ~70% of his PA in Double-A and ~30% in Triple-A

“A free swinger as an amateur, Brown has developed a solid eye at the plate and recognizes pitches well,” said the BA gang when they ranked him the game’s 15th best prospect before the season. “The biggest question on Brown’s upside revolves around how much power he’ll develop. Some Double-A Eastern League observers thought his power would be average at best and would limit him to hitting at the top of the lineup, rather than being a middle-of-the-lineup factor.” KLaw wasn’t as skeptical about his pop, saying Brown “has 30-plus homer potential” when he ranked him the 14th best prospect in baseball before the season. As you can see above, Brown has increased his ISO’s from .126 to .205 to .262 in each of the last three seasons, so the power is definitely coming.

The Phillies promoted their best prospect to Triple-A for the first time this season after he hit .318/.391/.602 at Double-A Reading in the first half, and the 22-year-old has hit .346/.390/.561 in 118 plate appearances since the move. His MLE sits at .289/.320/.456 this season (according to MinorLeagueSplits.com), though CHONE was a bit more pessimistic before the season, predicting a .248/.348/.303 line. I’d definitely expect more of the former, especially playing regularly in Citizen’s Bank Park. He’ll even steal some bases, averaging close to 25 SB per 500 plate appearances in his minor league life.

Brown has exhibited a bit of a platoon split in each season of his career except 2008, but that appears to be an outlier at this point. Generally speaking, it’s about a 100 point drop in OPS, which is tolerable for a guy with a bat like this. We’re not talking about an Andre Ethier (or worse, a Curtis Granderson) kind of split here. I’d probably sit him against the better lefties at least early on just until he gets his feet wet, but there’s no question that Brown will be a viable fantasy outfielder almost immediately. There’s plenty of help around him in the lineup, so he’ll have RBI opportunities, and there’s nothing blocking his playing time (except for Ben Francisco’s .318 wOBA).

Brown has already been gobbled up in 9% of Yahoo! leagues, so make sure you run out and grab him while you can. He could play his way into #2 outfielder status by next month, and obviously has the potential to be even better going forward for those of you lucky enough to have him in a keeper league.


Promotion Watch: Zach Britton

The Baltimore Orioles are in the process of breaking in a cadre of a highly-acclaimed pitching prospects. Brian Matusz in entrenched in the big league rotation, while Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta have struggled to translate their success in the minors to the highest level. Another blue-chip arm may soon make his major league debut — Zachary Britton could bump the oft-battered Brad Bergesen out of the rotation at some point. Even if Britton doesn’t get the call later this year, he’s a vital part of Baltimore’s rebuilding effort. Let’s examine his long-term value.

The O’s took Britton out of a Texas prep school in the third round of the 2006 draft. The 6-foot-3 lefty added lots of zip to his fastball during his senior year — Baseball America noted that his heater climbed from 86-87 MPH to 92-93 MPH — and he also possessed what BA called a “power curve.” Britton’s velocity did decline during his last few starts leading up to the draft, though. He tossed 34 innings in the Rookie-Level Appalachian League that summer, and he struggled to control the zone (5.6 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 5.41 FIP). After the season, BA said that Britton sat 86-90 MPH in the Appy League, though they predicted he’d crack the 90’s more frequently as his 180 pound frame filled out.

Baltimore took a cautious approach with Britton in 2007, assigning him to the short-season New York-Penn League. He had 6.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.1 HR/9 in 63.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Britton’s park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 3.95, and he generated ground balls at an impressive clip (64.5 GB%). Baseball America said that he showed “the live low-90’s fastball that made him a third-round pick,” while also developing a sharp slider in the instructional league.

In 2008, Britton enjoyed a breakout season in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Pitching 147.1 frames, he used his sinker/slider combo to strike out seven batters per nine innings, hand out 3 BB/9 and give up 0.5 homers per nine. Britton’s adjusted FIP was 3.92, and he maintained his Brandon Webb-like ground ball rate (63.8 GB%). The next year in the High-A Carolina League, Britton whiffed 8.4 per nine, walked 3.5 and coughed up 0.4 HR/9 in 140 innings. Scorching the earth with a 65 GB%, Britton posted a 3.37 adjusted FIP.

