“Eighty percent of success is showing up.”
–Woody Allen

That sentiment——if not the exact percentage attached to it——holds true for fantasy baseball. Think about it: The most talented prospect in the world can’t do anything to help your fantasy team if there’s no chance he’ll sniff a big-league job any time soon. Conversely, a less-talented, lesser-known minor leaguer on the verge of a call-up has the opportunity to get his foot in the door and contribute sooner rather than later, which can lead to the best type of success: the unexpected kind. Just because the production isn’t projected to be as rewarding doesn’t mean it can’t be, which is why these players need to be monitored. Because in the deepest of deep leagues, opportunity only knocks so often.

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While the New York Mets have produced plenty of slap stick comedy in recent years — Bernazard The Brawler’s WWE alter-ego, Mystery Diagnosis: Carlos Beltran, and Oliver Perez, aspiring (and flailing) $12 million LOOGY — it only feels like the club from Queens has been presided over by Abbott and Costello.

Sandy Alderson has replaced Omar Minaya as GM, and Terry Collins moves from minor league field coordinator to manager, ending Jerry Manuel’s tenure. But a question that so vexed Abbott looms large for the Mets: What’s on second? Luis Castillo got the boot, and 21-year-old Ruben Tejada has been sent AAA after an ultra-aggressive promotion to the majors last year. That still leaves a gaggle of middle infielders vying to be Jose Reyes‘ DP partner. Here’s a quick look at the contenders, listed by fantasy relevance, along with their respective ZiPS projections for 2011.

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Identifying and acquiring the top rookie pitchers are one of fantasy’s great challenges, so let’s take a look at some the youngsters set to cut their teeth in the Junior Circuit this summer…

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Now that Matt Garza has been shipped to Chicago’s north side, we know for (almost) certain that Jeremy Hellickson will start the season in Tampa’s five-man rotation. The 23-year-old (24 in April) made four spot starts and six relief appearances for the big league team last year, pitching to a 3.88 FIP (3.47 ERA) with 8.17 K/9 and 1.49 uIBB/9 in 36.1 IP. He was a little homer prone, giving up five in those innings (1.24 HR/9), but that’s to be expected from a rookie in the AL East.

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* Anyone not named Billy Butler and Joakim Soria, obviously.

Over the last two days we’ve look at Kansas City’s big league roster to see if anyone still on it is worth drafting in a fantasy league (pitchers and position players). Today we’ll wrap up this series by looking at some players in the team’s minor league system, universally considered the best in the game. I’m going to limit this to guys expected to start the 2011 season at or above the Double-A level, though jumps from Single-A to the big leagues do happen on occasion. I’m not going to bother with the “Verdict: Yes/No” stuff because I’m generally opposed to drafting prospects in anything less than a keeper league, instead I’ll just look at each to see if they could be useful in 2011.

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September is a great time for non-contenders to call up some young players and give them playing time to see what they’re made of, but it’s not often that a contender calls up a rookie and throws him to the wolves in the middle of a division race. That’s exactly what the Braves did last night with righthander Brandon Beachy, who took the place of the injured Jair Jurrjens and allowed three runs (one earned) in 4.1 innings of work in Philadelphia.

Given the hostile environment and general awesomeness that is the Phillies right now, it’s a more than respectable performance for a kid that wasn’t even drafted out of Indiana Wesleyan University in 2008. Bryan Smith did fine job of introducing you to Beachy and reviewing last night’s performance, so I’m going to skip that stuff and get to the fantasy portion of our program.

Jurrjen’s has been diagnosed with a “small horizontal meniscus tear” in his knee and even though he expects to make his next start, Beachy will prepare himself for the outing just in case. That start would come Sunday at the Nationals, and in the event that he gets another start after that, it could come at home against the Phillies in the second to last game of the season.

Obviously Beachy’s not going to come in and blow anyone away or anything like that, so the only reason to consider him for your roster this late in the season is if you absolutely need a win or have to roll the dice to get the ERA and WHIP down. That’s the situation I was in last week when I had to pick up and start Chris Narveson and Jeremy Bonderman on Sunday out of complete desperation. Needless to say, my season’s over.

The important thing to remember is that the Braves are approaching desperation mode, so if the rookie struggles at all Bobby Cox is likely to have a real quick hook. That makes a win less likely, negating a huge chunk of Beachy’s value. Despite a monster 11.2 K/9 in the minors this year, it would be careless to grab him with the expectation of improving your strikeout column by that much. The best advice I can give is to simply play it by ear, and if you need someone to make that desperation start on Sunday, Beachy’s not a terrible option. Assuming he actually makes the start, of course.

*obvious joke title is obvious

Less than nine months after being the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay trade, 22-year-old Kyle Drabek will make his first big league start tomorrow night against the Orioles in Baltimore. Doug’s son just wrapped his first season in the Blue Jays’ organization, one in which he pitched to a 3.87 FIP with 7.33 K/9 in 27 starts (162 IP, a career high by just four innings) for the team’s Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire.

