Promotion Watch: J.P. Arencibia
With the Blue Jays in the middle of their annual fade from contention (16-24 since May 20th), there’s a very real chance that the team will look to sell high on All Star John Buck and his career (.351 wOBA, 1.4 WAR) year. He’s scheduled to become a free agent after the season and is dangerously close to falling out of Type-B status, meaning he could walk with Toronto receiving nothing in return. They already have a competent backup in Jose Molina, but more importantly, they have a big time prospect mashing in Triple-A.
J.P. Arencibia, the 21st overall pick in the 2007 draft, is currently hitting .317/.366/.641 with 26 doubles and 21 homers in 306 plate appearances at Las Vegas, his second season at the level. He’s performing better away from hitter friendly Cashman Field (.365/.403/.730), and MinorLeagueSplits.com has his park neutralized batting line at .301/.350/.605, obviously still stellar. It’s quick the rebound for Arencibia, who hit just .236/.284/.444 at the same level and in the same park last season.
The former Tennessee Volunteer dropped out of Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list this season after they ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game rior to the 2009 season. Our own Marc Hulet didn’t lose the faith, ranking Arencibia as the game’s 86th best prospect this March. The crew at BA said the 24-year-old’s “swing is long and his bat speed is ordinary,” but he still “could provide 20-25 homers on an annual basis and solid defense.”
Even if it comes with the caveat of a .230 or .240 AVG, a backstop that smacks 20 homers has plenty of fantasy value. Miguel Olivo has always seemed to find a fantasy home despite a similar skill set, right down to the hacktastic approach. In fairness, Arencibia boasts a career high walk rate this year and has steadily improved ever so slightly in that department through the years, but I don’t think we’ll ever see even a 50 walk season out of him.
If you’re hurting for a catcher, especially in an AL-only setup or a deep mixed league, Arencibia’s a great guy to stash on the bench for the inevitable call up. At the very least, I would expect the Jays to bring him up in September as an audition for next year’s starting job.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
Already been stashed. I’m in a 2 catcher format and started the year with Wieters, Jeff Clement, Buster Posey, and Carlos Santana. Clement quickly turned into Chris Snyder and Wieters turned into Jason Bay about 2 weeks ago. Suffice it to say stashing has worked out for me.
Quick question:
I am in a keeper league. Not aiming to compete until next year at the earliest. I’m very deep at pitching and have only Russ Martin and Saltalamacchia as backstops. It’s a 2 catcher league. I can acquire Arencibia for Drabek. Good move?
Drabek probably has more long-term value, but JPA *should* have a full-time job in 2011.
Drabek is still about 2 years away. While Arencibia should be up for sure next year. If you want to be competative next year then do it. Arencibia’s positional value will surpass Drabek’s with you being deep at pitching
Arencibia or Tyler Flowers for 2011 and beyond?
Easily Arencibia.
Flowers wont get you a decent average, or walk rate. Arencibia may have some discipline issues, but will draw some walks. Flowers also has been a low BABIP player his whole career in the minors which will lead to a low average in the majors