Archive for Prospects

This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The club suffered through a nightmare season in 2014 thanks to injuries but the club should be better positioned to weather the storm in 2015, thanks to the impending arrivals of a number of key prospects.

1. Alex Gonzalez, RHP: The Rangers first round draft pick from 2013, Gonzalez will likely open 2015 back in Double-A but he’s a spring training invitee and a strong spring could help him earn one of the first promotions to offset an injury or disappointing performance. The Rangers have some pitching depth entering the year but the starting rotation has some question marks in the No. 4 and 5 slots, as well as a couple of other arms with injury concerns. Gonzalez is fairly polished and has good command/control, which helps his average-ish fastball play up. The young hurler also gets his fair share of ground-ball outs. He has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: Seattle has a lot of young players residing in the upper levels of the season that could provide a shot in the arm to the club throughout the season as it looks to take a shot at the playoffs in 2015.

1. D.J. Peterson, 1B: The club’s first round draft pick from 2013, Peterson shouldn’t require much seasoning in the minors. He reached Double-A last season, slugged 31 home runs in the process, and has a .914 OPS in his pro career. Logan Morrison currently projects as the everyday first baseman in Seattle but his career has been derailed by injuries. He’s entering his prime so he had best take advantage of that or Peterson could wrestle the gig away by mid season. The prospect is a legit middle-of-the-order threat.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: Four of the five players listed below joined the Athletics via trades during the recent off-season. There isn’t a superstar-in-the-making among the bunch but the club has impressive, young depth at a variety of positions — both on offence and on the mound.

1. Sean Nolin, LHP: Traded to Oakland in the offseason Josh Donaldson deal, Nolin is a promising southpaw starter with the ceiling of a No. 4 starter. He should benefit from the move to a more spacious park where his fly-ball tendencies will be less detrimental. He’s probably been MLB ready for at least half a season but the upper level depth, as well as an injury, kept Nolin in the minors — except for one late season MLB appearance. With that said, he still has some work to do to reach his full potential, including improved command.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Angels system has been one of the worst for a while now (even though it produced Mike Trout) but things are starting to look up for the organization. There aren’t any high-ceiling players on the immediate horizon but there are some solid arms and role players that should begin surfacing in 2015.

1. Cam Bedrosian, RHP: Bedrosian rocketed through the minors in 2014 after he began the year in A-ball. He spent the bulk of the year in Double-A but also made 17 big league appearances and set the stage for a larger role in 2015. The starter-turned-reliever is a hard-thrower that has high-leverage potential and could eventually rack up saves for the Angels like his father Steve Bedrosian did for the Braves, Giants, Phillies and Twins. Huston Street will certainly be handed the ball in the ninth inning in 2015 but Bedrosian could be the heir apparent as soon as 2016 and he might receive the odd opportunity in the year ahead.

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… if this nonsense with his agent(s?) ever clears up.

I feel like Debbie Downer from the classic Saturday Night Live sketch. I found reasons to dislike Yasmany Tomas, and now I’m here trying to find reasons to dislike Hector Olivera. It’s largely because I’m stubborn and would rather die by own fantasy baseball sword than someone else’s. But I haven’t seen any assessment of Olivera’s Cuban National Series (CNS) statistics beyond he hit an impressive .323/.407/.505 in his 10 years in Cuba, so I’ll attempt to expand on this.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Astros don’t have many near-MLB-ready, high-ceiling arms but there are definitely some intriguing hitters on the cusp of reaching the Majors.

1. Mark Appel, RHP: With the trade of Mike Foltynewicz to Atlanta, Appel becomes the pitching prospect in the system with the highest ceiling who is closest to the Majors. He’ll no doubt look to leave the injury concerns and drama from 2014 behind him… and also the dangerous confines of the California League, which led to a 9.74 ERA in 12 starts. Now established in Double-A, he should spend at least a half season there before challenging for a call-up to The Show. If he continues to show his top stuff and stays healthy, Appel has the ceiling of a No. 2/3 starter.

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This is meant to be less of an overly serious analysis as it is an exercise in projecting minor league players in a new and different way. Unfortunately, Chris Mitchell has largely done what I’m about to present, and with more sophistication at that, so I’ll have to strike out the new part. But different? Sure, to an extent.

While Chris’ KATOH predicts a hitter’s probability of major league success by projecting career wins above replacement (WAR) thresholds, my model predicts probability of future success in the context of various career accomplishments: Will he be a better-than-replacement level starter? An All-Star? A future MVP? Ultimately, the exercise is simpler and more qualitative, evaluating strictly AAA stats (rather than all minor league levels, as KATOH does) and making predictions according to various marginal changes in common statistics such as isolated power (ISO), stolen base rate (SB/PA) and age. Think of the model as a series of player comparisons. Also, please think of the model as not a replacement or substitute for KATOH but a complement to it, albeit a less intense one. I will use this tool for analysis, but only infrequently; I recommend you keep up with all of Chris’ KATOH posts (as well as Kiley McDaniels‘ prospect coverage) to fulfill your prospect consumption needs.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Twins have one of the best minor league systems in baseball and the majority of the upper-level talent should reach The Show in 2015 — significantly improving the big league product. Impressively, Minnesota has high ceiling talent both in the field and on the mound.

1. Miguel Sano, 3B: Minnesota will heavily rely on sophomore hitter Kennys Vargas to provide pop in 2015 so the lineup could certainly use some additional thump. After a little additional seasoning, Sano could be that man. In fact, he’d probably already be in the Majors if not for the Tommy John surgery he underwent last year. Incumbent third baseman Trevor Plouffe has been competent at the hot corner for the past few seasons but he’s really only been above replacement level for one season out of the past four. Once Sano reaches the Majors, he has the skill to hit 30+ home runs and to be a true offensive threat for the Twins.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Royals were a surprise team in 2014 but they have the talent coming up through the pipeline to help them sustain that success and avoid becoming “one-year wonders.” The young pitching depth is especially impressive.

1. Brandon Finnegan, LHP: This young lefty went from college student to first round draft pick to MLB playoff pitcher in the span of a few months. Despite his success in 2014, Finnegan is earmarked for the minors to open the 2015 season after the additions of the likes of Kris Medlen and Edinson Volquez. It’s possible that the southpaw will earn a big league bullpen role but he has the potential to develop into a mid-rotation starter. Keeping him stretched out in the minors would allow him to serve as the first man up in the event of an injury to the Top 5.

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I have never thought much about, or given much attention to, FanGraphs’ fan projections. It’s primarily a matter of stubbornness: I run my own projections, and I develop my own strategy, so why should I listen to you? At least there’s a trace of rationale behind it: I know how I created my projections (whether or not they’re any good is a topic for another day), but I have no idea how you created yours. Thus, I am more likely to blindly trust a computer-generated projection system such as Steamer instead of random fan projections.

Still, there is a sort of bizarre, secondhand wisdom to fan projections. For every person who is high on a particular player, there could be another person who is equally-and-oppositely down on him. Solicit and aggregate enough fan projections and you could produce a very reasonable prediction of a player’s performance by sheer chance.

Which is why fan projections intrigue me. If, for example, Steamer predicts the most likely outcome from a wide range of possible outcomes for a player, then the fans convey the anticipated outcome for a player. The difference between them, you could say, is what amounts to a market inefficiency (aka a price distortion). The larger the difference, the greater the inefficiency. We see these inefficiencies arise every year — 2014’s most prevalent example is probably Corey Kluber — and they typically manifest because of a lack of information about certain players.

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