The statistical performance isn’t overwhelming, especially for a top prospect, but to understand how good Drabek can be you need to know what kind of stuff the kid brings to the table. ESPN’s Keith Law scouting Drabek during his last start, a tough luck loss in the playoffs in which he allowed one run on three hits and two walks in six innings of work, striking out five. Here’s a snippet of KLaw’s write-up from that outing (you need an Insider account to read the whole thing)…

… Wednesday night he brought the best stuff I’ve seen (or heard of) from him, with two plus-plus pitches and an aggressive approach. He started out 93-97 in the first inning and was 91-96 by the end of his outing, hitting 97 at least three times over the first two frames. His power curveball at 84-86 was a big league out pitch, with depth and a very sharp break — and he threw it for strikes in addition to burying it for swings and misses.

He barely used — or needed — his straight changeup, but it’s also not yet on par with the other two pitches. He worked to both sides of the plate and overpowered most of the hitters in Trenton’s weak lineup. Drabek takes a long stride toward the plate and generates great arm speed from it, although he doesn’t rotate his hips much and is off the rubber very quickly. I’m more concerned by his tendency to throw across his body when going to his glove side because of how he cuts himself off in his landing. Those two pitches do give him ace potential that I hadn’t seen from him, although the lack of a solid third offering and the minor delivery issues probably give him a realistic ceiling just below that.

Clearly, Drabek has the pure stuff needed to succeed in the big leagues, it’s just a question of whether or not he can take that next step, and how quickly he can do it. The big problem this year was walks; his 3.8 BB/9 in 2010 isn’t horrible, but certainly not what you usually see out of elite pitching prospects. Drabek is now two years out from Tommy John surgery, so his command should have come back by now. For what it’s worth, his BB/9 was a full walk lower at 2.8 last season and 3.8 before his surgery.

Chances are your league is deep in the playoffs now, so the idea of rolling the dice with a complete unknown – granted, a high-upside unknown – might not sit well with some. The Orioles are a below average hitting team against fastballs (-15.1 wFB) and one of the worst against curveballs (-14.1 wCB), Drabek’s two bread-and-butter pitches. Of course it’s not that simple, but if the righty avoids the rookie jitters and manages to throw like he’s capable of (and not overthrow, that’s the big thing), he’s a very good chance that he’ll have one of those blow-you-away debuts.

If you have a comfortable lead in ERA and WHIP (or are way behind, for that matter) and can afford to take a bit of a hit in those categories in exchange for some additional strikeouts and possibly a win, I can’t recommend Drabek enough. He’s owned in just 4% of Yahoo! leagues, so there’s not much urgency to go out and grab him before everyone else. Keep an eye out for the O’s lineup tomorrow; If Buck Showalter decides to go heavy on the September call-ups for some reason, then I’d grab Drabek before the game if your league allows it. Either way, Drabek’s real fantasy impact won’t come until at least next season.

Bryan Smith already did a wonderful job breaking down Aroldis Chapman and his role with the Reds down the stretch, but now let’s examine the fantasy impact of the next big Cuban star.

Chapman, 22, is coming up to pitch out of Dusty Baker’s bullpen in September, so right off the bat his value is diminished. Very few non-closer relievers are worth carrying on your roster in traditional leagues, unless maybe you’re in a roto league and looking to vulture some wins late in the season. With that said, Chapman could mirror a Hong-Chih Kuo type in the best case scenario; a super-high strikeout lefthanded reliever not limited to LOOGY work (I’m not counting his most recent work as the closer).

I doubt Chapman will be able to match Kuo’s stingy walk rate (2.77 K/9), at least initially; he’s walked 3.6 men per nine innings as a reliever in the minors, 4.9 overall, but it’s worth noting that he’s walked just four in a dozen appearances this month. The rest of the goods are there. He’s death to lefthanders, striking out 53 against just 15 walks with a 51.5% ground ball rate in 32.2 IP in the minors, and good against righties (9.63 K/9 in 66.1 IP). It’s easy to understand why he dominates same-sided batters with his top shelf velocity and slider, not to mention his all arms and legs delivery.

But how useful is he for us fantasy owners? Dusty Baker is than willing to trust young pitchers, which works in Chapman’s favor, but realistically we’re looking at maybe 3-4 innings a week. There’s almost a zero chance of him usurping Francisco Cordero without the help of an injury, and even in that case Nick Masset and Arthur Rhodes are probably first in line to fill-in. If you’re league counts holds, then maybe he’s worth more of a consideration.

Despite the hype, I’d tread carefully with Chapman. The reward is very limited given his role, but the blowup potential is pretty damn big at this point in time. He’s owned in 20% of Yahoo! leagues, but it’s too much of a gamble for me this late in the season. With September right around the corner, it’s a too little, too late for Chapman to have any real fantasy impact.