Leading up to 2010, Britton earned plenty of superlatives from scouting types. Baseball America named him the number 63 prospect in the game. John Sickels graded him as a B prospect. “Love the grounders, solid strikeout rate, I’m pro-Britton,” said Sickels. ESPN’s Keith Law was an even bigger fan, ranking Britton 25th on his top 100 list. Law liked Britton’s solid punch out rates and extreme ground ball tendencies, and noted the development of the lefty’s changeup:

Britton is a true sinker/slider pitcher with enough velocity to work as a starter and a potential out pitch in the slider to miss bats when he’s not getting ground balls. His sinker has solid-average velocity with legitimate plus sink, and he’ll flash a four-seamer up to 94. His slider — although not as consistent — flashes plus, and he’s willing and able to backfoot it to right-handed hitters, then throwing the sinker away to get a weak grounder or just a swing and miss. His changeup improved over the course of the season to the point that it’s an average pitch or better, eliminating a major concern for sinker/slider guys — a typical weakness against opposite-side hitters…He would slot in very nicely as a No. 2 starter behind Brian Matusz, or as an outstanding No. 3 behind Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Britton began the year with the Bowie Baysox of the Double-A Eastern League, where he posted rates of 7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 0.4 HR/9 in 87 innings. He continued to induce grounders like few others (64.1 GB%) while compiling a 3.44 adjusted FIP. Bumped up to the Triple-A International League, Britton has 5.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and nary a homer surrendered in 27.2 IP. The 22-year-old is — you guessed it — burning lots of worms with a 72.2 GB%, and his adjusted FIP sits at 3.47.

The chances of Britton getting ample major league innings this season are slim — the O’s aren’t playing for anything of consequence, and the southpaw is a little more than 30 frames away from his previous career high workload. In keeper leagues, though, Britton is an intriguing option. He’s not going to post elite K rates, but that’s mostly because he’s too busy getting batters to smack the ball into the dirt. Britton misses a solid number of bats, and his control has improved enough that it doesn’t figure to hinder his development. While Tillman and Arrieta get more attention, Britton might just be the better long-term buy.


Marlins call on Morrison

You’ve probably heard by now, but Marlins’ left fielder Chris Coghlan tore the meniscus in his left knee after hitting Wes Helms in the face with a shaving-cream pie following the his walk-off single on Sunday. He could be out up to eight weeks depending on whether or not surgery is required. Florida replaced Coghlan on the active roster by calling up one of the game’s very best prospects, first baseman Logan Morrison.

Morrison, 22, was declared the 18th best prospect in the game prior to the 2009 season by Baseball America before they ranked him 20th before this season. No. 20 in baseball was only good enough for No. 2 on the Marlins, who had some kid named Mike Stanton ahead of him, but that’s okay, we won’t hold it against him. “Morrison has the best plate discipline in the organization,” said the crew at BA of the lefty swinger. “He has a balanced, flat swing that enables him to keep his bat in the zone a long time. He has plus power and can put on a batting-practice show that nearly rivals those of Jacksonville teammate Mike Stanton.”

The scouting report sounds wonderful, and the minor league stats are just as impressive. He hit .332/.402/.494 in A-ball in 2008, then followed it up with a.277/.408/.439 performance last year, though he missed most of April and May with a broken bone in his right hand. The 666th overall pick in the 2005 draft has ratcheted it back up to his 2008 levels this year, hitting .313/.424/.502 almost exclusively in Triple-A. Aside from a pronounced split last season, Morrison hasn’t shown much weakness against lefthanders in the bush leagues.

A first baseman by trade, the Marlins have gotten Morrison some reps in left field in each of the last two seasons, which is where he’ll primarily play in the big leagues. Florida isn’t shy about sticking guys in left with little to no experience at the position, they did it with Coghlan just last year and with Miguel Cabrera back in the day. Thankfully we don’t have to worry about defensive value, just playing time.

The team has indicated that Morrison will share playing time in left with Emilio Bonifacio, depending largely on the pitching matchup. Bonifacio has a .286 career wOBA in 765 plate appearances (to his credit, it’s .314 this year), so I can’t imagine he’ll hold onto this job for long, not if Morrison proves competent against big league lefties. I’d give it two weeks or so before he’s playing every day.

