This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Tigers don’t feature many high-ceiling prospects on the cusp of big league action but they have some young players that could provide some decent short-term production.

1. Buck Farmer, RHP: Farmer made four MLB appearances in 2014, which is pretty impressive considering he opened the year in Low-A ball. The 2013 fifth round pick isn’t flashy but he has the strong frame needed to develop into a back-end, innings-eating hurler. After spending time at four different levels in 2014, he should open the year in Triple-A. Two new rotation candidates, Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon, come with some question marks so it may not be too long into the season before Farmer gets another shot.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The bad news is that the Indians don’t have many intriguing prospect arms. The good news is that the organization boasts some solid offensive prospects and could receive respectable emergency coverage at any position on the field.

1. Francisco Lindor, SS: Jose Ramirez, now a sophomore, laid claim to the shortstop gig in 2014 and enters the year as the favorite to play every day at the position in ’15. However, he has yet to prove himself at the big league level at the plate and in the field so Lindor, the organization’s top prospect, could easily slide into the gig with a strong start to the year. The 21-year-old Puerto Rican infielder split the 2014 season between Double-A and Triple-A and should develop into a plus defender in the Majors. He doesn’t have much power but he hits for a decent average, occasionally hits the ball out of the park and can steal 20+ bases.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshmen contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The White Sox loaded up on talent from the 2014-15 free agent market and will field a veteran-heavy club in 2015. However, the organization also boasts some intriguing upper-level prospect talent that could help bolster the 25-man roster in the coming year.

1. Carlos Sanchez, 2B: This freshman second baseman has a chance to enter 2015 as the only rookie on a club looking to make it deep into the playoffs after investing heavily on the free agent market. He’ll have to contend with a couple of off-season signings in Emilio Bonifacio and (retread) Gord Beckham but neither of the veteran players is overly well suited to regular action. Sanchez, 22, doesn’t have loud tools but he’s a smart player and he drove the ball better in 2014 at the Triple-A level. He’s historically shown an ability to hit for average and could steal 15-20 bags in a full season.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshmen contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Jays have two or three players that could be significant contributors to the club in 2015 but the list drops off dramatically from there and features mostly role players. The majority of the high-ceiling depth in the system — outside the Top 3 — resides in the lower levels.

1. Daniel Norris, LHP: The Jays re-made the offence during the offseason but the pitching remains largely the same, which really can’t be viewed as anything but a negative at this point. The lack of movement is good for young hurlers like Norris and Aaron Sanchez, though. The rookie southpaw currently projects as the fifth starter in the rotation even though management is publicly stating that they think he needs more seasoning. The truth is that they’re probably hoping Norris runs away with the job in the spring. He has a chance to be a No. 2 or 3 starter in the Majors but he still struggles with consistency and his command.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshmen contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Rays have some interesting names ready to challenge for permanent big league gigs, but their ceilings are fairly modest and there may not be a star player in the bunch.

Steven Souza, OF: As the key return in the WIl Myers trade this past off-season, the Rays clearly value Souza as a potential impact player. However, the outfield prospect will turn 26 in April and has eight years of minor league experience under his belt as a late-bloomer. With that said, he’s shown the ability to hit for average, power and steal bases so it’s easy to understand the interest in his potential. He could have some 20-20 (HR-SB) seasons in his prime, but those years are just about upon him.

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Last year for my FG+ article I created a methodology to find unheralded prospects similar to Ben Zobrist and Matt Carpenter by looking at recent minor league walk, strikeout and extra base hit numbers. I named my metric ZOBRIST and it performed better than I expected. I identified 10 players to watch for during the 2014 season and few had good MLB seasons like Kole Calhoun, Marcus Semien and Scott Van Slyke. I have decided to look again for similar players in 2015 with a few changes to the evaluations.

One issue I noticed when I went back and looked at the data was how one of the three traits (power, walks and strikeouts) could hurt the hitters chances for success. A hitter could have no strikeouts, a ton of walks and zero power so they could rate high with my metric. The problem is that the complete lack of power would get exposed in the majors. I needed to set a minimum level for each of the three stats. I use Chris St. John’s minor league walk and strikeout values and a replace level power numbers to set a minimum baseline each hitter must reach.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshmen contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: New York doesn’t have the deepest system but it continues to produce big league contributors and its Class of 2015 could be one of the best in the Majors — if the rookies are given enough playing time to strut their stuff.

1. Jacob Lindgren, LHP: The club’s second-round pick in 2014, Lindgren allowed just 12 hits in 25.0 innings of work while pitching at four different levels of affiliated ball. The under-sized lefty also showed his dominance by striking out 48 batters and kept the ball almost solely on the mound when contact was actually made. Lindgren and Luis Severino (see below) could make for a dominating tandem of high-leverage relievers in the years to come.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The massive roster overhaul by Padres’ front office has shed some prospects in trades and block others with newly-acquired veteran players. The outfield is especially deep with nine outfielders on the 40-man roster, which doesn’t bode well for the two outfield prospects on the list below (one of whom isn’t even on the 40-man).

1. Matt Wisler, RHP: Like the outfield, San Diego has beefed up the pitching depth, which could leave Wisler in Triple-A for much of the season. However, a number of the pitchers are well-acquainted with the disabled list (such as Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson) so that depth will likely be tested in 2015… and this young hurler is tops in the system. Even if he doesn’t break into the starting rotation this year, though, Wisler could make an impact in the bullpen where his stuff could play up and thrive.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Giants’ freshman class of 2015 doesn’t have a lot of depth but it has a strong hitting prospect, a number of capable arms and even a guy that can make things happen with his feet — when he manages to get on base. All in all it should be decent but unspectacular.

1. Andrew Susac, C: Veteran backstop Buster Posey has been seeing increased playing time at first base to try and shield him from injury. Susac could be the guy that finally pushes the former MVP to first permanently. The rookie backstop is a competent defender and has enough hitting skill to become an above-average hitter for a catcher. Because he’s lost some development time to injuries in the past, it will be understandable if the Giants want Susac to open the year back in Triple-A. But if back-up Henry Sanchez struggles again with the bat, it may be too tempting for the front office to give the freshman a shot on this perennial-playoff team.

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I am huge proponent of the pitch type work which has led to the Arsenal Score here are FanGraphs. One possible issue with pitch type data is a reasonable amount of data needs to be collected before any conclusions could be draw. I am going to take it a step further today and look for MLB ready fastballs knowing just the pitcher’s velocity and break. Just knowing how the pitch’s speed and trajectory, some conclusions can be drawn on how the pitcher will perform in the future.

This past summer, I found how to estimate a pitcher’s fastball ground ball (GB%) and swinging strike rate (SwStr%) knowing just the velocity and break. The ground ball rate was the same for all pitches while the swinging strike rate varied a bit. Well, I went into meld/average mode to come up with a method to find a simple way to determine how productive a fastball may be knowing its current break and speed.

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