A pair of recent call-ups, one recognizable, another not so much…

Cameron Maybin | OF | Marlins | 4% owned

In their never-ending pursuit of acquiring every available outfielder on the market, the Giants opened up a spot for the once highly touted Maybin by taking on Cody Ross. Maybin has certainly had his chances in the big leagues, with a .307 wOBA in 489 plate appearances spread across four seasons. It’s hard to believe that he’s still just 23, so we definitely can’t tag him as a bust yet.

For fantasy purposes, Maybin’s greatest value comes from steals, as he has the ability to swipe a half-dozen or more from here on out. He won’t help much in regular old head-to-head leagues, but if you’re in a roto scoring league, those extra steals will certainly help.

Ivan Nova | SP | Yankees | 1%

Nova pitched well in his first career start last night, limiting the Blue Jays to just two runs over 5.1 innings of work. He was yanked a bit early – just 73 pitches – because there was some alleged beanball nonsense going on and Joe Girardi didn’t want to subject his rookie righthander to anything like that. Seems kinda lame, but it is what it is. The Yankees have not committed a rotation spot to Nova going forward, but they have indicated that he will make a few more starts over the next few weeks as the team tries to keep their regular starters rested. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he takes Javy Vazquez’s job outright at some point, given the latter’s disintegrating stuff.

The 23-year-old righty won’t blow you away with sky high strikeout totals or microscopic ERA’s, instead he’s more of a matchup starter that post a low-4.00’s ERA and could steal you some wins given the lineup and bullpen around him. If you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league, keep an eye on Nova’s schedule and see what’s in store. The Yanks have both the White Sox and A’s coming up, hardly powerhouse offenses.

Update: The Yanks just announced that Vazquez is being skipped the next time through the rotation, and Nova will start on Sunday at the White Sox.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

One of the six players they received from the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade, the Athletics are actually Chris Carter’s third organization. He was originally a 15th round pick by the White Sox in 2005, but they traded him straight up for Carlos Quentin in December of 2007. Eleven days later, Carter was swapped as part of the package for Haren, and 968 days after that, he made his Major League debut.

Before the trade, Carter slugged .522 (.224 ISO) with a 12.5 BB% and 24.0 K% as a 20-year-old in the Low-A South Atlantic League, certainly strong numbers for a kid playing 100+ games in a season for the first time. His power output exploded the next season, unsurprising in the notoriously hitter friendly High-A Cal League. Carter’s .310 ISO led the circuit by 40 points thanks to his 39 homers, and he still maintained a solid 12.9 BB%. The problem were the strikeouts, which clocked in at 30.8 K%, second highest in the league. Regardless, Baseball America ranked him the 76th best prospect in the game after the season.

Bumped up to Double-A Midland to start 2009, Carter enjoyed his finest pro season. Not only did he again lead the league in ISO (.239, led by 46 pts), but he still showed the same patient approach (13.8 BB%) while cutting down on the strike threes (24.3 K%). As a reward for his efforts, he received a statistically insignificant 13 game cameo with Triple-A Sacramento at the end of the season. All told, Carter posted career highs across the board in 2009 when he hit .329/.422/.570, and was named the 28th best prospect in baseball by the Baseball America gang after the campaign.

At 6-foot-5 and 230 lbs., Carter certainly passes the eye test as a power hitter. “Home runs always will be Carter’s calling card,” said the BA crew before the season started. “However, he dedicated himself to becoming a more complete hitter and stopped giving away at-bats … With his pure strength and explosive wrists, he still produces light-tower power. Carter can hit balls out of any part of any ballpark, and he’s strong enough to do so without having to sell out for power.” On the downside, they also note that he can get anxious at the plate and tends to jump at breaking balls, something that Carter will obviously have to work on.

Sent back to Triple-A to start the 2010 season, the A’s best prospect hit .262/.368/.531 with 27 homers in 503 plate appearances before getting the call over the weekend. He played his first game last night, going 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts, seeing a total of ten pitches as the A’s lost to Seattle.

Before the season, CHONE projected a .232/.311/.393 batting line for Carter, while ZiPS rest of the season projection has him at .233/.317/.416. Those high strikeout guys can have a tough time adjusting to big league pitching when they first get called up (cough Mike Stanton cough), so those predictions shouldn’t come as a surprise. Currently eligible at just 1B, Carter is playing LF for the A’s, so it’s only a matter of time before he gains eligibility there. He actually started his career as a third baseman (and even played a game at short in the minors), but that boat is long gone. 1B/OF will be his primary spots from here on out, and he isn’t particularly good at either (not that it matters here).

Given his home park and the offense around him, Carter’s fantasy value is likely to be low over the next two months and probably even next season. Given the rather mammoth production coming out of first baseman these days (seriously, 1B across the league are hitting .269/.354/.458) and some of the strong outfielders out there, I wouldn’t consider Carter for anything more than a injury fill-in at this point. If he goes on a tear and hits five homers in a week like he’s capable of, then by all means grab him. I’m just not confident in his ability to come up and produce right away.