CHONE projected a rock solid .264/.344/.409 batting line for Morrison before the season, and his MLE according to MinorLeagueSplits.com isn’t far off at .249/.346/.378. Morrison is a 1B by default in Yahoo! leagues, so it’ll take a week or two until he picks up OF eligibility as well. Even if he overshoots the projections and MLE a bit (say .275 AVG with a .160 ISO), Morrison still isn’t a top tier fantasy first baseman, but he’d make for a damn fine third outfielder. That value only increases in NL-only or deep leagues.

Morrison is in tonight’s lineup, batting second between leadoff hitter Hanley Ramirez and Gaby Sanchez (.368 wOBA), not a terrible place to hit. If he stays there, the RBI and runs scored opportunities should be plentiful.


Recent Promotions: Josh Bell

We’re well into July now and the trade deadline is right around the corner. The Orioles’ figure to move several pieces between now and then, with Ty Wigginton and Miguel Tejada getting the most face time on the trade rumor circuit. Whether or not they get moved within the next two weeks or during the August waiver period is a different story all together, but once those two are gone, the path will be clear for top prospect Josh Bell to get regular playing time for the O’s.

Bell was up with Baltimore earlier this month (a clean .200/.200/.200 batting line in 15 PA) before going back down to Triple-A to get some at-bats during the All Star break. He’s back now, but has mostly ridden the bench as the vets get showcased for their (eventual) new teams. Acquired in the George Sherrill deal, Baseball America ranked Bell as the team’s second best prospect before this season.

“[Bell] has above-average power and a good approach,” said BA’s write-up, “showing the ability to work counts to get on base.” His minor league track record backs it up; His career ISO above A-ball is a hefty .209 in 827 plate appearances. Despite being a switch-hitter, Bell has a considerable platoon split (.687 OPS vs. LHP, .875 vs. RHP), enough to garner whispers about becoming a full-time lefthanded hitter. Considering some of the power lefthanded starters in the AL East, that may not be such a good thing.

I’m not sure Bell has much to offer your team during the remainder of this season, so his value is primary tied up in keeper leagues. There’s enough power in his bat that 20 homers over a full season is very possible as soon as 2011, though he might not bring such a high average right away. The one thing he will be assured of in the future is playing time, with the O’s in full rebuild mode and Bell representing one of their core pieces. If Wigginton and Tejada get moved sooner rather than later, the O’s and fantasy owners alike will get a sneak preview the rest of the way.


Promotions: Wood & Maloney

The first place Cincinnati Reds called up a pair of lefthanded starters over the last two weeks or so to replace the injured Homer Bailey (following a Sam LeCure cameo) and Aaron Harang, and both bring some fantasy potential.

The first, and more permanent of the two is 23-year-old Travis Wood, who grabbed some headlines over the weekend by taking a perfect game into the 9th against the Phillies. His minor league career consists of lots of strikeouts (8.4 K/9), a good amount of ground balls (43.1% ground balls), and more recently very few walks (2.6 BB/9 over the last two seasons), three skills you want every young pitcher to possess. Wood has already made three starts for the Reds, sandwiching a pair of gems around one clunker.

The second of the two is 26-year-old Matt Maloney, who was acquired in the Kyle Lohse deal a few years back. His minor league career is similar to Wood’s in terms of strikeouts (8.7 K/9) and grounders (42.8%), though his track record of good control (2.7 BB/9) is quite a bit longer. In seven career big league starts over the last two seasons (two this year), Maloney has seen his strikeout rate dip, which is not unprecedented.

Baseball America rated Wood and Maloney as the team’s 7th and 8th best prospects coming into the season, saying both were back of the rotation candidates that lacked the pure stuff to be more. I’m a sucker for strikeout lefties, and both of these guys have the ability to post low- to mid-4.00’s ERA with enough wins and enough strikeouts to be serviceable fifth or sixth starters on a fantasy squad. I wouldn’t start them against high caliber offenses, but the NL Central offers enough weak competition to make the duo useful for the duration.

Thirteen of Cincinnati’s first 19 post-All Star break games are against the Nationals, Astros, Brewers, and Pirates, so there’s some decent matchups coming up. Wood is owned in 13% of Yahoo! leagues, Maloney still 0%.